tarheelwx

Totally agree here. I've seen 1020 get it done before (but not by much). TW

This is anomalous cold air, even for the dead of winter. The models will have a hard time handling such dense cold air. I expect to see the models trend much colder as move through this week. I think the models have trended colder in the 3-5 day range for the last 60 days. The problem until now has been that there's been little cold air to work with. The cold air coming now will be a whole different animal. Tapping regions with dew points in the teens (since back in early December) is totally different than tapping regions with dew points below zero. I think if nothing else, the dense nature of the cold air will lead to alot of ice, and not just in CAD areas. TW

I like the looks through 126 TW

Rain and 45 in Colfax.

It seems to me that the colder the air to our north, the more likely it is to drain down the east side of the mountains. Above average cold air doesn''t really get the job done unless the high is ideally centered roughly over NY. Odds are improving that we might get one of both of those later next week. TW

Shades of last Saturday. TW

Just for what it’s worth, I’ve had 2 ice events this year and neither really trended colder. As a matter of fact, both pretty much underperformed. TW

I hope we all get a foot. However, we don’t get good snows when it’s 50 degrees just hours before the precip starts. Exceptions are when we have a cold air mass pressing in, and that is not the case tonight. I hope I’m wrong, but I suspect tonight will be similar to last weekend. TW

Caution: Wild short term swings ahead. Don’t drink the HRRR cool aid. TW

Might be suppression city. TW

Point and click for Colfax now has 1-2” of snow and sleet. TW

Gimme some of that!!!

Not a fan of the RGEM either. It may have its strengths, but the fine lines of wintry precip isn't one of them. TW

If we get the arctic cold just to our north, we'll get wintry precip in the cad areas. Might be ice rather than snow. TW

I'm all in, and I'll take anything freezing or frozen. Also, we're in that time of the year where we can get some pretty wild swings that can come out of nowhere. The odds are much better than what we had in January when the pattern was extremely persistent and there was no truly arctic air anywhere remotely close to tap into. I believe a beast is coming. When it does, it will likely put an end to winter. I'd be okay with that. TW

Major busts seem to have been in the 7+ day range. They've busted too warm in that range for the first 5-6 weeks of winter, and now they're busting too cold. TW

Hoping for thunder tomorrow night to stamp it's approval for next weekend's beast! TW

I gotta see the HP over the lakes or in the northeast. Enough of this Lucy business with a high over the plains or Waaaaayyyyyyyyyyy up in northern Ontario or Quebec. TW

I'm not falling for the Canadian again. TW

Yes, the RGEM has been quite consistent. It also gets a bit overzealous on the cold/zr sometimes. TW

Is the HRF any good? The 3 versions on Pivotal hit the triad pretty hard. More similar to the GDPS. TW

Still at my overnight min in Colfax @19.6. TW

33.8 with some snow still lying around in the shade. TW

For anyone with 6z Euro, can you comment or post on the ice map for those of us on the southern edge of the wintry precip? Thanks, TW

Seems to me that faster rates, at least when the temp is marginal (30+), allows more of the liquid to simply drip off rather than freeze. There some correlation between precip rates and temp. In other words, if 1/4 inch falls in 2 hours into 32 degree air, not much will freeze. If it falls over 18 hours or so, it is a much different story. I've seen so many times when people get excited to see really heavy liquid move into 30+ air, and it has rarely if ever amounted to a major issue. (regardless of how many ice ice baby or Lights out posts are made ). TW