Stormchaserchuck1

It would be nice to see the decadal NAO go negative. It's ripe conditions for that I think. -NAO's keep getting sheared out. And when the NAO is negative the Pacific pattern always changes a certain way to support us being warmer, something like "not being realized within X box". (I wonder if a super, super -NAO is possible to happen).

NAO remains variable.. no signs of sustained, long duration -NAO, and it fluctuates on future models a lot. N. Pacific pattern >>>.

This -1 area is keeping us away from next level (Strong) El Nino. https://ibb.co/FmySPLG Edit: with the way the Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up, those correlations are rigid, I wouldn't be surprised to see the central-subsurface cold pool keep/expand through the season.

The CFS has a trend bias.

21/11/5

Just saying, Natural Gas has moved from 2.1 to 2.6, now back to 2.1. I'm getting preliminary -NAO signals, using my N. Atlantic SST method, and ENSO/QBO, so we might be looking at +EPO/-PNA part of the time.

With -QBO and warm western subsurface, I think we "want" a stronger Nino.. Weak to Moderate looks likely though. 18-19 showed that Weaker El Nino's can sometimes be conquered by the Pacific trend. I have a really strong +PNA signal for Dec, using methods unconnected to ENSO...

I just want to point out again the macro pattern- no clouds/clouds. I think going into the Winter it's one of those situations where we could have a 12-36" storm, or nothing at all, a snow drought. I think that we are creating a lot of tendency for a coastal storm, which started last Winter.

The rapid change to correlating ENSO is a little too perfect for me. I think we will go hotter than average in July-Aug-Sept.

Technically, per CPC, it was a +NAO Winter, making this 13-4 since inception. 2022 1.08 1.68 0.77 -0.36 0.71 -0.12 -0.09 1.47 -1.61 -0.72 0.69 -0.15 2023 1.25 0.92 -1.11 It was within the 0.54 SD too. Something like 10-7 there since inception. Right now, through the month of May complete the Winter 23-24 NAO SST index is -0.70 for the coming Winter. Last year it started off negative then went/finished positive. It's a May-September calculation.

Another nice +PNA hitting here shortly. If we continue this through July (which it might because ENSO subsurface is warming in the west), it will be the 2nd year in a row the warm season has gone +PNA, and that is something to consider going into a Winter that has had 7 straight -PNA's.

I think we have higher potential this year, even if temps do or don't show it. It's having more humidity in the air and a faster aloft jet stream. 104, 103, 103, 104

I'm getting really strong +PNA signal for Dec. -NAO's are common lately, but I wanted to make note in the May long range thread that they are correlating with the warmest temps all the time. I said 90s late May with +NAO, and it went -NAO first few days of June and only then did we hit it... this has been happening over and over: So we continue this reverse-NAO thing, but another point to note is that haven't really had 30-60+ days of straight -NAO for about 10-15 years, so we are decadally not really in -NAO phase, although smaller duration -NAO's does seem to be the tendency. These are correlating with +EPO/-PNA all the time, but maybe El Nino will change that.. maybe not. El Nino/-QBO is a stratosphere warming signal, and -NAO for the Winter.

94-95 was a strongly +NAO Winter, I'm getting some good -NAO analogs for the Winter. Dec big time +PNA is hitting too.

Western subsurface is heating up again, in a lot of the stronger Nino years, the western subsurface had already started to cool. Central subsurface will continue to cool probably, next 5 days as -pna persists, then may trend warmer June 5-11. CPC and Australia subsurface data under Nino 3.4 correlates strongly with N. Pacific pattern at D+0.

It's a macro-pattern right now I've seen in the US with drought-no drought over the last 6 months. Irma a few years is a show of what can be done with potential energy, but the El Nino is getting ramped up lately too.

We have a -PNA but it correlating as a wave-break under a N. latitude ridge. We are shifting colder the last few weeks.. not overall though.

This isn't even an event where you would say the potential wasn't realized, to be reached at another time. A lot of people are wrong about Nino 1.2. It, this event, seems to be part of a global progression, it seems to me. So we break +0.5c in Nino 3.4 and Nino 4 the last few days of May going into June.. maybe we'll do a Moderate event max. (It still seems that there is potential energy for a 2-year El Nino signal.) Another thing I wanted to make note of, is how the SOI seems to correlate to the N. Pacific pattern minus all the noise, or clutter in other indicators. A pretty good #1 indicator, imo, at least right now, unless you can find a better one.

If you want to make a correlation with 87-88 as an opposite analog.. 88-89 was probably the most relative La Nina on record, since 1948 (relative to surrounding ENSO states and PDO). Could support our El Nino here. 89-90 acted like a weak El Nino. 90-91 was positive ENSO 91-92 was El Nino, 92-93 and 93-94 were subsurface El Nino's. 94-95 was El Nino. 95-96 was the start of switch back, weak La Nina, but strong +PNA on the surface. So 6-7 years of +ENSO... could support that we are still in a long term cycle of La Nina or -PDO, if you use just that one factor, it could be a lag factor occurrence too.

I had found that the ENSO subsurface correlates more to the N. Hemisphere pattern than the surface, by a pretty strong difference, actually, that is since satellite era in 1979 and 1948. In the past, this difference had usually been a temperature difference, but last Winter there was a very strong STJ when the subsurface was Moderate El Nino, hard to tear them two apart. It was actually the strongest surface-subsurface difference since the -subsurface/+surface of 1987-8, which was a High pressure pattern. we may make it to Weak-Moderate El Nino, because so much is going for it, but this -PNA is not what you like to see in a developing Strong Nino.

Yeah, this is a strong pattern at this point. -PNA, +NAO. Should climb into the 90s the last week of May.

+PNA today and yesterday, or GOA low giving us warmer than normal temps May 11th and 12th. (I think March 11-12 could have been a good snowstorm.) Last week of May looks like probably 90s for highs.. Fast jet stream shown by clouds veering off to the side is a precursor for a much warmer than average Summer, in my opinion. Lack of organized thunderstorms I imagine would continue too.. It seems like the current condition is a drought compared to Summers like 1995, but even so we are up against a big heat ridge from the rest of the last 20 years potentially building in.. stay tuned. drought busting in my statistical opinion is happening vs pattern progression.

I was noticing cloudless days. I think we have like 8/14. It's not necessarily a drought, but a macro pattern we are in.

We also didn't get a Gulf coast hurricane for 11 years following Katrina. It was a time of above normal Atlantic activity, making it one of the greatest anomalies of our time. I wouldn't bet on a NE hit this year..

When matched up with similar years of the greatest N. Hemisphere anomaly in Russia over a 12-month period, the signal usually flips (cold becomes warm, warm becomes cold) the following year-winter.