vortmax

2 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said:

Yeah- always learning from you guys and watching the newbies.  Do not mean any disrespect but honestly, I work in Rochester at times but just gets tiring when we all want a good, synoptic event and the focus for everyone but some peeps like to only focus on Rochester.

Everyone focuses on their own areas. Especially for lake effect. Just how it is and it's quite alright. Embrace the fun. 

Started snowing up on the lake now. Just turned to sleet. Crap!  

jk

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

10 hours and 7500 miles later, my backyard weather station recorded the compression wave from the Tonga Hunga volcano eruption.  Pretty awesome.

That's crazy! How'd you get the graph from your Tempest?

So KBUF said the precip is coming an hour early. Is that because of the storm moving faster or a larger precip shield?

Trying to understand why the HRRR jumps the LP to the coast, weakens the primary, then re-strenghtens it, and ultimately merges the 2 again further west.  Anyone wanna explain that one??

Just now, rochesterdave said:

It’s actually 996. But a little weaker might help! 

Yes, I just edited. Still weaker so far. Will this thing really retrograde NW and then go due North into C-PA? Not sure.

6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

996 over eastern NC right now. So it will be comical to see it track NW like that. 

See my post? Surface map at 21z had the LP at 1000mb, the 3k NAM at 21z was 993.

EDIT: 23z surface is now 996 (like you said), 3k NAM has it at 994. The move the LP NW a bit then due North. Hmm.

979 in Central PA?? Wow, is this thing trending stronger on the current surface map? 1000mb double barrel. Is this jumping to the coast early??

18z NAM at about the same hour is 994....WAY over-amped... 3k NAM has the LP at 993 at 21z (surface map above is 21z - 1000mb) 

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I am glad the lake effect provided a bit for here the past couple weeks, as I am starting this event off with a several inch glacier. 

And I'm starting this event off with grass not covered this season yet. 

Just now, rochesterdave said:

The back end has salvaged countless storms like this. Thank goodness for Ontario. 

Warmer than average lake too.

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

3km nam nails roc

10:1?

20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Heading out to Holiday Valley for the night. Should be snowing on the way back!

Should stay there overnight! 

6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

We should have a CNY storm contest...predict the time of first pingers.  

Bonus is time and duration of dryslot.

Matt should start a CNY pingslot obs thread. 

17 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Wonder if it would be graupal.

I was thinking than too. 

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Start?!? I’ve been obsessing for days. Lol. Right on the cusp. The maps are more aggressive than the soundings. But it’s very close. As Vort said, dynamic cooling should help. NYC always gets saved by it- why can’t we for once? 

I'm no pro, but I would be shocked if there were any sleet mixed in that.

7 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

Already up to 31F in Buffalo.

From -3 to 23 here. Should hit 30.

Doesn't anyone think there will be enough dynamic cooling in the def zone to prevent any mixing? I mean we are talking about a rapidly deepening 980 low. 

So did the NAM shift east? 

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s pretty good! Soundings look fine for us. 

I'm being greedy, but would really like to see the US models cave. 

Not digging the 00z GFS. Canada vs US

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Guys, that’s not snow on RGEM. It’s sleet. 

I just don't buy that. Dynamic cooling is gonna win. 

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

40:10 LOL. Take that Bellicheater you Walmart looking F*ck.

Easy trigger.

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

As much as nam has been consistent rgem has as well.

True, true

9 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

0z Canadian still looks good for Toronto, Buffalo, Ottawa, Rochester.

Didn't really change much from 18Z. The RGEM really keeps that Def band more west - east along the South Shore. Hmm.

BooM. And anotha...

Fold NAM.