SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The complacency and hubris is the killer. Yeah let's just build a city partially underwater. Let's build floating neighborhoods in a known hurricane region. But blocking patterns and warmer sea surface temperatures have elevated surge/flooding. Hurricanes peaking before landfall like Michael was unheard of.
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It's 100% correct which is why everyone's so triggered. They don't want to face that reality. But my pushback is that storms like this have happened before so any isolated event needs to be looked at carefully and not lumped into a broader narrative. I think it's honestly more concerning that people continue to build heavily in obvious death trap regions like Cape Coral. How is that crap even legal.
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Not enough to really intensify as the core is completely gone. It's still structurally sound and could get a baroclinic assist but anything beyond a high end TS or low end Cat 1 will be impossible
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Just like the 10K death toll estimation from Katrina. I do think there will be many deaths but not 100s
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That N/NW eyewall is vicious, probably supercharged from the trough.
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Next time we need a Cat 6 to finally sink Florida back into the ocean
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I still can't get over the hubris of people building in zones where hurricanes happen and where eventual sea level rises will wash developments away. Cape Coral is literally a death trap
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As long as they're SE of the eye they're getting the surge.
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On radar it looks like it's making a beeline towards Cape Coral & Ft. Myers
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Yes but the storm itself was further north. Part of the rain on the 12z was a redevelopment of the remnants of Ian rather than the main system
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GFS continues to trend in that direction
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That's good with regards to flooding however the movement NE will still be very slow across the peninsula so someone's gonna get 20-25" minimum. Unfortunately the odds of another landfall continue to rise and models that do take that route restrengthen the storm.
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CMC has been a western outlier its entire cycle. I'm leaning Ft. Myers, either just 10-20 miles north/south or over it.
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Icon with another major landfall near Charleston
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Ian moving with the shear and getting ventilation from the trough. At this point only an EWRC would equal a less than major hurricane impact.
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Ft. Myers area in danger now for direct hit however biggest danger overall will be the flooding for most of central FL. A stall or very slow movement is likely over Florida which means catastrophic rainfall totals of 20-40" with isolated amounts even higher than that.
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Everyone wants this they just don't wanna admit it.
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Strong blocking high to the north causes slowdown However decades of sea level rises will increase flooding risks
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Track wise maybe but this will be a bigger storm and a slow mover as you stated. Models might have also overcorrected SE
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The east shifts from Ian tonight mean Ian could get a lot further north aka remnant moisture.
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Sometimes IR doesn't tell the story. Clearly the NHC was right on the Cat 2 upgrade per recon Their forecasts have been top notch this year and I have little reason to believe their forecast will be too far from reality.
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Looks like Ian might be more influenced by the trough.
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12z Euro would not be good for Tampa, that would definitely bring the surge in.
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I think the 12z has to confirm the 06z Euro first because it could've been a fluke run.
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A track that far west would mitigate the surge/rain impacts but it also depends on how large the system is.
