Stormchaserchuck1

That old Mexico heat wave is really interesting. I thought the SE ridge would flex in the Spring, as things seemed to be trending drier in the Winter, we were having a lot of cloudless days. It's been the opposite, wet and cool. But the Hadley Cell expansion energy appears to still be there, just little further south. I think at some point it will flex over the CONUS. Any other analysis you have of the heat wave there?

They always overestimate instability parameters, and underestimate sunlight and actual heating. Last year severe wx started on June 24th, and July was active. This Spring is kind of following the same trend as last year so maybe July will be our severe wx month again..

Another matter of concern is if the strong -PDO pattern does set up for Hurricane season, it could favor a pattern that supports GOM and FL hits, as storms track under the mean ridge in the northern latitudes. https://ibb.co/QvQ5rzm For east coast hits, you want that ridge further east over New Foundland and SE Canada.

I think recent trends favor warmer than normal, since 85% of our months are ending up this way now on average. And we are having peaks, where we hit 80 in DC on Jan 26th, which was the first time ever for I think 12-1 to 2-28 (the coldest day of the year on average is Jan 27th). I am no way getting the super warm Winter vibe though, part of that is the N. Atlantic SST index that I monitor for the following Winter's NAO is slightly negative, and it's been a temperate Spring, which went against the SE ridge trend that I thought would prevail. Arctic ice is also all the way down to 14th lowest. I also found the SW, US leads us a lot of the time, and when they were getting anomalous High pressure all the time 1995-2020, that boded bad for future Winter's, but the last 2 years troughs have really dug deep into the SW, which has broken that trend a little bit.

Stronger La Nina, record -PDO, record +AMO, Solar max, and probable +QBO (+QBO/La Nina combo favors strong 10mb vortex and +AO), this definitely looks like a warmer Winter, but it was in the 40s in May so you never know.. sometimes La Nina patterns can be blocky.

Yeah, crazy -PDO right now. Some of the SST maps were showing +5c anomalies south of the Aleutian islands. The PDO correlated with the weather pattern more than ENSO in this past Winter, and the historical correlation composites actually shows that this is the case most of the time! (There are just a few months where ENSO correlates greater, even though I think the ENSO effect has been strong for the last 70 years). The Earth is "tranquil" right now, so I think that stuff is probably amplified. Good signal for Summer heat in New England.. +0.3 is pretty strong for a 3-month average, going back to 1948. https://ibb.co/4YjNgPg ^I think the CPC currently has a similar temperature map as their Summer forecast. (Remember, the map I posted above the correlation is opposite) October is a really strong map for temperature correlation. https://ibb.co/4fLngZK

La Nina is coming in real nicely on CDC daily composites. Starting east-based like the last few we've had since 2000. https://freeimage.host/i/JLxCQov

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Central-subsurface is holding -4c anomalies.. I think we heading for a Moderate La Nina per the ONI (Keep in mind the global warming trend, which is about +0.3c for ENSO since the 1950s.. that's why last Winter's -PDO pattern was such an anomaly, and heightened the importance of the -PDO in these recent times..)

We did see a trend break 2 years ago when there were 14 NS and 2 MH in a La Nina year. I'm not saying the same thing will happen again, but a lot has to go right to get 20+..

Wow.. 90 in Dulles just like that. These -PNA patterns don't disappoint for warmer than forecasted temperatures.

It's possible.. this is a pretty decent correlation. https://ibb.co/hKxYby3 https://ibb.co/C7Pf8FK https://ibb.co/KNws8fF

The NAO is much harder to predict than the Pacific, and it could be a -NAO Winter, as the trend for Greenland blocks has picked up over the last few Winter's. The 10mb vortex could be strong with La nina/+qbo combo, but a south, or SE-based -NAO may not be hard to come by. In the 1960s/1970s, -NAO's picked up in the later part of the -PDO phase, then +NAO's picked up in the later part of the +PDO phase in the 1990s.. I monitor May - Sept N. Atlantic SSTs, as they are a really good predictor of the Wintertime NAO state, and so far they are a little negative in prediction (~ -0.5).

Models suggest a strong -PNA (Aleutian High) for the next 10 days, so the warm weather there should continue..

^That's one heck of a -PDO! approaching +5c anomalies. I did some work in the beginning of this thread, linking -PDO with increased activity, and it was a just a question of if it would hold for Aug-Sept-Oct. It appears we are well on that way. Another thing with the PDO is, it has a Summer/Fall correlation with 500mb SE Canada ridging, which is the typical pattern for Gulf of Mexico hits, as storms track more E->W under the ridge https://ibb.co/bBzXWtq (correlation is default positive, so opposite) The PDO actually historically correlates with favorable/unfavorable H5 patterns more than ENSO does.

Keep in mind the global warming trend, which is about +0.3 for ENSO since the 1950s. I think subsurface is strong, but not quite -5c to -6c like you see in Strong developing Nina's. I'll go with borderline Moderate/Strong, and say it hits -1.5c on the ONI

It may also take 10-15 more years for the Atlantic to cool down, if the AMO ever does switch phases. Right now it's positive and still strengthening, but history through the 1900s shows that it does have decadal trends.

There's nothing globally that's happening that is different from the decadal trend, so I like the forecast. In 2020, I started realizing that we were "evening out" one year to another (Feb 2020 would be +pna so Feb 2021 would be -pna, etc.), and I do think we are "due" for hotter weather in the Spring/Summer, partially because of how much cooler it has been relative to the trend in recent years. if not this year, then future years.. March 2012 was super warm, then Summer 2012 broke the record for arctic ice melt, so maybe as that starts heavily progressing again we will go warmer?

We've held -4c in the central subsurface for some time, which implies at least a Moderate La Nina coming. Lower chance, but still possible that it goes Strong.

The global warming trend was always thought to be +PDO/El Nino.. some people have linked this recent -PDO with it, but I don't think that makes much sense. https://ibb.co/ZKLGRPC I always thought low solar was the reason.. it should be interesting to see where ENSO goes after this event..

Global precipitable water was record highest, going back to 1948, partially because of the past El Nino. It just didn't really hit us until lately. https://ibb.co/z7gCHfH We did have a wet Dec and Jan May is also usually our cloudiest month (I-95)

The PDO has a high EPO/WPO correlation, and if we see an Aleutian island High all Summer, it will be very difficult to get a -EPO/-WPO in the Winter. I do agree that we are kind of due for it, but the stronger trend is the strengthening Aleutian island ridge (-PNA) over the last few years. It may be that times we had +pna last Winter, we will be -pna next Winter, but I'm not sure on when a -EPO would set up.. they usually run only in 8-14 day cycles, vs PNA/NAO, which run 10-45 days.

I am curious to see if there is a -PNA correlation. There might be, as when the Earths magnetic defenses weakened around 2013, then again in 2019, there was more -PNA.

Models have a strong -PNA for the next 15 days, and it's kicking into gear just as the La Nina surfaces (on schedule if not slightly ahead). This is something to watch as we progress through the Summer as last year we did not see +pna with El Nino and that carried into Winter.

Their measurement does intersect the two (PNA and EPO) Here is PNA H5 https://ibb.co/L1HKSSJ US Air Temps https://ibb.co/KFnBqTh EPO H5 https://ibb.co/q1hjXGx US Air Temps https://ibb.co/FqRBgF5 As you can see, the EPO does have a pretty strong opposite-correlation in the N. Pacific (what I am calling the PNA region). That is why the CPC PNA has only a weak correlation with air temps over the NE, but EPO has a strong correlation. It's not that Alaska is super important (although it is), but the PNA south of where they measure is the sweet spot for correlated temperature impact.