vortmax

Wow 27 - 0. Wish the NAM would fold like the Pats

18Z EC anyone?

9 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

But it blows the deformation band much farther west. Verbatim, this is the difference between ROC being in the jackpot zone vs. being in the "good, but not great" zone.

Yea, we really need a SE shift. Only way that happens is a weaker wave, later phase. We shall see.

1 minute ago, 96blizz said:

I think the GFS won’t pick up on some of the lake enhanced the way the Meso models will. 
 

Great run for GFS regardless. 

I meant less than its 12Z run. Looks like it is caving to the NAM.

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Looks like euro and rgem.

Less precip. That def band seems to move north quickly.

18Z GFS running.

5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Can you post?

12Z

18Z

My gut tells me the def band will push NW quickly. Dang. No LE included.

BUF - 18.5”

IAG - 19.5”

ROC - 11.3”

SYR - 5.0”

BGM - 3.1”

YYZ - 14.0”

18Z ICON precip shield looks west.

And now I'm paranoid cuz I don't care if all the other models stay put I just want to see the NAM move east. 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Observation thread!

 

Make your forecast your first post on the new thread! 

Seems they are buying the NAM. 

Just now, KPITSnow said:

The NAM is either going to score a huge coupe, or should be officially retired.

It did score a huge coup on that Feb 2021 storm. Just saying. 

2 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

I'm just hoping we all do good. I'm trying to stay level on this one, but can't help it. Getting amped up. Reminds me I better go get gas for the snow blower! I love snow removal.  On top of my driveway I take care of a few neighbors driveways to help out as they are getting older. 

It's okay to get amped on this one. Enjoy! 

Really curious to see 18z RGEM & NAM to see if the SE models are on to something. 

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Eps Monday morning

I guess that spead is the transfer to convection? Any models hold a single LP the entire run? 

According to the EC, there will be 25-30kt winds over the lake hitting the shore for 12hrs+. Does this get taken into consideration for blizzard conditions for the South Shore ctys?

On 1/12/2022 at 3:59 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

lol tell him to put his $ where his mouth is!  Anyone else try the ceaser sports book app yet?  If your in NY they give you a free $300 to start your account with.  Made some random off the wall bets for Sunday and actually hit one of the prop bets for $315.  

Can someone explain how this works? I have the app and see the offer. I need a crash course on all of these numbers and conditions. They said they'd match $3000 as well? What's that all about. Thanks.

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Where does navy have the storm in bramuda? Lol 

Actually, it's only about 100 east of the mean track.

Just for kicks. JMA has def band a bit more east:

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

@TugHillMatt, myself and @CNY_WX need every single tick east we can get to mininize the dryslot impact.  

I think there will be a little more, in my unprofessional opinion.

Just now, rochesterdave said:

So Vort went on the record. Lol. But I was wondering if it might be a good idea to do separate thread just for our calls? They seem to get lost in the mix.

I am liking 15-20 for Buf to Rochester. If that defo lines up with enhancement, someone should get over 2’. It’s a BIG ONE. A little fast for huge totals. 
 

Maybe the beginning of the obs thread?

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Storm Cancel

 

 

That's 7pm Mon - 7am Tues. Sugar on top.

Ok, going on record that someone ends up with 30" by Tuesday 7pm.

Just now, tim123 said:

Euro gives roc more snow than last 2 runs

Agreed. 1.8" through 66hrs. Some significant LE on the back-end - 0.4-0.5"....that should be 20:1 stuff.

Euro's heavy precif shield

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro went further NW, hits Erie PA with massive storm.

The heavy (purple) precip lines actually moved a bit east since 00Z, but extended south as well.