Volcanic Winter
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I know the time to surface expression of a SSW varies, but assuming it happens as some models depict, when is its impact likely to be felt? Would really be a shame to have it for mid March and beyond, but of course that keeps the trend of luck falling the wrong way this year. And yes, no guarantee it even happens just like the previous failed attempt.
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Didn’t the Euro originally have the lobe extend further south and get the immediate metro just negative? For sure NE would always be deeper into the lower heights, but I think we would’ve been colder had it been oriented a bit differently. You can see the lower heights directly to our east, move that west and NYC is colder.
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While there’s not much going on, just wanted to share this. I have a feeling many of you have seen / are familiar with this already, but in case some aren’t. It covers a lot of the really wild east coast winters extending from the mid LIA to late 1800’s. There’s a fair bit about NE too. https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf I mean yeah, I guess maybe this would be depressing given the state of this winter for most, but it’s still a pretty fun read.
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Yeah. We actually have family on my wife’s side in Rochester, also near Nashua NH. I have family in Mass. If my wife were comfortable moving that far I’d be out of here. For several reasons we’re looking at an area from N NJ through the lower HV through the SW CT area. Been in roughly the same part of Nj all my life and ready to shake things up. My wife is also part French Canadian and I always joke with her mom to hook us up with some citizenship, her mom lived in Canada through college.
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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread
Volcanic Winter replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
I can’t put much rationale into it, but I just have a feeling we’re going to see one moderate coastal event that gets everyone from you guys to SNE. And that’ll probably be it for winter. Lots of hanging onto the OP depictions of the favorable window on the other forums instead of just taking the idea for now. I think there’s a chance, however small. Hope for the best, for sure. -
Where do you see this? Smarter and safer to expect a warm March, yes. But I just checked out the MJO on a page that lists all the model forecasts for it and it generally looked like it’s moving pretty quickly. I’m not good with MJO prognostication though by any means.
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If we could just bag one moderate event before the super torch in the period coming up around the 11th-14th where the Euro showed a coastal yesterday, an unmitigated torch would go down quite a bit easier. Definitely may be some potential there, could just end up as rain or an inland only event for sure. But it’s better than absolutely zilch to watch. Depending upon timing I may be inadvertently chasing that one in NE. I’ll be sure to bring my good shell and an umbrella .
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Honestly, me too. But I accept I’m an anomaly there. My wife and I hike but never go or do anything in the summer. It’s just too hot. Prefer winter hiking in snow and cool spring / fall hiking. We’re going into NE for my bday next week and originally was hoping to get into some snowpack, but we’d have to go pretty far north at this point.
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Yeah, of course this is the winter we could’ve really used the shakeup of a SSW, which looked plausible until it didn’t. Would be all too fitting for us to get one in time for spring. If it’s going to happen, let it happen already and let’s at least try to get something out of it in March…
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23 here, feels nice. I should drop below 22 and that'll be my coldest low since the Dec arctic shot.
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Winter is seen as an impediment by the masses, and I think we’re collectively losing our tolerance to harsher conditions as we face milder and milder winters more frequently. It’s why I often try to imagine what would happen if you took the 2023 metro and dropped it into the middle of a harsh LIA winter where you could waltz across the Hudson (and the Delaware for that matter). It’s at least somewhat understandable accounting for how we acclimatize to temperature. Constantly pendulum flipping between torch and deep freeze doesn’t help people deal with colder temps.
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For the gamers among us:
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I actually suffer from SAD just like normies who hate winter, except I’m the exact opposite. I get it in the summer when it’s hot and gross, and I’m staring at the calendar counting down the days until summer ends.
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Had a few mins and was on climate.gov looking over temperature records for a station down by me out of curiosity. I landed on Jan 1962 which averaged 32 degrees at the Freehold station. However, it was comprised of multiple warmups to near 60 degrees (very familiar to us) but was completely offset by days with a high of 30 and lows in the low teens (seems less familiar these days). Just picked one random winter I can’t recall much about from discussion here. Obviously winters varied even then, but I still find it interesting how frequent we seem to be missing the colder part of the equation. It still happens obviously, but winters then seemed to have a different character fairly often IMO. It’s definitely interesting to go back and review daily temperature record keeping.
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Canada is supposed to stay cold at least, yes? Seems better than Jan where cold was scoured out of all of North America. At the very least doesn’t that by itself allow for some chances if we get “lucky,” or is the ridge simply expected to be so strong it won’t matter?
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I thought about trying to measure what fell, then I looked to my left and right and saw my neighbors getting ready to leave for work. For the sake of my dignity I avoided sticking a ruler into the somewhere between trace and .3 inches. Happy everyone got something, but yikes this winter. I’ve never paid so much attention to a dusting in my life, honestly.
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I'll take what I can get but part of the appeal for me was that this was to be an area wide event. Don't want anyone getting screwed...
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Gross January.
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“March, will you suck too?”
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I was definitely kidding, but it’s that kind of winter where an inch feels like a jackpot .
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Stop bragging, it’s unbecoming.
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ACY jackpot. Should I chase? Only an hour south of me.
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This was such a good storm, honestly. 16 inches down my way as I’ve shared previously, but what made this storm really fun was the 22f temps at time of peak snowfall. Cold storm with perfect powder. Best storm for my area since 2018. But Feb 2021 was great where I work (Hillside), 18 Inches here in that one.
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There’s a coastal on the GFS with a reasonably good track; it’s rain up to coastal Maine. The thermals are a problem for everything this year.
