tarheelwx

Just hoping the warm holds through November and flips in early December. TW

I think the GFS rolls almost everything out to sea at this range. At least anything near the Bahamas or Southeast coast. TW

So it mostly shows an out to sea solution? TW

Thanks. Agree. The storm appears to be fading. I’ve got to be in Colorado Springs Thursday afternoon until around 5 on Friday.

Greetings from the Southeastern Forum, specifically NC. I'm in CO this week and finish up in Colorado Springs Thursday and Friday, travelling back to Denver Friday night for a Saturday morning 6am flight. I've been following the models for the past week and it seems they have become focused on northern CO for the late week storm. What should I expect in terms of weather conditions for Friday through Saturday early morning? I'd love to experience a good front range early spring snowstorm. Tarheelwx

Cold November’s always seem to lead to disappointment for the season. They always seem to flip in December and we never get into a decent pattern in the heart of Winter.

I’ve moved on. Just some flakes just west of GSO since the Dec storm. But, I expect something late next week. The 12z Canadian had a really nice mountain and foothills storm for Monday’ish. TW

For this past Tuesday's event, the NAM and RGEM had temps getting down to 30 or even 29 at GSO. I think it bottomed out at 32 and it was basically a non event. I beleive the snow/sleet from Monday through Monday evening was not CAD related, but more WAA precip really before the CAD really got established. That being the case, I really saw the Tuesday event as a solid underperformer. In other words, several of the models over estimated the CAD. TW

It has been stated many, many times on this board that "CAD Always Overperforms" and the models always play catch up. I never really agreed with this as I know there have been many, many instances where we were borderline and nothing happened, or the event just didn't impress or even live up to some of the models. Today's storm was a perfect example - most places struggled to get down to the temp that the models were forecasting and this ended up being a nuisance event at best. Sure the sleet and snow on the front end was a bit better than expected, but that wasn't really related to CAD. I think what this boils down to is that people tend to remember the really great CAD storms that overperform, but those that come up short are lost in our memory forever. It's kind of like a great game that is won on a last second shot involving 2 great teams, vs. a game between 2 decent teams where the final result is 5-10 points. Feel free to chime in on this. I wasn't sure wherre to put it so mods feel free to place it elsewhere. TW

3km followed suit with ice storm over n &w NC. Mostly north and west of 64/85.

I agree it did well, but so did most other models. Didn’t the FV3 show some of the further south solutions that raised hopes for S NC down into SC? TW

With its performance beyond 5 days, it is ludicrous to think you’d replace any model with the FV3. It has repeatedly shown big storms for central NC in the 6-14 range that the others have not shown for the most part. Maybe I’m just judging my mby, but it’s been terrible. Way too cold with cold and wintry weather. Has it performed better elsewhere? TW

Guys, it has done this multiple times this winter and been nowhere close. Hard to believe we’d replace a model with this one. Having said that, I hope this is where it redeems itself. TW

Big Frosty showing 70 at 3:21 with a rapidly falling barometer. Feels like 71 in not so frosty land! TW

Full NA trough means more of the same right? Just need some good timing and a bit more of a cold push to get something going. Have to get through the brief warmup though. TW

Yes it was a joke. I've never been very good at it. I guess I'm pretty bad at it in person as well as on the keyboard. TW

That counts as freezing rain right? Rain that falls and then freezes. Gotta make the most of a bad situation. TW

EPS showed Great Lakes low for Monday coastal. TW

I think the cold that was expected to settle more in the northeast and impact us has set up over the upper Midwest and appears to stay that way a while. Still time to settle down our way but time is running short and avg temps are headed north from here. TW

Can't load all the snow totals. TW

I just don't get all the talk about the threats that seem to evaporate. To be honest, we haven't had a legit board wide threat yet. One model showing a board wide storm to me does not make a threat. It's interesting and something to watch that gives some hope, but its not a threat in my eyes. Give me three major models showing it 3 runs straight and we have a legit threat. Except for the ice a couple of weeks ago, there hasn't been a legit threat for NC east of the mountains since the early December storm. Any one run flashes of a decent storm shown by the models have all been quickly dropped and rightfully so......... for obvious reasons. I remember winter of '93. There was a lot of hype about how great the pattern seemed to be, but nothing ever worked out or materialized of any consequence Jan-early March. Then, well you know. I'm kind of thinking we'll get something similar this year. We'll have to wait to near the end and then it will happen and then we'll flip to spring. I'm okay with that. TW

Yep. If we get enough to wet the roads, it will be rather slick in the morning.

Just wait til the El Niño kicks in and our storms really get juiced/wet. TW

Actually it’s showing some snow on the last frame in the piedmont of NC. TW

Don’t you mean model..... as in singular? I hope it’s right.