tarheelwx

I agree. I'm hoping that whatever the 3km NAM is cooking up comes to fruition. It has alot more moisture back in the western half of NC and seems to be a fair amount slower. I could see it putting out 0.50"+ in the Triad. TW

Each 12z model has a bit more precip in the western piedmont. Hopefully this will continue a few runs. TW

In the last 48 hours for the triad, it has given 0.2” qpf the first 4 of those runs and 0.10” the last four runs. Not saying it will be right, but that’s about as consistent as it gets. TW

AI has been saying this for days. Has wavered very little. Truth. TW.

Here’s to hoping the 00z runs begin pulling this back a bit. Based on the amped look at 48 hours, I’d be a little surprised if it didn’t come back west a bit. TW

Elizabeth City.

I agree that winds like the models are showing would be high impact. However, the last several times they showed high impact, it certainly ended up having less impact than what the models had indicated. Hopefully that's the case tomorrow. TW

When I was a kid in the 70’s/early 80’s, we had many storms that started as snow and we probably got a 1/4” or more of ZR. TW

GFS seems to be too light on precip back to the west considering strength and track. TW

Looks like 2002 had the primary going into TN before transferring. I’m not seeing that for this coming week. What am I missing? I see this as more of a Miller A TW

It’s coming. Expect a true nor’easter headed up the coast. TW

I'm good with ice. Actually a mix of snow (first), then sleet, then freezing rain, and then back to snow to top it off is a great storm. I'd still take any of those over cold rain. TW

My hunch is this turn more and more into a classic for NC as we see precip begin to increase back further west while we also see a classic turn to snow on the backside of the storm. Take this with a grain of salt and only for similarity purposes, but it reminds me a bit of March '93 in the way I'd expect precip to transition through the storm. NO, I'm not saying this is anything like March '93, on a similarity in the precip and the way I beleive the storm may begin to strengthen a bit early and wrap in more cold air which is there for it to tap into. TW

Actually, I'd say the GFS is the outlier while the Euro, UK, and Canadian are relatively aligned to be over 5 days out. TW

It's the Icon. While I'd like all of the models to show a big winter storm for NC, I'm not terribly concerned at this point as long as the consensus and especially the Euro keeps us in the cold air. TW

The 12z AI was way east yielding a pretty light event for most of NC west of the triangle. TW

At hr 144 the storm was basically off Myrtle Beach a bit and precip across pretty much all of NC. WaKe picked up a heavy dusting southeast to almost 2” northwest before a flip to ZR. At 144, roughly 0.40 of ZR had fallen SE to 0.20 in the north. Pretty heavy ZR was falling at 144 across most all of central NC. From the look, it could become a pretty classic nor’easter with most of NC flipping to snow before it ends, but that’s my words and not from the model. Also, Wake stays mostly 30 or below during the storm. TW

6z euro looked like a pretty classic winter storm for central NC. Cold and a good amount of precip. 00z AI looked quite a bit lighter from what I could tell. TW

Doesn't the AI have another system for next weekend as well? TW

I see the above snow and freezing rain maps, but are there sleet maps that would be in addition to what is shown above? TW

Can you show the same map @ 186? I'm thinking the map @ 210 might be missing a bit. TW

Yes. My place is a fair distance from any major roads, but more importantly it's in a fairly low place. So any time in the winter that it's clear and calm, we tend to cool down pretty quick, and several degrees colder than GSO. TW

31.6 here in Colfax, about 5 miles west of GSO. TW

Surprised that almost every model has the triad area getting a decent amount of freezing rain. I won’t even mention what the Canadian shows. TW

Looks like the AI just came back considerably south as well. Hard to tell but looks like temps late Tuesday into Wednesday morning made it down at or below freezing in prime cad areas of NC TW