tarheelwx

Gimme some of that!!!

Not a fan of the RGEM either. It may have its strengths, but the fine lines of wintry precip isn't one of them. TW

If we get the arctic cold just to our north, we'll get wintry precip in the cad areas. Might be ice rather than snow. TW

I'm all in, and I'll take anything freezing or frozen. Also, we're in that time of the year where we can get some pretty wild swings that can come out of nowhere. The odds are much better than what we had in January when the pattern was extremely persistent and there was no truly arctic air anywhere remotely close to tap into. I believe a beast is coming. When it does, it will likely put an end to winter. I'd be okay with that. TW

Major busts seem to have been in the 7+ day range. They've busted too warm in that range for the first 5-6 weeks of winter, and now they're busting too cold. TW

Hoping for thunder tomorrow night to stamp it's approval for next weekend's beast! TW

I gotta see the HP over the lakes or in the northeast. Enough of this Lucy business with a high over the plains or Waaaaayyyyyyyyyyy up in northern Ontario or Quebec. TW

I'm not falling for the Canadian again. TW

Yes, the RGEM has been quite consistent. It also gets a bit overzealous on the cold/zr sometimes. TW

Is the HRF any good? The 3 versions on Pivotal hit the triad pretty hard. More similar to the GDPS. TW

Still at my overnight min in Colfax @19.6. TW

33.8 with some snow still lying around in the shade. TW

For anyone with 6z Euro, can you comment or post on the ice map for those of us on the southern edge of the wintry precip? Thanks, TW

Seems to me that faster rates, at least when the temp is marginal (30+), allows more of the liquid to simply drip off rather than freeze. There some correlation between precip rates and temp. In other words, if 1/4 inch falls in 2 hours into 32 degree air, not much will freeze. If it falls over 18 hours or so, it is a much different story. I've seen so many times when people get excited to see really heavy liquid move into 30+ air, and it has rarely if ever amounted to a major issue. (regardless of how many ice ice baby or Lights out posts are made ). TW

Love a good ice storm. Been a long time. TW

This would be quite anomalous. I wouldn't count on anything backing in. But I hope I'm wrong by a foot! TW

what is this? TW

I agree. We have done so much better than those not far to our south and east. We've seen a respectable amount of snow, but not much in the way of ice. TW

Ideally we never get above 31. For situations like this, we'd probably need to bottom out at around 27 or so in order to keep below freezing for most of Sunday. Once the freezing rain starts, we'll most likely see a rise of 3-4 degrees over a 10 hour period. TW

I'd love to get an old fashioned triad winter storm - 2-3" of snow, 1/2" of sleet, and then a good 1/4" or more of freezing rain. Back when I was a kid, it seemed like we got 1 or 2 of those every year. TW

Tracking the wet bulb would give a much better indication of the CAD. Just looking at the temp doesn't give an accurate reflection of the wedge as some places are fully saturated, while others are not. Not saying that is the case above, but it could have something to do with it. TW

Euro did a much better job on the precip amounts for the storm last night. 3-4 days out, it was showing alot of light amounts of less than an inch. It did better 3-4 days out than it did inside 24 hours. TW

How much of that is snow from last night? Also, do you have the ice map for this weekend. Thanks for the info. TW

I love the consistency in the Euro, but really would like to see a bit more support from the other globals. Having said that, my hopes are much higher that the GFS will join the Euro than if it were the other way around. TW

One thing to note on the Euro is not only that the hp is nosing in a bit more, but it also went from 1035 @ 00z to 1037 @ 12z/ I guess a stronger high will build in more. If we see the high trend weaker, we will also see less of a wedge. TW