tarheelwx
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Everything posted by tarheelwx
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While a bit warmer than previous runs, surface temps are below freezing for much of the precip in NC Cad areas. Not expecting a big snowstorm for sure, but a big winter storm is still on the table for virtually all of VA and parts of northern and western NC...... where ice could play a major role. TW
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Now back to your regularly scheduled channel..... From what I could tell, the 18z AI stayed pretty similar. It looked like temps dropped below freezing for western NC (probably from Raleigh west) and maybe getting down in the upstate just a bit. From the freebie maps, I didn't see any big changes. TW
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Calling it the DGEx? Ouch! I’d have to disagree with that one TW
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Does anyone have the 12z AI snow and ice totals? TW
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But wait…….. there’s more. TW
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IS any of that on the southern edge actually ice? Or, is there additional ice to the south side of what's shown on the 216 snowfall map above? TW
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18z AI looked to have held steady, if not just a bit south. TW
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Keep in mind that the oceans aren't just warmed from above. Hoping some of that record cold arctic air makes its way to the Southeastern US to coincide with some moisture! TW
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To add, the Canadian at 240 hours looked primed to kick out something big over the next few frames. TW
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With the GFS, the Euro, and the AI all showing the biggest winter storm by far for NC for next week, I’d say we’re officially tracking. TW
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I guess nobody is looking at the 18z AI. 15” plus for much of northwestern NC. A couple of waves in the 200-300 hr range. TW
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The GFS, AI, and the Euro all have the storm - just the GFS is a little further north. So, definitely not on an island. Odds are low as we’ve been here many times, even this winter, and it hasn’t worked out. Worth a watch for now. TW
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Both the Euro and the AI have a major winter Storm for much of NC out around 288-300 hours. Lots of precip with temps in the mid/upper twenties for a fair amount of n and western NC. I don’t think we’re done yet. TW
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Most of us have been in a drought since October 1st. TW
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12z AI has a big winter storm for cad region of NC on out there a ways TW
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Trends over the last 24 hours have been for the cold to be out ahead of the precip rather than being aligned together. The result is far fewer, if any, models showing a major cad storm. Some still show some ice in the mountains and prime cad region, but no longer a major storm. The ingredients are still there, just not quite lining up like a couple of models showed a couple of days ago. Still need to watch this one as I'd expect models to begin to converge on a general outcome by early next week. TW
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Definitely some opportunity for late next week. But THI one is more of a thread the needle deal. TW
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The 6z AI just made a major move towards the Euro and GFS. From the 00z run to the 6z run for Saturday night in the triad, we went from precip with temps in the low 40's to precip with lows around freezing. I guess we'll see where things go. TW
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That's pretty much textbook for an ice storm down this way.
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GFS triples down on the 12Z. Huge ice storm for cad region as strong high pressure wedges in as precip arrives. TW
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I believe both the Euro and the GFS were showing some ice/snow possibilities out in the 240-300 range. At least we’re not devoid of anything at all. TW
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So much for the northwest trend right up to go time. TW
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You must not be comparing to the 06z. Totals to the west dropped a fair amount. TW
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All the way up here in Greensboro, it looks like flakes could fly at any moment. Disappointing to see the NAM pull back east. Maybe we'll get a flurry! TW
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To me, it looks like a clear move back to the NW. Not a huge jump, but a clear NW move. TW
