tarheelwx
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Everything posted by tarheelwx
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06 NAM had precip barely getting into GSO by 1 pm Sunday. Will be interesting to see if it speeds things up a bit as most other models are a good 6 hours faster. TW
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Absolute CLASSIC post.
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850’s or surface temps?
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Exactly!
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Looks too juiced at 138 - as in it should come north of 18z. We’ll see soon. TW
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2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread
tarheelwx replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
In Boone the precip has stopped and melting has commenced. Roads are good, but lots of tree limbs down. I’m sure it would have been much worse if it weren’t for the ice storm a couple of weeks ago. I only drove a few miles. I’m sure a few roads are probably blocked. TW -
2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread
tarheelwx replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
Euro was more bullish on the ice from Friday night as it showed a good 9 hours or so of wintry precip around Boone. Begins as a bit of snow by 9 pm but changes to ice and then rain sometime around daybreak Saturday morning. TW -
-NAO + SER = CAD ICE TW
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Totally agree. Having all the indices lined up 2-4 weeks out is like being in the bullseye of a southeast blizzard 5 days out. TW
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With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong." TW
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I highly doubt this will be a major impact unless the rates are lighter than shown. Heavy rates are not conducive for a major ice storm. TW
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Should be using wet bulb if possible. TW
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That was posted 8 hours ago I believe TW
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Seems a no brainer for NWS to put a 6-12 hour period of zr into the CAD regions for later Wednesday night into late morning Thursday. Both NAMs are showing advisory or warning criteria for CAD and mountain regions of NC. TW
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Again, the key takeaway is that the 3k and 12k both trended stronger with the high, the wedge, and the cold. If things play out as currently modeled, there won't be much impact east of the mountains. However, there isn't much wiggle room left. TW
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From what I'm seeing, the 3k is warmer than the 12k. However, the 0Z 3k is a fair amount stronger with the wedge than the 18z run. The key is to look at trends. For the time being, they are stronger and colder with the high/wedge. TW
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Just a comment about freezing rain and ice accretion. Several have noted that this is a self limiting process. That is true in many cases, but in cases with ideal placement of high pressure and continual advection of cold air/low dew points, it is easy to keep temps under freezing. In fact, that is how most ice storms in CAD areas play out. In most cases with a hybrid event or high pressure moving out, it is self limiting. It's just that not all cases are hybrids or highs sliding out. TW
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Spot on. TW
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This time may be different, but the Euro grossly overestimated the winds over the Piedmont of NC. I think some TS winds are possible, but I wouldn’t take the euro wind forecast at face value. TW
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The models always lose the pattern in the 4-5 month range Tw
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Warm Nov:Dec and then a “crushing” jab/Feb. TW
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He gave a hint a couple of weeks ago on his Saturday summary. Should I spill the beans? TW
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How do you like this for late next week?
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Just sayin'. From today's 12z Euro. TW
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Buddy, keep in mind it’s still pretty far out and will get to the mountains first. So, lack of a watch may have to do with the fact that warning conditions may still be too far out. Just my thinking as it seems obvious a watch is coming. TW
