tarheelwx

Love a good ice storm. Been a long time. TW

This would be quite anomalous. I wouldn't count on anything backing in. But I hope I'm wrong by a foot! TW

what is this? TW

I agree. We have done so much better than those not far to our south and east. We've seen a respectable amount of snow, but not much in the way of ice. TW

Ideally we never get above 31. For situations like this, we'd probably need to bottom out at around 27 or so in order to keep below freezing for most of Sunday. Once the freezing rain starts, we'll most likely see a rise of 3-4 degrees over a 10 hour period. TW

I'd love to get an old fashioned triad winter storm - 2-3" of snow, 1/2" of sleet, and then a good 1/4" or more of freezing rain. Back when I was a kid, it seemed like we got 1 or 2 of those every year. TW

Tracking the wet bulb would give a much better indication of the CAD. Just looking at the temp doesn't give an accurate reflection of the wedge as some places are fully saturated, while others are not. Not saying that is the case above, but it could have something to do with it. TW

Euro did a much better job on the precip amounts for the storm last night. 3-4 days out, it was showing alot of light amounts of less than an inch. It did better 3-4 days out than it did inside 24 hours. TW

How much of that is snow from last night? Also, do you have the ice map for this weekend. Thanks for the info. TW

I love the consistency in the Euro, but really would like to see a bit more support from the other globals. Having said that, my hopes are much higher that the GFS will join the Euro than if it were the other way around. TW

One thing to note on the Euro is not only that the hp is nosing in a bit more, but it also went from 1035 @ 00z to 1037 @ 12z/ I guess a stronger high will build in more. If we see the high trend weaker, we will also see less of a wedge. TW

06z?

On the 18z EPS, does most of that fall before the 850 line swings down, or does it fall as snow? TW

Always in the past, the best damming events had a high pressure centered over PA or NY. That 1037 or so high looks nice, but man it is way up there. I'd take a 1032 over NY vs the 1037 over Ontario. Hopefully the 12z run swing back our way a bit. TW

Yes the progression of the storm seems just a bit unusual. What's even more unusual to me though is the fair agreement among the models for over a week out. TW

CAD can always be underdone. However, I think CAD gets way overplayed on this board. I can guarantee you that CAD and associated cold is NOT always undermodeled. A great example was the "ice storm" we had back in December where temps were supposed to be around 31-32 and so many folks talked about how it would trend colder. Well, it never trended colder and we just did reach 32 and got a little bit of ice in the trees and bushed, but that was about it. If anything, the models overstated the CAD and cold, but most were pretty close. I think the thing is, is that we always remember the times where CAD does underperform and it impacts us significantly to the better. The difference with the storm next week is that there should be colder air available. TW

Euro shows temps in the low 30's for the Triad. A slopfest is better than nothing, but I'd sure like to see temps of upper 20's or lower. TW

I know there are postings about it from time to time, but wasn't sure of the time range. Thanks for clarifying. TW

Any word on the 18z Euro?

I remember maybe 15 years or so ago, that we had a similar setup where everything was aligned except for the PNA. And...... we were getting a similar result as we have now. When we got to the end of winter, we heard "if it wasn't for the pacific crashing into the west coast and running straight across the country, we would have been set. I also remember a couple of time when several of the indexes were bad (NAO included), but we had a very strong PNA - the results were we didn't have any sustained cold, but we had chances with timing and eaked out normal snowfall for the season (thought it didn't stay around for more than a couple of days). History tells me that anyone that harps on the need to have a -NAO but is blind to the state of the PNA needs to be taken out behind the woodshed. Here's to hoping we score big at some point. TW

Flurries in Colfax. TW

Just looked at the 00z euro through 240. Canada surely cools off, but I see no real arctic invasion. Coldest morning temps I saw were around 25 for the triad area. That’s just pretty standard stuff. Hoping at some point we see some legit arctic air for more than just a day or two (like the Christmas cold we just had - flash in the pan). How do the ensembles look out in the long range (10-30 days)? TW

No real cold shown on the GFS through 16 days. Is the cold still coming? TW

Light snow in Colfax. 36 TW

Nothing in Colfax. 37. TW