vortmax

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I expect a little rain sat morning. But I’m going up tomorrow so I can get a solid day in before the storm. If sat is washout that’s the way it goes and I might hit Gore on Sunday. 

Gore is fun. 

19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Alright, I'm pushing off for Vermont at 4am tomorrow morning/tonight.  Still riding the hairy edge of that rain snow line, but that's typically where you want to be.  I'm hoping some elevation also helps out.  Good luck to everyone with what will likely be the last "big one" of this winter.

Watch 0z shift west. Lol. 

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

You’ll be eating your words when a tidal wave wipes out the east coast. Lol

Lol, 893...impressive.

Well if the the northern stream vort is getting sampled better now, then we should start to see models converge on the right solution. 

Ok, I'm hugging the 6z RGEM for dear life. 

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Track is not that different, it's more about the orientation of the precipitation..

The earlier phasing on the NAM seems to orient the trough more neutrally. I like it. Let's see if the RGEM holds. Still quite far out for the mesos, but I'm less skeptical based on their excellent performance this season - amped and West.

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NAM much farther NW

Wow. That JHW magnet is for REAL.

12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Temps should be fine for most of us. 

At the very least, the South Shore should get some LE on the tail end.

41 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Was JUST looking at the radar. Wow, you guys are gonna play catch-up in the golden snowball over the next few days

7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I get that. I really do. This one should be yours. 

Nah, this one should be for everyone. Bombogenesis.

Is there a WPC model diagnostic discussion anymore?

Scratch that, they've integrated into the extended disco.

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Slip sliding away for western areas. As Vortmax said, it’s all about the phase. 

Here's to hoping the globals are moving in the wrong direction. NAM and RGEM to the rescue. We will see.

Just now, rochesterdave said:

It’s old

Says 4am this morning. Same wording from yesterday or something?

Someone different must be writing the HWO:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The potential exists for widespread accumulating snow Friday night
through Saturday night. Several inches of snow will be possible.

18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Pretty good look. We need a tick west though. 

"It's all about the phase, about the phase, about the phase..." 

40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

NAM

RGEM

Surprisingly similar so far out. 

20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve never read a more dismissive disco ever. NWS has spoken and there is no storm. I’m dumbfounded. I guess they went with the ICON. 

Exactly, so strange. I hope they get burnt. No offense BUF! Lol

5 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

Silver lining: they're not all blasting out to Nova Scotia and we're still in the game.

Average this and the Euro and we're in business.

We need the NBM. 

44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nice, at least for this run lol

Getting stoked. This could be huge-a. Would love to see the coveted Christmas color watch/warning.

18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Sugarbush is awesome. I was just there. Not much around there but super fun hill. 

Yes, the glades are fun there. 

5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Some monster hits on GEFS would appear to be skewing the mean a little bit. Also a little hard to tell how much tomorrow's event is skewing the indiv member panels. Can't narrow the interval unfortunately like you can for the 10:1 mean.

Members 4 or 24 please. Not very often you see a bunch of 24"+ members...Clearly there's a chance for a massive hit.

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

NAM and mesos have schooled the globals all season...The models literally trend until its game time lol 

2 hours ago, vortmax said:

Who wants to bet the mesos are going to be more amped when they get in range? 

Who wants to bet the mesos are going to be more amped when they get in range? 

9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

A dramatic improvement. 

Agreed. Leaves some room for a slightly earlier phase.

18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ok, I think we get it. 

Haha, I don't think LEK knows he quad-posted...