Stormchaserchuck1

+NAO in January also favors country-wide warmth A lot of these models just take what's happening and initialize it out.. You probably have to pay to get really good products. 5 +NAO periods since January, so now all the seasonal models have +NAO. I would guess their forecasting accuracy for that specific thing is not that high. That's why I like to look at Natural Gas futures primarily. They crushed the Euro last Winter.

Another day with highs in the upper 80s in Florida. I left a few days before the June heat wave began. Talk about good timing. For all the talk about how warm Atlantic SSTs are, they are still not really comparable to all the ridging happening up north and on the West Coast. Maybe the AMO is not decadal, and it's just a reflection of warmer global conditions..

Told you guys it would bust warmer.. +EPO patterns are often underestimated on medium range models, especially when coupled with +NAO. As long as it doesn't rain, low pressure over Alaska keeps the ridge progressing higher and higher shorter term..

Subsurface was turning positive pretty early in 2023: In the central-ENSO region (west-based) March-June 2023 was greater positive than even most of the El Nino event. We have a colder subsurface this year, although it is starting to warm again in the last few days. Look at this -PNA though since the central-subsurface went cold in March this year This is while we've had +Neutral at the surface.

This region has the highest correlation to Winter NAO Now we are going to be warming this further in the next few days with a record breaking ridge developing over the eastern part of the box: We'll be looking at a pretty high index reading by mid-July.

SSTs also aren't super above average in the tropics like they were a few months ago.. as the averages climbed, the deviation evened out a bit. All the heat is migrating to the N. Atlantic, where a strong High pressure is suppose to set up for the next few weeks continuing the warmth there..

That area in the Atlantic where the max ridge is going to occur actually has a strong correlation to the following Winters NAO (warm SSTs there in the Summer lead +NAO Winters).

July is going to be a very warm month for the CONUS. This is going to make Dec-July one of the warmest on record, if not the warmest for the lower 48. Roll forward of 30 top analogs going back to 1948 (which is 40% of the dataset) shows a ridiculous strong signal for the following September through March: +3-4F anomalies over a 7-month period, covering 40% of the dataset is pretty ridiculous signal. Law of averages says it should be ~+1F (since I am using + and - years, somewhat muting the overall warming trend). I guess here locally continuum trumps. I've been waiting for the June map to update, once it does ill post comparison to what we have seen vs analogs used above.

Climate models have a heavy ENSO bias.. they didn't estimate that the subsurface would cool so much going into the Winter last year. I agree with what they are showing now.. -PNA/+NAO. There is going to be a 601-602dm ridge in the N. Atlantic in the coming days over the area that has a pretty big summertime SST correlation to Wintertime NAO.. warm water there favors +NAO. It seems like recent seasonal model runs have been going more +NAO. It may also be that they just weigh heavily on trends.. as this will be our 5th solid +NAO burst since the start of the year (negative H5 over Greenland and Davis Strait), which was more than the last few years combined. It also seems like the Sun spikes in May really led some good +NAO..

12z GEFS showing 601 to 602dm off the Northeast coast July 12. I bet that is record breaking..

>600dm off the NE coast July 12-13.. all with +NAO/+EPO. That particular pattern (+epo), favors temperatures busting warmer than forecasted.

I only got up to 87-88 today in Florida lol

Looking like the return of the 594dm ridge July 12-13 +epo/+nao for the next 15 days should keep us well above average.

09-10 only maxed out at +1.6, but was followed by 2 La Nina years, one being -1.6. 23-24 is reversing to La Nina too. 72-73 was followed by 3 La Nina's 82-83 was followed by 2 La Nina's right in the middle of +PDO 97-98 was followed by 3 La Nina's. But after the 15-16 El Nino, we basically had 7 years of -PNA (8 if you include 23-24). It just seems like since the 1970s, Strong El Nino events are more of a long term La Nina state than the former.

Well the Winter.. I was posting a 12-month average since 1998. The Winter RNA pattern has been especially strong after we turn the corner for coldest time of the year (~Jan 27th), this is a ridiculous anomaly for a 7-consecutive year period covering a 2-month span.. +120dm. Do you have any idea why Strong El Nino's are head starting long term La Nina states? The 15-16 one was 1:8. I haven't yet figured it out, except to say that the base ENSO state is more long term and a +wave within that long term state is followed by an equal -wave.

I just know that there is a PNA correlation. CDC correlation composites show that the PDO is higher correlated than Nino 4, 3.4, 3, 1.2, but if you compare it to subsurface conditions, ENSO correlates higher than the PDO in the N. Pacific. Perma-La Nina state has been ongoing since 1998: I'm not really sure what you mean by east of the equator.. can you clarify? Do you mean east of the dateline? I disagree. The warming in the region you are referring is actually very +AMO-related, and is more an after-effect of things happening globally https://ibb.co/C8kZdkV

-PNA Winter of 72-73 had a cold subsurface too.

Subsurface was also nowhere near the surface last year.

Yeah, but the MEI uses OLR, 850mb winds, 200mb winds.. I've compared them all and still find subsurface temps pure have the greatest effect.

Nino 4 functions as a continuum. It moves up or down over several years, vs the east region which are more in flux year-to-year. The major warming last year is taking a long time to change, and the global oceans are record warm, and the SOI hasn't topped +3 monthly since Apr 2023. So surface factors are holding onto warm anomalies. I found the greatest correlation to ENSO effects is about 100-220m below the surface. Last year the El Nino started east-based and took a while to shift to west-based closer to the Winter. The actual pattern acted like it was an east-based El Nino through the entire event so take that for what it's worth.. the near-surface holding onto warm anomalies is more for the western surface ENSO region vs eastern regions..

The atmospheric response is because the subsurface is La Nina. I can't stress this enough. The discovery is an amazing leap forward! 95-96 was a +PNA Winter. +PNA is not a function of La Nina. But the subsurface for 95-96 was not La Nina, it was ENSO Neutral: 00-01 was another +PNA Winter. Subsurface this year was also Neutral in the central ENSO region, not La Nina: You can look it all up here. https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/ I made an index once of subsurface vs surface and found 25% higher correlation to the N. Pacific pattern, going back to 1979.

Here is 2008-2022 40% of those Winters were warm, but cold weather was sitting in the Upper Midwest for a while there..

At least he offers an alternative view.. I get what he's saying, it doesn't seem like locally especially with not super hot Summers, like the trend is that significant. Wintertime temps in the 50s is because of ridging and warm fronts, you can always tell that severe cold is always possible. It just hasn't been able to dig since the late-1970s. I "feel" it as a wave, and this wave is warm. Maybe the ultimate thing is a super warm endless wave, but there a lot of snowless years recorded in the old journals from the 1700s and 1800s, and that's really not that far off from what's going on now, less than I would think..

Minneapolis had 5 cold Winters 2018-2022: I thought they were due for some warmer Winters: I'm not sure that streak is over.. if anything, I think they are "due" to continue going warmer for the next few years, if you look at the longer decadal trend.

Yes, it's due to the La Nina-like pattern that has dominated for the last 25 years. High pressure in the N. Pacific has kept the normally cold coastal waters cooler than average, although I'm surprised SSTs are actually below normal for that whole 25-year period, considering everything that has been happening globally.