Hurricane Agnes

18z 3k NAMs...

Well the 12z Canadian gave you a little... I think, at least as of today, it's near 100% I-78 -> I-80 and north jackpot.

I'll give you the Ukie (that came west) + a couple ICONs (where the ICON finally put the crack pipe down and caved).

The 10:1 looks better but is a non-starter given that low is pulling all kinds of warm moisture out of a warm GOM.

12Z GFS similar although still hanging with some for most inland (pretty much nothing for coastal plain/I-95 south and east).

The 12z 3k NAM really came in north in terms of drying up the south (more than the 12k).

For completeness - 6z GFS & 6z ICON.

6z hi-res Euro.

6z NAM was more north than it had been before (it was a southern outlier). 6z EC is running.

18z Canadian seems to keep the same more-north theme. And as an obs - I bottomed out at 40 this morning and made it up to 55 as a high. Currently 51 with dp 46.

Mt. Holly's first call -

Thanks for posting! I was here for 7 of the 10 (missed #6 by a couple weeks because I was 2 weeks late being born according to my mom ). I still laugh with one of my sisters about the '66 blizzard when we had our snowsuits and Yogi Bear snow boots, with shovels ready to dig out the area in front of the garage at our first house. The summer of '66 was a hot one as a note (at least for back then - hit 104 at one point which I think still stands as the 2nd highest ever recorded in Philly to date). My mom was pregnant with my little sister at the time.

18z NAM came a little further north and east than the 12z (closer to the EC & GFS).

I'm waiting for the 12z of that (for today) to run. But here's the 12z CMC (only a tad bit better than the ICON ).

The whole Philly board would be like -->

13z NBM sortof ignores the massive precip. and cuts it all in half. lol

12z hi-res EC looks to be following the northerly trend of the GFS.

12z GFS was slower than the 12z NAM and further north, where the NAM had that southern look with a bulk of precip way west.

6z hi-res EC.

12k NAM is slowly coming into range and the last frame of the run does hint at the same "north and west" trend.

I think it's a foregone conclusion that it is an I-78 / I-80 special. The track and any deathbands that might set up (including with the pivot) will determine how much.

GFS basically looks like what the NBM had. It seems similar to our earlier first "threat" storm 1/15 - 1/16 with the antecedent warm temps and the attempt at a hop, skip, and jump (although missing a 2nd coastal nearby).

13z NBM looks more realistic with that uncertainty about what might or might not happen with that "jump" (and how close to the coast or even inland the low goes).