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tarheelwx

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Everything posted by tarheelwx

  1. tarheelwx
    Down to 31.5 in Colfax. Returns back to the southwest. TW
  2. tarheelwx
    Models are definitely trending a touch warmer and drier (though still pretty wet). TW
  3. tarheelwx
    No sun yet in Colfax and 27.9. It sure seems the models are backing off just a bit with fewer of the 1"+ totals showing up. TW
  4. tarheelwx
    Does anyone have ice maps from either/both the 00z and 06z Euro? I’m wondering if it has backed off any. The Icon had quite a precip min over the foothills and western Piedmont. TW
  5. tarheelwx
    If this was a situation where the models were converging on a 0.25-0.35 accrual ice storrm, then it wouldn't be so bad. But, most models have the amounts going MUCH higher. TW
  6. tarheelwx
    I agree, but it seemed the data was overwhelmingly obvious in plenty of time to get it in before the 10pm news casts. I suspect they'll just go straight to a warning. TW
  7. tarheelwx
    I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking? Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist. TW
  8. tarheelwx
    Icon came in with a pretty serious minimum over the western piedmont and foothills. Not saying it is right, but many areas would be less than 0.50" qpf if it verified. TW
  9. tarheelwx
    Can you elaborate more on the 18z Euro? Any change in temps? Does ice teach RDU or CLT? Triad or thereabouts still with a bullseye? Thanks in advance! TW
  10. tarheelwx
    Any thoughts on why RAH left Davidson and Randolph out of the watch? Out of 6 or 7 models, 100% give warning criteria ice to at least part of the county. Seems like a no brainer to me. TW
  11. tarheelwx
    Pulling for sleet, but heading out to try to find a new bar and a couple of chains for my chainsaw. TW
  12. tarheelwx
    Assuming the 850's are 10c, how would that impact accretion vs a storm with 4c at 850? Assume the surface is 30. TW
  13. tarheelwx
    Poimen showed the 06 Euro with a period of plan rain midday on Thursday before going back to zr. Maybe that mid day break can have a significant impact on total accretion. TW
  14. tarheelwx
    I suspect watches will begin to spread out just a bit with the afternoon package. TW
  15. tarheelwx
    That was my second "saving grace". I've seen it happen plenty of times before. When it happens, it often kills the wedge. TW
  16. tarheelwx
    For those of us in the Triad, out of the ICON, RDPS, NAM 12k, and NAM 3k, the one with the least amount of ice is the NAM 3k and it has .45" of freezing rain by 7am Thursday morning. If other models tonight show the same/similar, it might be time to have a game plan for power outages. Saving grace could be sleet, rates so heavy that much of it doesn't accumulate, Miller B with a dry slot, or maybe the temps are modeled a couple of degrees too low. TW
  17. tarheelwx
    18z ICON if anything is just a touch colder. Keeps CAD areas of NC aob freezing the entire event. I'm not buying it, but it does have me paying attention. TW
  18. tarheelwx
    I agree. Need to get the NAM within 48 hours or so. TW
  19. tarheelwx
    Can anyone post the 00z Euro ice map for comparison? TW
  20. tarheelwx
    Can you provide some guidance on how you read that sounding and how you know it is sleet? The warm nose looks awfully warm and thick. Thanks in advance. TW
  21. tarheelwx
    At this range, I'm looking more at trends - I see the RDPS is just a little little colder on Thursday, and so is the ICON. TW
  22. tarheelwx
    GFS says the threats come back next weekend (3/1 or so). TW
  23. tarheelwx
    All the way into the upstate. Wow! TW
  24. tarheelwx
    Marginal temps definitely have helped out. Still almost 50k out of power in the triad. TW
  25. tarheelwx
    Probably getting close to 1/4” on trees here. TW
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