tarheelwx

06z?

On the 18z EPS, does most of that fall before the 850 line swings down, or does it fall as snow? TW

Always in the past, the best damming events had a high pressure centered over PA or NY. That 1037 or so high looks nice, but man it is way up there. I'd take a 1032 over NY vs the 1037 over Ontario. Hopefully the 12z run swing back our way a bit. TW

Yes the progression of the storm seems just a bit unusual. What's even more unusual to me though is the fair agreement among the models for over a week out. TW

CAD can always be underdone. However, I think CAD gets way overplayed on this board. I can guarantee you that CAD and associated cold is NOT always undermodeled. A great example was the "ice storm" we had back in December where temps were supposed to be around 31-32 and so many folks talked about how it would trend colder. Well, it never trended colder and we just did reach 32 and got a little bit of ice in the trees and bushed, but that was about it. If anything, the models overstated the CAD and cold, but most were pretty close. I think the thing is, is that we always remember the times where CAD does underperform and it impacts us significantly to the better. The difference with the storm next week is that there should be colder air available. TW

Euro shows temps in the low 30's for the Triad. A slopfest is better than nothing, but I'd sure like to see temps of upper 20's or lower. TW

I know there are postings about it from time to time, but wasn't sure of the time range. Thanks for clarifying. TW

Any word on the 18z Euro?

I remember maybe 15 years or so ago, that we had a similar setup where everything was aligned except for the PNA. And...... we were getting a similar result as we have now. When we got to the end of winter, we heard "if it wasn't for the pacific crashing into the west coast and running straight across the country, we would have been set. I also remember a couple of time when several of the indexes were bad (NAO included), but we had a very strong PNA - the results were we didn't have any sustained cold, but we had chances with timing and eaked out normal snowfall for the season (thought it didn't stay around for more than a couple of days). History tells me that anyone that harps on the need to have a -NAO but is blind to the state of the PNA needs to be taken out behind the woodshed. Here's to hoping we score big at some point. TW

Flurries in Colfax. TW

Just looked at the 00z euro through 240. Canada surely cools off, but I see no real arctic invasion. Coldest morning temps I saw were around 25 for the triad area. That’s just pretty standard stuff. Hoping at some point we see some legit arctic air for more than just a day or two (like the Christmas cold we just had - flash in the pan). How do the ensembles look out in the long range (10-30 days)? TW

No real cold shown on the GFS through 16 days. Is the cold still coming? TW

Light snow in Colfax. 36 TW

Nothing in Colfax. 37. TW

I think Pella offers a similar model. TW

Doing a re-boot as it wasn't spitting out enough qpf! TW

Lack of precip on some of the 06z models was not reassuring. I'd take 3" right now and feel like I stole something. TW

00z NAM doesn't appear to be much of a change vs. 18z (through 42 hours). TW

00z NAM a couple of MB stronger @ 33 hrs. TW

At this range, I'm really more interested in trends rather than the absolutes that the models are showing. TW

If the GFSv16 is correct, the cold air being shown is pretty text book cross polar flow. TW

Still no legit cold to be found anywhere. TW

Where’s that Wake county dividing line everyone talks about? TW

Awesome. Nothing “yet” in Colfax/Greensboro. TW

38.1 and still rain in Colfax. TW