tarheelwx

Some decently cold air stays on this side of the pole for the foreseeable future. The Euro shows some zr in cad areas later on. My thoughts are that those of us in central NC will find a way to nickel and dime our way to normal snowfall by the end of March. Having said that, it’s disappointing to still be just under 3” with nothing decent on the horizon. TW

The Friday storm is the ticket. TW

Canadian is warm and north. Hopefully we land somewhere in the middle. TW

Looked more like rain chasing moisture to me. Lots of time. TW

This situation seems a bit similar to Presidents Day 1979. The Presidents Day storm of 1979 we had snow start in Greensboro by 6 am with a temp in the mid teens. It snowed all day with temps dropping into the single digits with moderate to heavy snow and strong NE winds in the upper teens or more. We ended up with about 10" and a light crust on top as it tapered to freezing drizzle as the temp climbed to 10 or so. I'm not sure why they didn't issue a blizzard warning on this one, but it is in my top 2 favorites along with March 93. TW

I love -40 - it doesn’t matter if you say it’s C or F!!!!! As for -40 in Siberia, isn’t that a fairly normal January cold for them? I’m thinking it’s surely below average, but nothing near a record. TW

Back before Christmas there was talk of an SSW event around late Dec early Jan. I never heard much else about it. Did it ever happen? Since we know the cold often lags 3-4 weeks, I’m wondering if the Siberian cold we’re seeing modeled has anything to do with an SSW. Thanks in advance. TW

Quite the CAD Ice Storm on the 12z Euro from 312 to 324. GFS has a snow to rain even roughly around that time as well. TW

Icon pretty much stayed the course from 18z. tw

I think the HRR and the RAP at this range is well outside their wheel house. TW

This one is setting up just like a classic NC winter storm. All precip types - not a huge dump but a solid moderate storm. Hoping precip picks up a bit. TW

Looks like the 12z run. I should have said, that is the 12z run. Change it to the 18z run and you'll see a better snow coverage for NC. TW

How much ice if any on the south side?

Why does the system intensify like crazy once it gets off the coast. The 6z GFS has it deepening all the way to 954. TW

Alot of times, big flakes means the changeover is near. Hopefully the flakes keep flying for awhile. TW

Question in the Triad is whether we can outperform the pre-Christmas storm. Also, a big props to Channel 2 for not only presenting thier outlier private model, but actually making a firm forecast based on it. Hats off to them. TW

Most of our average winter storms over the last 50 years here in the triad would look very similar to this 5-7 days out. We had nothing like this to follow last year at all. Sometimes looks like this work out and sometimes they don’t. It’s hard not to like where we’re at. We have a decent shot at something good. TW

Check out the Canadian. No storm and cold. Has lows in NC on Saturday morning in the teens - even 10 degrees in Charlotte. Needless to say, alot of the needed elements are there and alot to be sorted out in the coming week. I'd say all options are on the table from cold and dry to somewhat mild and wet. TW

The 18z NAM with a major reduction to CAD temps for Sunday afternoon/evening. Didn't expect that. TW

I think the idea of super cold is completely off the table. However, I think we're still looking pretty solid below normal for at least the next week or so. Still a far cry from what the ensembles were showing. TW

FWIW, both the 12Z NAM and RGEM have dewpoints in the single digits in CAD areas early Sunday afternoon with wet bulbs 25-30. Having said that, there's no wedge signature or HP in the northeast. I suspect the wet bulb will move up quickly as precip arrives. At this stage, it looks like even Snowshoe might be mainly ice. TW

I think one big problem we have now is the lack of moisture. Since Helene, we have been exceptionally dry. What moisture we have received has come through in large amounts - but only about twice a month. October had no significant precip events and October had just one. Many winters it is common to have a system every 3 to 4 days. Now we're at least running about once per week (system this past Sunday morning and the next system comes in late Sunday). So the dry pattern we're in now only exacerbates the problem. As for the cold air - I fully agree. TW

Icon followed the 18z Euro - way north for #1. TW

12z AI a classic.

I like your enthusiasm. Let’s just call it a decent ice storm. I’m seeing 1/4-1/3” in NC CAD areas. Look at KY…… that’s a crippling ice storm. Who knows how it will end up. TW