vortmax

On 10/12/2022 at 6:02 PM, tim123 said:

Wish this October pattern holds for winter

Here's to hope... 

Ended up with 0.62" today. Grass is finally looking alive again! 

Popping... 

On 8/22/2022 at 9:31 AM, vortmax said:

Finally got some rain. About .5" so far, can almost hear the grass gulping it...

Up to 1.5" now. Very happy.

Finally got some rain. About .5" so far, can almost hear the grass gulping it...

Hoping to see some nighttime elevated convection with the passage of the warm front. KBUF doesn't seem too impressed.

It will be very muggy tonight as a well established southerly flow
ahead of an approaching cold front advects in lower 70s dewpoints
across our region. Temps will remain very warm with lows in the low
to mid 70s, warmest Niagara Frontier to St. Lawrence River valley.
Convection chances tonight are dependent on upstream trends.
Not very confident in any one solution based on how models have
performed since last night. In general the models were too far
north and west with convection last night and are similar today.
With that in mind and since warm front will be north of here
allowing for ample elevated instability to settle across along
with a low-level jet in place, made sure to have at least chance
pops this evening over western NY and northern North Country,
then blended this with going forecast chancy pops over from
western NY to North Country later tonight. Better chances for
storms tonight *likely* will remain just north of our area
across southern Ontario and southern Quebec along advancing warm
front and where stronger temp/moisture advection are present.
It will be a nowcasting type of scenario though.

14 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Hey guys! Won't be long before I return to Oswego. I've spent the summer months in TN and it's been hot as you can imagine. How's the summer treating you guys?

IMO, it's been the best Spring/Summer we've had in a long time. 

26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Perfect. Going with a colder then average December. 

White Christmas?

46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Looks like it's going to go just to my north lol

Take some pics of waterspouts!

Who thinks this will shift east a little later today?

1 hour ago, cny rider said:

Same amount here.

I feel like this summer is just right.  We are getting enough rain for everything to grow and flourish but still having many beautiful summer days.

The wild raspberry crop is the best we have ever had:

Agreed. Not many extremes...either way.

On 7/16/2022 at 3:01 PM, wolfie09 said:

Much needed rain, especially for WNY..

Will be interesting to see how this verifies at the end of the day today.

On 7/11/2022 at 3:28 PM, brentrich said:

And yet I'm setting bunch of low 80's. How is that above average for NY? You troll. 

Key word in those charts is "Outlook". Come on Brent, stop with the shenanigans please. This is a weather page in which we talk about past, present and future forecasts.

On 6/27/2022 at 6:39 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty colors...lol

2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Man I didnt even register .01" from that frontal passage and the next week looks very dry.  It's going to be a grind watering ery'day!

Yea, if we didn't get a lucky hit by a heavy cell with about .35" in a 15 min downpour, we'd be in the same boat.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Based on the data it seems May/June/November have been closest to climo norms compared to the rest of the year. 

The December timeframe must be related to the longwave patterns as the planet hits the solstice. What area does that graph cover or is it a single site?

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Saw this on NE forum. Pretty interesting data. It seems we have a warm Christmas more often than not and the prove is in the data. 

Why couldn't that blip be in April?

44 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Meso models actually did really well with the Rochester and fingerlakes area.  Almost nailed them to a T.  Not too shabby.  I thankfully got .45" of rain which is better than nothing.  UR must have gotten almost 2 inches and some small hail.  

We only got .06" easy of you. The line split around eastern Monroe cty. Interesting. 

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yeah this is unusual.  Marine layer is apparently not in play right now.  Storms are way further West than any Meso model had them.  I expect outflow from that first batch of storms will blow up something huge over the Genny valley in the next 3-4 hours.  I can see storms in Canada 50 miles away from my office window so these storms are building pretty tall.  

More popping east now along the outflow...

Something is happening...

Let's see how this rolls.

1 hour ago, brentrich said:

Dude, stop F trolling, you know it wont happen. We will not see any 90's this week. God just stop trolling, thanks! 

You were saying?

5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Well the boundary of the marine layer proved to be a massive trigger for a pretty high end event yesterday. The damage in Livingston and Ontario counties was pretty extensive. 100mph microburst/downburst really rocked portions of 20a.

Wow, pretty intense. Totally agree, you could watch all those cells just pop on the east side of that layer, one after another.

4 hours ago, Syrmax said:

I had 1.12" rain yesterday, mainly in afternoon with a garden variety thunderstorm.  Severe threat looked to generally not materialize.

It seems even when severe parameters are quite favorable, the marine air wins out every time. The only storms that seem to survive/thrive are the elevated warm frontal ones.

4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Not one drop of rain today. Lake Erie is a bastard in these early summer setups. 

Same here. Nada. Pretty amazing when you think about how much moisture was in the atmosphere. Maybe we'll see some with the actual frontal passage.