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Posts posted by vortmax
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9 minutes ago, tim123 said:
New nam isn't out yet. The one on pivitol is from yesterday.
Huh? Was asking about EC vs EC high-res.
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Who's got the SREF plumes for this bad boy? Are we in range?
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What's the difference between the EC and EC high res? The 'regular' EC 12Z looks to keep the same LP track, but 2mb stronger.
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9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:
At some point we gotta talk about how bad GEFS were. They constantly played catch-up with the op.
We take. Even if they're late to the party.
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Just now, tim123 said:
Yes I want it all
And I want it now.
Go big or stay home Tim, that's what we love about you!
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Kind of amazing we're getting a decent lake response with such dry air. 700RH is like 10%. Wondering if this bodes well for post-storm LE with a 20-30% cyclonic flow on Tuesday.
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Lot's of 'glitches' with this one. That phase has really been screwing with the models.
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Just now, Blue Moon said:
Any suspicion the WRF is onto a SE trend, or is it just an anomaly?
An isuckomaly.
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Just now, TugHillMatt said:
Illegal word.
What about hawt?
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1 minute ago, 96blizz said:
And colder. I’m not sure who mentioned it earlier this AM but are we starting to see dynamic cooling? RGEM too.
Agreed. 700 temps are a couple degrees cooler (-5C) on the warmest frame, which is key. Really hoping to see the 12k relax a bit on its 18Z run.
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CMC is serious. Loving it.
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Really nice 700 RH with -12 850s on NW flow. Should be some really nice LE before the dry air moves in Tues 12Z. I think there could be some 2'+ lollies on the SS if we stay all snow by that time.
Too bad that clipper is way north now. Sucks.
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Just now, DeltaT13 said:
This storm keeps getting deeper so perhaps dynamic cooling is now coming into play on the western side?
Yes, I edited my original post. Seem like that's it. Could save the day.
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3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:
If I see 24” of snow I will donate a nut to Rochester Dave.
You guys are very generous.
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I'm not sure how the 12Z GFS keeps the same snow map with a stronger and more west track (basically a 982mb over BGM). Has to be mixing issues even to ROC - just checked, warmest 700 temp around -5C over the airport. Maybe all snow then.
Seems a stronger LP is creating some dynamic cooling.
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2 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:
*chef's kiss*
GFS looks scary, but still produces:
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12Z GFS is amped and west. Wow.
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ICON definitely shifted precip shield east about 30-50 from 00Z.
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12z GFS running. Let's see if it shifts SE...
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1 minute ago, tim123 said:
Really deep low for latitude.
Anyone want to post the winds? Assuming on the west side they're not blizzard worthy, but the east side should be storm force.
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Still time for a SE tick or 2.
Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted
U be trollin