Hurricane Agnes

Seems to be downplaying any sleet/ZR! Looks to be an outlier. May have to see what it does for the 0z.

18Z AIGFS total qpf -

18z GFS -

The 18z ICON has it still accumulating up in NE PA and east, into Tuesday

Mike indicated earlier in the thread what it used. I just added the ice image too.

19z NBM (18z ICON is running).

Heard about the shortage on the radio this morning. I bought a couple jugs over the past years when I happened to see them at the supermarket and still have a couple intact and one partial (and I keep one in my car). I remember back in '94, people were using kitty litter to spread on the ice.

I remember there were over a dozen ice storms from December '93 into January/February '94. It was a frigging mess. I don't know if any happened when it was teens here in the city but some of the temps were pretty frigid. During one of the worst of them in January '94, I had to go down to Baltimore on a work trip and was going to take Amtrak but was driving to 30th St. Station to park and hop the train. On my way there as the storm was underway, I was about to go up on the Expressway when I heard on KYW that it was icy so I bypassed the exit ramp from Lincoln Drive to go up that way, and took the Kelly Drive instead. Found out later that people were trapped on the Expressway for something like 8 hours as cars/trucks got stuck on the ramps and no one could get on or off. That was also a time when the area was all out of road and consumer salt. So when I was down in Baltimore, I bought a couple bags of halite (they only had plain rain down there) and brought that back for my mom. For the rest of that winter, she was the only one on her block with a walk clear and dry to the pavement! But sadly enough, there was a red cedar tree between her house and her neighbor's that was at least 30ft tall and the ice literally coated the tree and uprooted the whole thing, which ended up splayed across the front yards and halfway into the street.

12z Euro and also including their ice prog -

12z ICON for informational purposes -

Here's the Winter Storm Watch up for Philly metro -

It looks like the bottom part has separated. I don't normally keep the inner tube in there for winter but keep the outer one for when I might want to calculate snow ratios. I forgot it was still in there. I may end up going on and getting a new one as this one has gotten battered over the years. I mainly used it to verify my weather station. I didn't see if anyone posted the 6z ICON but if not, here it is (looks like the amounts are cut down as other models have shown) -

The small tube in my Stratus got a crack at some point so need to replace that. And for completeness - the EC 18zs...

18z GFSes (total qpf) -

The ICON goes way west, with the Gulf low coming up through the east central, almost like an apps runner, and then it pops out off the Jersey coast. 18z GFS is running so will see what that shows. This is why I hate this time frame!

18z ICON just got done. Here is out to 120 hours -

18z 12k NAM last frame shows the beginning of it.

This is why I hate this time frame - the "mid range". Someone needs to develop a good "mid range" model because the shifts between the long range and mid range, are almost always nerve wracking! Hopefully when we get into NAM range, which will start tomorrow, we'll see stuff nailing down more. The 12k NAM is running right now and the end frames may capture some of it.

That's what prompted my sis to text this morning (Apple app). She is in Delco and hers said 11" - 13". As a quick obs, I bottomed out at 15 and so far hit 33 for a high. Currently 32 with dp 23 and lots of puffy cumulus.

The regular EC is still running but below is the EC AI -

12z Ukie 10:1 & Kuchera (pick your poison).

When the Euro and the NAM agree over multiple runs, then...

Holy crap. Just went out to measure (had cleared the board a few hours ago just as it started) and got another 2.5" on top of the earlier 1.25", making it 3.75" for the day and 5.25" over the 2 days. Once that temp got below 32, the stuff started piling up. That officially took me over the foot mark for snow this season so far. Currently partly cloudy (with stars visible) and 27 with dp 26.

Temp has dropped to 32 (with dp 32) here and this latest round is now starting to dust the treated surfaces that were previously wet and the dripping has slowed. Currently fine-flake SN with some fog starting up.

Got maybe 1/4" on top of the inch, from a band that had been sitting over me but now down to snizzle with fine flakes, a temp of 33 with dp of 32, and lots of melting going on. Total 1.25" for the day so far and 2.75" for the 2-day event. The coastal is sitting off the coast of VA.