RedSky

Last January a decent SSW event the first week perturbed the vortex and Allentown had a top 20 cold month at -5F. Problem was we had a drought pattern and anemic southern jet this area finished with 8.9" from half a dozen nickel and dime systems. This year the polar opposite problem

Still think this could work out with the right timing to get some kind of thump of snow before a change to rain.

It's a bad pattern outside of scoring on some fluky little events like Sunday could be. Need a SSW or the goose is cooked going forward late month.

The problem is zero blocking and a progressive high to the north. Initially it is cold enough to snow with the track but the high is retreating northeast in the fast flow. The polar vortex is tight and consolidated there is no northern phasing.

No just a 300 yard mothership i figure they were emptying their toilets.

I It's raining here with only patchy strattocumulus very strange

Nice kick in the nuts run for NW of I95, lucky there should be 0.01% confidence in this with the west coast chaos ongoing.

GFS - rain In Erie ECM - Atlanta snowstorm There is half a moon sized discrepancy here

ECM could even end squashing it into the southeast lol

12z ECM coming in way better than the GFS turd for the mid month January saver threat.

The threshold is based off a first half of winter dud, and how the next 30 days look to perform, not caring what happens in later February and March in the spring sun angle.

Oh yeah today's forecast is mostly sunny, yet overcast..

Family member had solar installed early December and 27 of the last 30 days must have been overcast lol.

I was thinking this winter is reminding me of 2012 so I looked it up and sorry I did, warning this gets depressing. Biggest thing I remember was little snow and lots and lots of rain. Turns out this December was .25" wetter than December 2011 while at the same time 5 degrees colder. UGH!. January 2012 precipitation total for Allentown was only 2.96" with 3.4" snow. Projecting through mid month we will be far wetter, and milder. The winter I never ever wanted to repeat.. yuck. February 2012 was a toasty +4.2F but only 2.77" 1.8" was snow.

Hey man the GEFS look like a relative crushing fwiw, which is not much

It's becoming the big rain winter on the coasts. Ground is becoming like marshland.

64.2F high

(Darth Vader voice) Never underestimate the power of the Pacific firehose This could be the strongest one of all time too

63F Checking for bee's today

80% the fog I was going to pull over there were areas of true zero visibility it was nuts and the old eyes not helping.

Winter is getting so bad 0z GFS long range cuts WEST of the lakes and rains through Minnesota.

Europe is a roasting dumpster fire so not the typical cold went to the other side.

Pacific firehose is the correct term Ralph

I got lost on my own road lol

25 yard visibility on the roads maybe the worst I have seen.