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Volcanic Winter

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  1. Volcanic Winter
    In all seriousness, thought it was okay for the GFS to show a storm to the south at this point as it normally corrects NW with time? Or is that no longer something the GFS does / and or not applicable in this set up? Genuinely asking. Didn’t have any expectations anyway as it seemed very, very low odds of a favorable outcome without any support from other models and warm temp profile.
  2. Volcanic Winter
    Wow, 10,211.7 inches of snow in NC has to be close to the record snowfall, no?
  3. Volcanic Winter
    Don’t forget Youtube-ology. That’s when you make a YouTube channel with -science in the name and make videos about how Yellowstone is going to blow any day now and wipe out the US.
  4. Volcanic Winter
    Cool. If we get something, great. If not, just more of the same. In a year like this I’ll take the SSW and roll the dice every time, though. We’ll see what happens.
  5. Volcanic Winter
    I guess if it’s real the models will start to have to pick up on the SSW eventually, yes? Based on the earlier charts it looks like the SPV winds slow down and potentially reverse sometime next week. When would that potentially be felt in the troposphere, probably the beginning of March? I know it varies, guess I’m just asking for any additional info on it. To be explicit, I’m asking about the SSW because it’s meteorologically interesting to me, not because I have any expectation of a late season “save” or anything. I’d be thrilled if we can even get a pity advisory event before spring proper, but I’m more or less resigned to our snowless season. I do find this stuff fascinating though (SSW events), and I’m here because I enjoy learning things.
  6. Volcanic Winter
  7. Volcanic Winter
    I mean from a track standpoint it looks pretty good to me, the problem of course is that everything is torched up through CNE. Seems like it would take some big changes from the OP depiction to have a chance. I’ll have my umbrella handy.
  8. Volcanic Winter
    I’m so excited for our 7 months of 80+ degrees after a snowless winter. Definitely wasn’t expecting to hate a winter more than 19-20 so quickly. Extremely frustrating. I’ll take the SSW if it occurs, because honestly why not? I know some people will be bummed if it cools down early spring, but I assure you, the summer inferno is coming one way or another. You’ll get your incendiary temperatures soon enough.
  9. Volcanic Winter
    I’m going back to our slant sticked .4 inches and reliving that in all its glory. What a flizzard.
  10. Volcanic Winter
    Only made it down to 8F here for a low. I hit 7F in the Christmas cold shot, down here (TR Manchester border) this one wasn’t too notable. Makes sense as the core of the cold pushed ENE of the Metro (interesting how the easternmost part of LI had colder temps).
  11. Volcanic Winter
    Aspirational. My wife stopped to pick me up my favorite winter beer release; Nugget Nectar. Unfortunately our liquor store didn’t have but she felt this was a suitable replacement. Would have to agree. Yum.
  12. Volcanic Winter
    @Roger Smith This is the main paper I was thinking of, but there are a couple others out there with great insights. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100248
  13. Volcanic Winter
    Hope you brought a hoody!
  14. Volcanic Winter
    There’s an excellent recent paper regarding the aerosol composition of HTHH and touches on atmospheric effects (while contrasting with other known large explosive eruptions). Can be found on Google, I can link it for you if interested in a little bit. Interestingly it was believed the sulfur dioxide release was underestimated, but it’s still not particularly close to Pinatubo in that regard. A good explanation for this is the fact that up to 2/3rds of the total eruptive volume of HTHH was ejected into underwater ignimbrites (think massive pyroclastic flows) extending as much as 100Km away from the caldera. So a lot of climate altering gas never made it to the stratosphere, the exception being the enormous flux of water vapor.
  15. Volcanic Winter
    I’ll take my 5-6 inches if it means an area wide hit. Preemptive “that’s what she said.”
  16. Volcanic Winter
    I don’t even hate Niñas, obviously we’ve had some very snowy Niña years and whether they’re the anomaly or not, it’s still possible to have a good season in a Niña. Following everything you’ve been saying PSU I agree that neutral seems to be the least effective ENSO state at the moment. I think a big negative has been the persistence of the SER through every pattern at one point or another, and I suppose it’ll be very informative to see if it continues to pop up even when we’re in a good Niño. If it does, perhaps that’s the bigger issue than just ‘Niña bad.’ The SER didn’t show on the Dec mean but I believe it still popped at the wrong times to help keep us in warm sector of every wave. But I also heard some suggesting part of that was the orientation of the PNA ridge.
  17. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah it’s breezy and pretty chilly here in Hillside right now. No gusts that strong yet though. Impressive.
  18. Volcanic Winter
    Thanks, yeah I was thinking more with a direct shot over the northeast but I sort of contradicted myself anyway as it does depend on orientation.
  19. Volcanic Winter
    This Dec I hit 7F.
  20. Volcanic Winter
    I was definitely down to something like 3-4F at my home location during one of those stronger cold shots in the mid 2010’s. Back then I had an Accurite, but now I have a Tempest set up. Hit 7F in the Dec cold shot. Curious what I’ll see tonight but I’m not sure I’ll beat my Dec reading as the north to south gradient of the cold is very tight and falls off quick. Probably won’t radiate much tonight with the winds?
  21. Volcanic Winter
    I know the time to surface expression of a SSW varies, but assuming it happens as some models depict, when is its impact likely to be felt? Would really be a shame to have it for mid March and beyond, but of course that keeps the trend of luck falling the wrong way this year. And yes, no guarantee it even happens just like the previous failed attempt.
  22. Volcanic Winter
    Didn’t the Euro originally have the lobe extend further south and get the immediate metro just negative? For sure NE would always be deeper into the lower heights, but I think we would’ve been colder had it been oriented a bit differently. You can see the lower heights directly to our east, move that west and NYC is colder.
  23. Volcanic Winter
    While there’s not much going on, just wanted to share this. I have a feeling many of you have seen / are familiar with this already, but in case some aren’t. It covers a lot of the really wild east coast winters extending from the mid LIA to late 1800’s. There’s a fair bit about NE too. https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf I mean yeah, I guess maybe this would be depressing given the state of this winter for most, but it’s still a pretty fun read.
  24. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah. We actually have family on my wife’s side in Rochester, also near Nashua NH. I have family in Mass. If my wife were comfortable moving that far I’d be out of here. For several reasons we’re looking at an area from N NJ through the lower HV through the SW CT area. Been in roughly the same part of Nj all my life and ready to shake things up. My wife is also part French Canadian and I always joke with her mom to hook us up with some citizenship, her mom lived in Canada through college.
  25. Volcanic Winter
    I can’t put much rationale into it, but I just have a feeling we’re going to see one moderate coastal event that gets everyone from you guys to SNE. And that’ll probably be it for winter. Lots of hanging onto the OP depictions of the favorable window on the other forums instead of just taking the idea for now. I think there’s a chance, however small. Hope for the best, for sure.
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