tarheelwx

12z GFS with another historic snowstorm for parts of GA, SC, and NC at the end of next week. Bring it on. TW Edit: Some places would get a decade's worth of snow if it verified

A respectable light snowfall in Colfax and 33 degrees. TW

We have a nice steady light snow here in Colfax now as well. Not a burst though (not yet). Send it my way! 34.7. TW

If this were to verify, anyone complaining about the Wake County cutoff or gradient should be permanently banned. Seriously, I could see us getting a big storm as we transition out of the colder regime. TW

I'm thinking most of us know how to read the models decently and the trend is quite apparent. Unless the Euro comes in and shows something unexpected, the overall tone related to the upcoming storm will change with the afternoon packages. I hope I'm wrong and we get a Jan 25 2000 redux. By the way Justin, how much snow/sleet did you guys get there at the lake? TW

Great run on the NAM. However, with all of the qpf, why do we not have a bombing out low - 1013 seems pretty weak. I was expecting a deeper low with the heavy amounts of precip. TW

Seems to me the Euro continues to be extremely consistent run to runs with just minor tweaks. The overall evolution of things remains pretty much the same. TW

18z Euro looks about the same as the 12z through 90 hours. Seemed to be setting up for a long term event. TW

KVegas- I’d say definitely an over performer for us from a temp perspective. Still sitting at 27.1 when almost every model had us 30 or above by 5 pm. Hoping to get a nice topping from the backside bands a little later. TW

I’m 5 miles west of GSO and I’ve had about 1.5” of snow and a boatload of sleet. Zero zr so far and 24 degrees. TW

Seems to me the criteria should be the total qpf that falls in a wintry form. TW

Carywx, Do you have the same map @ 240? Thank you, TW

Wouldn't that improve confluence to the north for the weekend? TW

GSO? TW

That would be brutal. Would hate to see over 1" qpf turn into less than a quarter. TW

I think the 06z Euro may be a few hours slower as well. TW

He did say he'd see us for the 00z runs. TW

Regarding the Icon and the low pressure position. Yes, it looks like the low has shifted south based on the "L" positions. However, if you look at the pressure circles, I think the "L" can sometimes be a bit misleading as they sometimes look a bit off center. Does anyone know how they determine exactly where to put the "L" on the map as sometime it seems to be a bit off center compared to the circle of lowest pressure. Just trying to get educated here. Also, I do see the stronger High and that there's stronger ridging going on east of the mountains. TW

We all laughed when the 384hr GFS from Jan 2nd came through. Sure it was overdone, but I'd have to give it credit for being the first to pick up on this weekend's big dog potential. TW

I woke up this morning and the first thing I checked was the 00z Euro. It was pretty disappointing as it showed one of my concerns - the cold air/hp totally crushes things and pushes the storm way too far south. The end result was not a very big storm for anybody. The 06z Euro I get only goes out 90 hours, so it was difficult to really tell where it was headed. Hoping the 12z Euro comes in with a bit more juice and widespread winter weather. TW

Dropping in from the Southeast forum as my son moved from NC to Broomfield in December. He's headed to Breckinridge Friday evening and then back to Broomfield Sunday evening. Here's a great free site for the Euro. Not sure if you guys have been using it or now. I use it instead of weather.us site. It gives nice total snowfall maps rather than just snow depth. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021031100&fh=120&r=us_c&dpdt=&mc= TW

Actually has alot of ice back to the triad as well. For some fun, check out the mountain west forum. Denver is looking to get a huge snowstorm this weekend. Models have been spitting out anywhere from 10-50". The Denver AFD is good as it features convection, hail, graupel, heavy snow, dry slot, ratios, and even mixing. TW

And the Tar Heels streak of consecutive NCAA appearances was rescued over night! TW

It’s a really warm snow I believe. 32 or so. I’d really like a legit, decently cold storm. Just something under 30 would be nice. TW

I've still got one more good run left. I'm giving it until March 15th. TW