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Posts posted by vortmax
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15 minutes ago, tim123 said:
Gfs came nw. Didn't give boston 20 inches of snow. Lol like 4.
Each run the GFS lowers HP to north by 1mb. Now only 1 above NAM & RGEM at same times. I think the Canadians are gonna win out on this more NW track.
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3 minutes ago, 96blizz said:
GFS is definitely more amped. I think this is headed NW.
About 50 mile NW. Wondering if this will be the trend as the sampling gets better.
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Would be quite the coup if the Canadian's score this one.
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Gotta paint the taint, whatever that means.
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Have to say, the lake enhancement potential could be a significant add to the 2nd half. Really interested to see how it plays out.
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2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:
Yeah I guess I could hike it someday. Haha
I haven't been there in a long time, but anytime you have to sign a waiver before skiing, it's bound to be an adventure.
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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:
We stayed in Ludlow and I rode killington and Okemo, just a quick 2 day trip where most of my crew is really casual about slope time while I go hard and try to hit a lot of technical/nongroomer runs and spend the full day exploring (often alone but utilizing the singles lines which can be a game changer). Killington had good coverage and pretty nice snow quality overall, a lot of untouched snow deep in the trees too which is my favorite. That was a solid fun day.
Day 2 was Okemo on a Saturday so a circus with crowds and some pretty obnoxious lift waits early on. Things only got worse as that storm exploded off the coast. Winds ramped up impressively and quickly moved down the mountain. The summits were gusting 50 by 1pm and temps were down to -10! Conditions got super dangerous really fast…. I got frost bite on my nose (first time in my life! Scary shit). On top of that, the runs were completely skied and blown off, ice all over. I found a couple passable tree runs but that’s about it. Pretty ****ing miserable tbh.
Our airbnb was awesome though and the company was great. Tons of cards, boozing, edibles, karaoke..haha. Just non stop laughing all weekend.Too bad you couldn't hit Mad River. That's a fun one.
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From the BGM disco:
Still with a very strong arctic high to our north and weak surface low pressure this forecast leaned 2/3 toward the CMC and GFS.
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NAM barely has any rain for WNY at onset Wed evening.
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EC spins up quite the coastal after the first storm:
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Just now, wolfie09 said:
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more possible. * WHERE...All of western and north central New York. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
Impossible? Is this standard wording for a WSW?
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Nice. Long-term watch. Love it.
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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
Sea affect snow. What elevation are they at? We see this type of stuff out west but with orographic lift.
950m or so...definitely upsloping going on with a West or North wind.
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17 minutes ago, Sub_Zero said:
Off topic, but wow!!
Yes please!!
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32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
I think this was from this morning..
Note of caution though, the shortwave energy that eventually spins up this system is just dropping south of Gulf of Alaska and really does not make to the southwest CONUS until Wednesday morning. So, could be changes to forecasts up to that point and with not much time for the system to develop fully before impacting our area, *could* see changes in forecasts until right up til the system lifts across the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Just something to keep in mind.
THANK YOU. Just what I was wondering. This will be a last-minute one for sure then as that's a huge piece of the puzzle. Enjoy the rollercoaster folks!
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The afternoon AFD from BUF, BGM and ALY will be interesting for sure at this juncture.
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EC running. Seems to keep the clipper a bit weaker than GFS. Wonder if that encourages a more NW positioning of the front.
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I'm hoping for a mix of strong cold air and more phasing. Maybe a NW correction at the end, but who knows.
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12Z GFS is gonna be another big hit.
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Again I ask, what new feature is getting measured? The clipper? The s/w vort?
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RGEM and NAM mean nothing right now.
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Model Mayhem Snowstorm! 2/2-2/4
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted
Definitely a great trend on the models. The 3rd wave is a big deal for SYR-BGM for synoptic, but also for the South Shore for keeping the RH up on a cold NE flow w/good ratios. We take.