vortmax

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Just like you're 100% man with at least 50% of your nuts.

He may only have 0% of his nuts if this Miller A works out.

12Z Canadian has initialized.

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its going to be similar to lake effect snow bands. I still think that band sets up across CNY. GEFS are too far SE for it to come this far to the NW. We've been seeing subtle shifts the last few runs. It all depends on what side of the apps it tracks. If it goes East I expect it to go further SE then modeled, if it goes west than I expect it to go further NW than modeled. 

As Delta said (along with the BUF disco), the HP placement is good for a rare Apps runner and the Apps aren't too large to mess with the LP, especially a Miller A.

Gravity waves with this one?

Anyone notice that the GFS brings the 492dm bubble over us with a NNW cyclonic flow after the clipper? Dang. This could be a VERY snowy (and frigid - old Weather Channel saying) couple of weeks.

The 12Z EC run will be VERY interesting. This is the time when these runs start to really converge and dictate reality. 

Still not buying the double-barrel look.

12Z GFS a major hit for just about everyone, again. Wow.

Kuchera already about 2' for South Shore before it's over.

Just now, rochesterdave said:

If anything, it’s more tucked

The 06Z GFS has that same LP wobble, chasing the convection. With a true Miller A, there shouldn't be any transfers.

12Z GFS through 81hrs pretty similar to 06Z.

Definitely looks like it's experiencing some convective feedback with that low placement, but as the rest said, it all depends on how it handles that northern stream energy about to make its West Coast entrance.

So it looks like the south shore is still in the game for up to 4-6" fluff over the weekend according the the RGEM. That would be a great pre-game warm up.

SYR west we'd like to see a a bit more inland and northerly track for both synoptic and LE on the back end. 

The phasing will be key to the tilt. When will that northern energy be on land for sampling? 

Sitting at 34 right now. Was only 7.5 around 24 hours ago. 

These wobbles are expected. Just hoping there aren't any huge shifts. 

Central PA thread has lots of interesting analysis posts. Fun reads. This is gonna be a big one. 

BUF

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will move off the New England coast Sunday, with a
ridge extending back across New York State and New England
providing a dry finish to the weekend. Temperatures will be
significantly warmer than on Saturday after a cold start Sunday
morning, however still some 5-10 degrees below average for mid
January.

Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system.
Confidence continues to increase for a Nor`Easter to impact our area
from Sunday night into Monday. 12Z ECMWF/GFS/Canadian all have the
center of an area of deepening low pressure moving NNE directly over
central/eastern NY late Sunday night and Monday. Given the increased
confidence, us and surrounding offices have stepped up PoPs into the
Lkly range from central and eastern PA up through central and
eastern NY during this timeframe. If this system tracks to far
inland p-type could become an issue, mainly across eastern areas at
this point, however will keep precipitation as all snow for now this
far out.

Some lake effect and upslope snows will develop Monday night lasting
into the day on Tuesday under WNW/NW flow in the wake of the
departing storm system. Any lingering lake effect snow showers will
weaken and sweep from south to north as winds back to the southwest
Tuesday night ahead of a Clipper type system moving into the upper
Great Lakes. This will bring the next chance for a light synoptic
snow to western and northcentral NY mid week.

3 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

I hate to say it, but I think you're right.

 

T-5 days prediction:

BUF: 2"

ROC: 4" (despite mets protesting that their forecast of 8-12" is going to hold up in the face late model movement to the SE)

SYR: 9"

ALB: 16"

BGM: 18"

Jackpot: Manchester, NH - 23"

This is gonna be more west than that... 

Quiet all of a sudden. I think we all overdosed on model pron. lol

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

 

Funny thing is, this bullseye is over a foot short of BGM's epic dumping.

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Can we get for like 12 hours after this with lake snow added in?

Might as well go ultra-weenie.

Just now, wolfie09 said:

 

It would take a very early phase to make this a cutter. I say this stays just to the east of the range.

Just now, rochesterdave said:

30” over Ontario, Wayne County. Lol. We can dream. 

The Europeans heard my plea of uncovered grass.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GEM finally came through

I'll take the 24" lolly just north of my location. lol.

Just now, 96blizz said:

Looks like a hand gun. 

Model bias.

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Ouch lol

Dynamic cooling would keep WNY in the snow, my opinion.