Volcanic Winter

We'd have to drop down to absolute zero to avoid finishing the month AN. What a month, lol.

Probably thinking the New England magma body erupts early. Probably won’t be a good time for the area… in a few million years. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171130094142.htm

When I was younger and first learning about the Koppen climate classification I remember NYC most certainly was still in DFa Humid Continental. So was most of NJ. From my memory only Cape May through about ACY was considered CFa Humid Subtropical. Regardless, things are quite different now. But I’ve seen maps suggesting SEMA along the Cape and even up to BOS along the coast is beginning to fall into CFa classification as well. It’s not just us, and that’s only going to worsen. Also remember the line between DFa and CFa is very marginal; it comes down to whether at least one month averages above or below 32F. We’ll still (I think) have some months that hit that mark, though it’s more about averages for the classification system of course. Still, that inherently doesn’t mean much IMHO. Whole area is still near the border of two climate zones, but of course it will continue shifting with time. I find this stuff very fascinating though.

Eh, speaking honestly I have nothing but amazing snow memories here. Granted I grew up through a very good era in Central NJ and I’ve worked since 09 due west of NYC. I don’t have SNE snow climo by any means but when it’s not a torch and storms take favorable tracks I normally do well before it moves into SNE / CNE, like 1/29/22 where I got 16 inches before it crushed you guys. I lived in north Central NJ for Boxing Day and cleaned up there, and there’s been quite a few big storms here and there that are satisfying to a starved weenie. It’s more the moderate events I’ll often miss out on or anything with a hard north south gradient. We’ve had some really fun years though and in full recognition of my otherwise not great snow climo I fully appreciate what I’ve gotten over the years. My wife and I are in the process of considering a move into either north NJ, southern HV, or western CT for various reasons. Remains to be seen if that happens and when, but I’ll take nothing but good memories with me (of course, a few very frustrating ones too).

Winter 2023

Yeah, remember watching the radar and looking at the precipitation shield struggle to push back onto the Jersey coast. Was like, “yeahhhhh this isn’t happening.” Definitely the most prominent negative bust in my memory. We’ve really had some fun storms though, bad years be damned. Nothing but amazing memories of NJ snow (obligatory yes I grew up during a good period, there were other good periods in the past it’s more likely the unholy era people refer to so frequently was just bad IMO). Sorry, had a few tonight. Resin Double IPA, good stuff! Drowning away my sorrows while it’s drowning rain outside and, *checks Tempest*, 52 degrees.

Yeah I got something like 5 1/2" from that one down here (Toms River / Manchester border), and then 16 inches on 1/29. Frustratingly I was too far north for the big ACY storm at the very beginning of the month and sucked virga after being forecasted to get moderate amounts.

May be an unpopular sentiment in today's day and age, but give the kids a damn break. They study / work hard enough in school, let them have a couple days per winter where they get to stay home and go outside with their friends and family. Being able to have classes at home is a tremendous advancement, but it can be taken too far IMHO.

Wow they cancelled school in Sparta? Itching to burn some snow days I guess, lol. I have a good friend up in Montague, wondering what she'll even see. It's good to be cautious though, no doubt.

6z GFS put in a snowy run for the whole of the northeast, which is what he was referring to. From us through SNE / CNE etc all showing something. Again just an OP run at range, but better than showing nothing right? Hopefully a few systems with potential for all, but I feel pretty good that SNE will start to do well through early Feb. Down by me is TBD (as always, of course).

Hoping it trends favorably for you guys. I'll be west of the city at time of snowfall but not expecting to see anything.

Actually down to 27F right now beating my forecasted low already, I guess from radiative cooling. Feels refreshing and more like winter, I’ll try to savor it for a few before my torched rain tomorrow . Any other degenerate non sleepers up?

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/snowmaps2/Great Atlantic coastal snowstorms.pdf Was just reading through this today getting myself depressed, some of these winters had to have been absolute blockbusters. I’m sure 30 year averages throughout this period at times were higher than today, though climatologically of course the LIA was very different to now. It does suggest IMHO that temperature will become a bigger and bigger issue as time goes on. For all we know the less snowy periods of the 80’s etc that are often mentioned were the actual anomalies, when going off a paltry number of years of data. I just always see people argue the less snowy periods are inherently more normal than the snowy periods, and I don’t necessarily know if we can say that for sure. Just my thoughts on it.

I think this year in particular is just a bad year caused by pattern failures. I do agree we’re going to eventually face a problem where warmth is a primary issue, but look at last January as an example. Plenty cold. ACY had a huge snowstorm (unfortunately it was south of me, I received nothing but virga). The event after that hit the entire area including me for nearly half a foot because it was cold enough. And 1/29 blasted me, near the coast, for 16 glorious inches at 22f during time of snowfall. That’s what you get when there’s cold available and in the mix. Wasn’t a particularly active or great winter, but there was available cold that made a couple events work. Once that stops happening we have a problem for sure.

Is the SE ridge becoming a more permanent fixture of our winter weather? Or is it more due to the recurring La Niñas we’ve been having? I have no way of analyzing that outside of finding it concerning how it’s a recurring problem almost regardless of the pattern, and how it seemed to pop up intrusively less often in the past. Again this is beyond the scope of my knowledge but if it’s conclusively tied to SST’s in the Atlantic that seems like it’ll continue to be a big problem. I’m sure there’s more to it than that (I hope so). Just wondering aloud.

Yeah the UHI seems especially brutal lately. I’m not well versed in the mechanics of that outside the obvious. Does it get accentuated by a warmer pattern? I check NYC temps often and the lows in particular are really jarring.

The problem I have with this, is that it all but guarantees we get nothing and have no chances. Have to have some cold around to get snow. Even average temps will still work. If we completely go roasty toasty then it well and truly is over. I get what you’re saying, “if it’s not going to snow it may as well be warm.” Reasonable, except we can’t know precisely how many snow chances we’ll have and how many would be closer with a better air mass. Better off taking whatever seasonal cold we can get and hoping we get lucky. IMHO. Of course it doesn’t matter anyway since our thoughts / emotions / wants and needs don’t dictate the weather (if they did, NJ would be Siberia - sorry guys ).

On my Tempest near border of Toms River and Manchester, for the month of Jan I’ve averaged 41.9. High max of 68.4 on 1/4 and minimum low of 25.3 on 1/8. My average low right now is 22 and haven’t hit it once this month. Dec I averaged 36.5 with a low min of 7. Dec averaged significantly colder than Jan to this point. That’s probably not especially common, eh? Ugly winter so far. As someone who likes seasonal chill and cold presses I’m happy at least Dec offered that to some extent. Better than whatever this is right now…

Wow I hit 32 overnight, deep winter has set in.

I do think we’ll see Niña shenanigans for most of Feb. I also think and hope between now and Feb 10th is probably our window to luck into something until maybe March again. Dispiriting, but hoping we can find some way to make it happen the next couple weeks. My bday is in early Feb, so it’d be nice to get something for the damn near blood sacrifice the area has made this winter so far. Honestly I’m good with a couple inches, would just like my house to look like winter once and then we’ll go from there.

White rain due west of NYC. Somewhat looks like it’s trying to turn to sleet but too warm here (38ish). Fun.

Know any movies where the killer murders the SE ridge?

Joking aside, I'm actually curious though. Of course I'm not talking about a fantasy storm on long range guidance.