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Volcanic Winter

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  1. Volcanic Winter
    @Roger Smith This is the main paper I was thinking of, but there are a couple others out there with great insights. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100248
  2. Volcanic Winter
    Hope you brought a hoody!
  3. Volcanic Winter
    There’s an excellent recent paper regarding the aerosol composition of HTHH and touches on atmospheric effects (while contrasting with other known large explosive eruptions). Can be found on Google, I can link it for you if interested in a little bit. Interestingly it was believed the sulfur dioxide release was underestimated, but it’s still not particularly close to Pinatubo in that regard. A good explanation for this is the fact that up to 2/3rds of the total eruptive volume of HTHH was ejected into underwater ignimbrites (think massive pyroclastic flows) extending as much as 100Km away from the caldera. So a lot of climate altering gas never made it to the stratosphere, the exception being the enormous flux of water vapor.
  4. Volcanic Winter
    I’ll take my 5-6 inches if it means an area wide hit. Preemptive “that’s what she said.”
  5. Volcanic Winter
    I don’t even hate Niñas, obviously we’ve had some very snowy Niña years and whether they’re the anomaly or not, it’s still possible to have a good season in a Niña. Following everything you’ve been saying PSU I agree that neutral seems to be the least effective ENSO state at the moment. I think a big negative has been the persistence of the SER through every pattern at one point or another, and I suppose it’ll be very informative to see if it continues to pop up even when we’re in a good Niño. If it does, perhaps that’s the bigger issue than just ‘Niña bad.’ The SER didn’t show on the Dec mean but I believe it still popped at the wrong times to help keep us in warm sector of every wave. But I also heard some suggesting part of that was the orientation of the PNA ridge.
  6. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah it’s breezy and pretty chilly here in Hillside right now. No gusts that strong yet though. Impressive.
  7. Volcanic Winter
    Thanks, yeah I was thinking more with a direct shot over the northeast but I sort of contradicted myself anyway as it does depend on orientation.
  8. Volcanic Winter
    This Dec I hit 7F.
  9. Volcanic Winter
    I was definitely down to something like 3-4F at my home location during one of those stronger cold shots in the mid 2010’s. Back then I had an Accurite, but now I have a Tempest set up. Hit 7F in the Dec cold shot. Curious what I’ll see tonight but I’m not sure I’ll beat my Dec reading as the north to south gradient of the cold is very tight and falls off quick. Probably won’t radiate much tonight with the winds?
  10. Volcanic Winter
    I know the time to surface expression of a SSW varies, but assuming it happens as some models depict, when is its impact likely to be felt? Would really be a shame to have it for mid March and beyond, but of course that keeps the trend of luck falling the wrong way this year. And yes, no guarantee it even happens just like the previous failed attempt.
  11. Volcanic Winter
    Didn’t the Euro originally have the lobe extend further south and get the immediate metro just negative? For sure NE would always be deeper into the lower heights, but I think we would’ve been colder had it been oriented a bit differently. You can see the lower heights directly to our east, move that west and NYC is colder.
  12. Volcanic Winter
    While there’s not much going on, just wanted to share this. I have a feeling many of you have seen / are familiar with this already, but in case some aren’t. It covers a lot of the really wild east coast winters extending from the mid LIA to late 1800’s. There’s a fair bit about NE too. https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf I mean yeah, I guess maybe this would be depressing given the state of this winter for most, but it’s still a pretty fun read.
  13. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah. We actually have family on my wife’s side in Rochester, also near Nashua NH. I have family in Mass. If my wife were comfortable moving that far I’d be out of here. For several reasons we’re looking at an area from N NJ through the lower HV through the SW CT area. Been in roughly the same part of Nj all my life and ready to shake things up. My wife is also part French Canadian and I always joke with her mom to hook us up with some citizenship, her mom lived in Canada through college.
  14. Volcanic Winter
    I can’t put much rationale into it, but I just have a feeling we’re going to see one moderate coastal event that gets everyone from you guys to SNE. And that’ll probably be it for winter. Lots of hanging onto the OP depictions of the favorable window on the other forums instead of just taking the idea for now. I think there’s a chance, however small. Hope for the best, for sure.
  15. Volcanic Winter
    Where do you see this? Smarter and safer to expect a warm March, yes. But I just checked out the MJO on a page that lists all the model forecasts for it and it generally looked like it’s moving pretty quickly. I’m not good with MJO prognostication though by any means.
  16. Volcanic Winter
    If we could just bag one moderate event before the super torch in the period coming up around the 11th-14th where the Euro showed a coastal yesterday, an unmitigated torch would go down quite a bit easier. Definitely may be some potential there, could just end up as rain or an inland only event for sure. But it’s better than absolutely zilch to watch. Depending upon timing I may be inadvertently chasing that one in NE. I’ll be sure to bring my good shell and an umbrella .
  17. Volcanic Winter
    Honestly, me too. But I accept I’m an anomaly there. My wife and I hike but never go or do anything in the summer. It’s just too hot. Prefer winter hiking in snow and cool spring / fall hiking. We’re going into NE for my bday next week and originally was hoping to get into some snowpack, but we’d have to go pretty far north at this point.
  18. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah, of course this is the winter we could’ve really used the shakeup of a SSW, which looked plausible until it didn’t. Would be all too fitting for us to get one in time for spring. If it’s going to happen, let it happen already and let’s at least try to get something out of it in March…
  19. Volcanic Winter
    23 here, feels nice. I should drop below 22 and that'll be my coldest low since the Dec arctic shot.
  20. Volcanic Winter
    Winter is seen as an impediment by the masses, and I think we’re collectively losing our tolerance to harsher conditions as we face milder and milder winters more frequently. It’s why I often try to imagine what would happen if you took the 2023 metro and dropped it into the middle of a harsh LIA winter where you could waltz across the Hudson (and the Delaware for that matter). It’s at least somewhat understandable accounting for how we acclimatize to temperature. Constantly pendulum flipping between torch and deep freeze doesn’t help people deal with colder temps.
  21. Volcanic Winter
    For the gamers among us:
  22. Volcanic Winter
    I actually suffer from SAD just like normies who hate winter, except I’m the exact opposite. I get it in the summer when it’s hot and gross, and I’m staring at the calendar counting down the days until summer ends.
  23. Volcanic Winter
    Had a few mins and was on climate.gov looking over temperature records for a station down by me out of curiosity. I landed on Jan 1962 which averaged 32 degrees at the Freehold station. However, it was comprised of multiple warmups to near 60 degrees (very familiar to us) but was completely offset by days with a high of 30 and lows in the low teens (seems less familiar these days). Just picked one random winter I can’t recall much about from discussion here. Obviously winters varied even then, but I still find it interesting how frequent we seem to be missing the colder part of the equation. It still happens obviously, but winters then seemed to have a different character fairly often IMO. It’s definitely interesting to go back and review daily temperature record keeping.
  24. Volcanic Winter
    Canada is supposed to stay cold at least, yes? Seems better than Jan where cold was scoured out of all of North America. At the very least doesn’t that by itself allow for some chances if we get “lucky,” or is the ridge simply expected to be so strong it won’t matter?
  25. Volcanic Winter
    I thought about trying to measure what fell, then I looked to my left and right and saw my neighbors getting ready to leave for work. For the sake of my dignity I avoided sticking a ruler into the somewhere between trace and .3 inches. Happy everyone got something, but yikes this winter. I’ve never paid so much attention to a dusting in my life, honestly.
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