tarheelwx
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Everything posted by tarheelwx
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Here in the Triad, I just don't see this being a big deal unless something happens to bring in some colder air. Current wetbulb is 31 which is enough to cause a lot of tree damage. But, I think we'll creep up to stay around 32 for the most part, and I think rates will be high enough that we won't get efficient freezing. I love a good ice storm and thought this one had potential to be pretty major. But, it seems temps are a couple of degrees above optimum level. We'll see. 34.9 here in Colfax. Need about a 3 degree drop to get some decent glazing on trees, cars, etc. TW
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I have a request, and feel free to set me straight if I'm wrong. Stating that dewpoints are running lower than the models are showing without stating the humidity really doesn't tell us anything. Honestly, what we really need to know is wet bulb temp as it factors in evaporational cooling and the relationship between dewpoint and temps. If the wet bulbs are indeed running several degrees lower than models are showing, then that is really significant. However, a dewpoint of 22 with a temp of 40 is really about the same as dewpoint of 28 and a temp or 36, or dewpoint of 34 and temp of 34 (100% rh). Just stating the dewpoint isn't providing all of the info needed to definitively state that the models are off on the surface temps. (my rule of thumb to figure out how far the temp will fall once precip saturates the atmosphere is to take the difference between temp and dewpoint, divide it by 3, and subtract that number from the actual temp - it is usually really close) Thanks, TW
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I'd say the am package.
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Agree that’s it’s a little early yet. 18z NAM gave gso 0.51 of freezing rain. Was about half that at 12z. Mainly temps were a degree or so colder. TW
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RAH believes we'll have mostly freezing/frozen here in the triad. The euro supported that with about .60" falling before 9 am Sunday as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Honestly, I think we need a decent bump south and a couple of degrees to make warning criteria here in the triad. Hope it works out. TW
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Quite a bit of Ice for the triad on the NAM. Models are rolling in over the next hour or so. ICON is out to 90 and is south of 18z. TW
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NAM gave GSO 0.24” of zr by 7 am Sunday morning with 30 degrees and moderate zr continuing. TW
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Wet bulb is a better indicator than dp as it basically factors in saturating the atmosphere TW
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FWIW. In the past, RAH was always very conservative early in the season, but once we had a good storm they’d be much less conservative the remainder of the season. Kind of like getting a kid to jump off the diving board the first time......it was hard but each time became a little easier unless there was a disappointing bust along the way. For whatever reason, the more bullish attitude regarding winter weather resets over the summer. TW
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GSO has fallen behind on its yearly rainfall total for the first time in almost a year. Better hope that changes soon!.............NOT. TW
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Model performance on the Dec 9th event was an anomaly. Having said that, I think there are some patterns where the models can be fairly accurate fairly far out, and other patterns they are not. Due to the consensus across most all of the models from a week out, we were in one of those patterns where most of the models could get it right. It concerns me just a bit that the cold and pattern flip to glory still appear to be nowhere in site. Having said that, if the flip took place around 1/15 and lasted about 4 weeks, I'd be good with that. TW
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Not very cold, but certainly a nice hit for the same areas that got hit 2 weeks ago. TW
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For when? How far out?
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Some CAD ice might be possible between Christmas and New Years. TW
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Isn’t that in the northern zone of the WCC? TW
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FV3 did well, but honestly most models had it from a week or more out. Yes it did well, but so did the others. So, in my eyes, it really did separate itself. Southern stream storms seem to be the easiest for the models to pick up on. It was rare to see such model agreement and consistency from so far out. I think that just tells us we’re in a totally different pattern than in years past. I think something between Christmas and New Year’s is a possibility. TW
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JB is talking a turn to colder in the east around Christmas with a possible storm in the east that week. TW
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Did you check out last nights FV3 for the 23rd? Redux of the weekend. TW
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I'm afraid the RGEM could be right as we have steady ZR in Colfax as we speak. Temp right at 32 and trees are getting weighted. TW
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Except for 4 winters in chapel hill from dec 84 to March 88, I’ve lived in Greensboro since 1974. This is the biggest snowstorm I’ve seen here. It took almost 45 years, but finally hit that 12” mark. 28.6 and still snowing in Colfax. TW
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10.5" here in Colfax. That's off the deck and prone to some blowing stuff. Going by other reports, it sounds about right. 27.3 degrees. TW
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I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations. Anybody confirm? TW
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That tells me a lot of that isn’t falling as snow. TW
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dry slot starting to show up on NAM?
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Allan said: Major winter storm with heaviest wintry precip over western/central NC, s VA, n SC, ne GA, with epicenter for heaviest snows in NC mountains, foothills/western-central piedmont. Will post first call map later today. TW
