Stormchaserchuck1

Weekend rule is crazy! I remember in the early 2000s it was 30-40% more likely to rain on the weekend for some time. Would love to see some long term stats vs mathematical anomalies.

Overall jet stream has shifted north, It effects us differently in different seasons. That stuff happening again screams ridge up into NE this Winter imo, as the base state. We would need a -EPO to break it. -NAO probably won't be able to do it.

March 2023 too, we had a -NAO and -EPO for some time. It amounted to nothing. I think later in the -PNA decadal phase a SE ridge becomes more constant vs early in the cycle. That's something I think we could batteling again this Winter, even if the NAO goes negative.

I do think we can almost rule Strong La Nina out. Subsurface though continues to favor possibly a Moderate La Nina, at the very least Weak. There is major global ocean warming this year, and I was wondering if that would spill over into ENSO.. it looks like it might. MEI/RONI might be a better gauge for effects this year, although it's hard to separate out the PDO.

I think you have done great the last 2 years, but don't fall in the trap of thinking "this is X std's above normal so it has to even out". I think there is a very clear reason for the +WPO of late, being the La Nina state in the Pacific since about 1998 (leading to -PDO conditions). The -WPO/-EPO Winters have been more +pdo during that time. The real trend is how the RNA of late has been gaining steam, part of that being how we saw a N. Pacific High most of the time in a Strong El Nino this past Winter, which only happened in 65-66 and 72-73, at the peak of that -pdo cycle. It does open the door for -NAO potential though, I think. You were the only that originally pointed out the PDO has a higher correlation: https://ibb.co/hWtdb2W +0.6 correlation over the Deep South! https://ibb.co/kyH3kzd +0.35 peak correlation

If I had to venture a guess for the upcoming Winter right now, it would look like this. https://ibb.co/4PqH6ZK

High pressure patterns in the SW, US also lead +EPO/WPO. So far it looks like this Summer is going to feature High pressure there. That has been the trend since about 1995..

I don't think the WPO-EPO is really going to flip until the PDO flips. Maybe it will lead it though? History says we should be near the time-shift of peaking/declining PDO phase.

And the windchill was -35F in Kansas City for the Chiefs home playoff game in January! Imagine the potential we are running into, if that was the warmest Winter on record.

You wouldn't hate this in the Wintertime 1aa (6) — Freeimage.host I have a feeling it's a passing trend though, that will amplify the -PNA in the Wintertime. A lot of times -NAO Summer do beget -NAO Winter's, though

Really strong -NAO for 1st half of June on today's 12z GFS ensembles.. it's crazy how same patterns follow trend.. when Spring was cooler, they could have told you higher likelihood for -NAO and cooler June. Also, since the March 2012 heat wave, our Springs have been cool. This trend has also been consistent. Summers don't warm up much above average lately, and Fall is very above average (since ~2010). July has been our thunderstorm month.

According to todays 12z GFS ensembles, this may be one of the more -NAO June's on record. Permanent, big ridge over Greenland and the Davis Strait is what I have in mind for -NAO, not some small closed off blocking area (like we had late March/early April).

A lot of high temperature records from the late 1800s/early 1900s still stand.. I'm surprised reading the transcripts from settlers in the 1700s, about Winter weather that is not much different from today. It's obviously trended warmer, but they really had some warm Winters back then too. I think the threat is always there for some extreme flux, given the two polar blocking regions are land, Greenland and Alaska. remember that KC Chiefs playoff game this year when the windchill was -35F south in latitude of here?

Here we go with highs suppose to get into the 120s in Death Valley 7-Day Forecast 35.99N 116.75W (weather.gov) Hadley Cell expansion, which has given us a ridge in the Winter lately is partially connected to what happens in the SW, US, and the drought they have seen there since 1995. For colder periods this Winter, I don't want to see a hot/dry Summer there..

Actually, just speaking from personal observation, it's the Sun. Does higher CO2 deplete the ozone to make the sun shine brighter to ground heat?

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.0, +0.2, -0.3, -0.5, +0.8, +1.0, +1.8, +1.6, +0.7

NAO has been trending better recently (the last few Winters).. I think we are seeing a general northern lift of the jet stream, and it doesn't have so much to do with PNA, EPO, etc. It actually seems to be East Coast based, because I see the Pacific and Atlantic fall in line together. I would even go out to say it seems like Energy traders are influencing the patterns. A lot of times last Winter there was rain up into Canada, and during a few of those times the NAO was negative! Maybe this recent Sun spike will shake things up? Otherwise, I can see -PNA pattern prevailing once again, and lately it's a pattern that has extended a ridge into NNE and SE Canada. We have been seeing deep troughs dig into the West coast the last 2 Winters. I think that is hopeful.. usually what happens out there leads us by some time (years). But I don't want to see another dry/hot Summer there.

Thanks @calm_days!

test

Models were trying to develop an Aleutian island trough the last few days, now it retreated to mostly Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. That's what I'm referring to when I say the PNA, the N. Pacific pattern since it correlates most with the actual measurement. -PDO is associated with cooler water in the Gulf of Alaska, so that's why it's retreating to more of a -PDO pattern, while the -NAO trends greater on models. They do try to bring an Aleutian ridge in the late part of the model run after June 10th.. I think +days it's associated with NAO. I'm just talking about trends and intuitive observations. Edit: You posted the 12z, I was looking at 6z. It does deepen a +PNA low in the long range when you point out. I don't think that disqualifies the correlation though, although not 100%.

I wonder if for years after this solar max, the -PDO holds.. The cycle started after the 98-99 Solar Max, and the sun was the quietest since the early 1900s, 2000-2020.

-NAO building in June on models. This, is as the Pacific turns more -PDO oriented. The correlation is there (-PNA bursts associated with -NAO, +PNA bursts associated with +NAO).

This La Nina event is surprising to me. I thought we would start trending toward more El Nino's.

That started a long time ago.. back in the early 2000s, every Summer had a Rockies-based ridge.

I just think the data kind of argues against it, especially early in the Winter. You were the one who pointed out the PDO actually has a higher correlation in the N. Pacific than ENSO. Look at this Oct-Dec composite.. >0.6 correlation in NW Canada, going back to 1948 (not even over water)! https://ibb.co/JHs3qrp