Volcanic Winter

Wow, looks like they’re upgrading to a high risk for today’s severe threat.

And yes, a Niño should represent a better teleconnection configuration for us next winter, but I’ve been following several climate scientists warning how the next strong Niño could put us closer to 1.5C of warming. Now with HTHH in the mix it’s certainly not helping in that regard. There was a recent climate paper discussing this (how the next Niño will likely surge global temps forward, and how the predominantly Niña state of recent years was masking things). This of course being from a global perspective and not regional. We will still probably have a better winter, as long as it’s not a torch. Also this topic is more your territory guys so I will defer to what you think about this, just reiterating what I’ve read / heard.

HTHH is the anomaly to that fact. Yes, large explosive eruptions such as Pinatubo release sulfur which converts to sulfate in the stratospheric aerosol veil which ultimately leads to a surface cooling effect. During past episodes of volcanic cooling, there were observations of a persistent dry fog (sulfur) that allowed people on the ground to literally stare directly at the sun and view sunspots unaided with the naked eye. HTHH was of the correct size to have a similar impact to Pinatubo, however it released an ENORMOUS amount of water vapor as its predominant stratospheric gas flux. The sulfur release was perhaps a bit more than the VEI 4 Soufriere eruption from a couple years ago; not enough to directly overpower the water vapor flux. This discrepancy is now explained better by the knowledge that up to two thirds of the erupted volume of HTHH occurred in underwater ignimbrite formation; essentially pyroclastic flows under the surface of the ocean. This would greatly limit the amount of sulfur reaching the stratosphere where it can act in the traditional manner. In short, HTHH was a worst case scenario for us and represents the first time a large explosive eruption will likely warm the surface rather than cool it. Pretty bad luck eh?

I found a new 2023 paper you might enjoy on Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai’s climate impact. Spoilers; not good news for winter enthusiasts (myself included). They’re pretty confident in it causing a significant surface warming event for five years at least, possibly putting us “temporarily” over the 1.5C threshold. I will link it here later this afternoon when I return from work. Regional impacts of these things always vary and our winter was largely pattern driven, but still it may not be the best news. Our luck to get an anomalous large eruption that doesn’t cause a brief but sharp cooling episode, which is the first known event to do the reverse instead. edit: Actually found it easily on my phone, see here: https://phys.org/news/2023-01-tonga-eruption-chances-global-temperature.amp Link to the paper at the bottom of the page.

Well, you’re kind of an all star on this forum. So there’s that. Dude, I have so many snipped screenshots of your posts it’s honestly a little embarrassing.

This winter really took it outta me. Most weather related depressed I’ve been since the dreadful 19-20 winter. I’m at peace with low snowfall winters, but this was so chronically awful and so temporally near to 19-20 it was just additionally depressing. Took a break for most of the month as it just hasn’t been worth staying engaged. Few pages back you guys were discussing whether the upcoming Niño would be east based or not. When it comes to producing colder and snowy winters in the northeast, what is the preferred Niño configuration? I generally just know that a very strong Niño can flood us with a garbage airmass, but am not fully versed in the nitty gritty beyond that. I’ve also heard Modoki Niño’s are good for us, which is cooler waters off the western coast of South America I believe? Before it warms up further west? Something to that effect. Just curious about what to look for and what we want. Thanks guys.

You have no idea how much I pray for a VEI 7 to knock us back a few decades of warming. It's one of the only things that can (temporarily of course, but I'll take it). The thought of going through something like that recent PNW heatwave gives me pre-emptive heatstroke. Lol nah man you do you, I respect it. I just suspect the way things are headed you'll have plenty of heatwaves to track. I'd like the opportunity to track at least one serious cold wave that isn't a short, sharp cold shot. Yes the Boston blast this year was impressive but it was here and gone within like 36 hours. Give me one serious several week long cold wave, of real, legitimate 18th-19th century cold focused into the northeast. And I'll feel a lot better. I'd even happily let you get your giga heatwave the following summer . You know what I mean, though? I just feel like the scales are so imbalanced toward warm seasons that aside from me preferring the cold it’s just so boring anymore to hear about heat and warmth. Not even boring, borderline upsetting. It seems to be the main thing we still do well around here, apart from an isolated major snowstorm. January last year was technically a cold month, but comparatively? Weak sauce. Like I said, give me some proper 18th century ‘Washington crossing the frozen Delaware’ level cold that doesn’t get booted out the next day by the seat of its pants, and I’ll be satisfied for a while.

Yeah, I don’t have any clever jokes or anything, this winter just absolutely sucked. Miserable. Downright depressing. It’s tough for me because winter is my season, where I’m engaged and on pins and needles with each model run. I don’t feel that for any other season. I’ve tracked tornadoes and tornado outbreaks my whole life, and I’ll track hurricanes of course. But northeast winters are the only season I have any real investment in. I’m just not a warm weather guy. Back to my volcano watching. At least the Aleutians might be waking up.

Almost a solid half inch down here! Pretty surprised, but it dropped to 32 during that last snow band before. Most snow all winter for me, … yikes.

32 down here and snowing pretty good right now, finally sticking to the grass. Radar suggests this should continue for a little while at least. I’ll take it. Snowed all day, never saw any rain. But nothing would stick with temperatures ranging from 34-37. Finally started getting colder and it’s finally sticking.

Snowing heavy, fat, low ratio stuff down here by me right now. Air temp cooled to 33/34 from 37 prior to onset. Nothing really sticking yet but it probably will if it keeps up. Pretty at least. Gratz everyone up north! Enjoy!

We are now not London. Lisbon? Catania?

Also 42 and light rain. We are now London.

To be fair I always chime in when a storm is going to impact the north part of the forum but not me (at the extreme southern edge of the suburban metro), and that holds true now as well. Get it! Hope this thing explodes into a burial for you guys.

Thank you for all the analysis and information you've provided lately, John. It's very much been appreciated.

Even down where I am during 13-15 I had snow sticking around for weeks. My front porch was encased in ice and snow, it was something else let me tell you. Now that, for me, is what my preferred winter looks like. Since then we’ve had cold shots surrounded by tons of warmth and the occasional big storm. Ready and waiting to circle back… Honestly I never had an issue with the shape of central / coastal Jersey winters until the post 2016 era where things are definitely changed, as per @bluewave‘s info about the southeast ridge and all the other elements that we keep discussing. Quasi permanent Niña, the MJO beginning to speed through favorable phases, etc.

Through today on my Tempest I’m averaging 41.5 for March, the exact same as January finished at. Min temp was 24.1 on the first, max 59 on the 4th. Feb was 40.1 and December 36.5. One month winter .

Not expecting a flake with these thermals (45 miles due south of NYC). Unfortunately not working this weekend to catch whatever falls just west of the city, either. But I am seriously rooting for a positive bust for you guys. We need this.

What was the set up last January? I don’t remember all the details. 1/29/22 got me for 16 inches at 22f at the time of snowfall. I’m about 15 miles inland from the south / central NJ coast at home at about 70 ft asl. Last January actually had appreciable cold and I snowed with a few different events culminating in the big show the 29th. Definitely my best storm since Jan 2018. The big ACY storm missed to my south or it would’ve been an outstanding Jan, but the theme was available cold and the ability to combine that with waves. It felt very counter to the theme lately and I hold onto it for that reason. The Delmarva did pretty well too I thought, yes? What worked last Jan? Asking genuinely.

Also, isn’t the pattern awfully progressive right now? Isn’t that not typically the case with blocking like this? I suppose this is because waves aren’t digging in the east and being driven north into the block where they’d slow and shunt east?

3/28/22 my temps were 33/23 and I had a trace of snow that day. On the 13th I was 35/22. It was a warmer month overall last year, but even given that I had much colder individual days than anything I'm seeing projected right now. I mentioned this before as I'm somewhat confused by it; with the set up we have what is limiting us from getting some colder air into the picture? It's slightly BN but you'd think there'd be some much colder days mixed in. I think Tip or one of the meteorologists on NE forums mentioned that the true arctic air pipeline was blocked off from us, which is typical and frustrating. Lack of cold air is the least tolerable way to fail, IMO.

You’re sitting pretty on this one. So are my wife’s parents in Milltown.

That gets snow to me, somewhere between 1.2-1.8 inches. I’ll take it. Doubt it sticks really anywhere here, but I’ll take it.

Yeah I’m pretty content at the moment. My only main concern are the thermals with respect to my home location, but that will hopefully be less of an issue closer to the immediate metro and for points north and east of there.

Was 1/29/22 all over the place In terms of OP runs at similar range? I remember tracking it with you guys very well but the day to day changes are all a blur now. I remember it being a nail biter though, IIRC mainly due to phasing interactions out west. But I def remember large shifts and the GFS I think almost near completely losing the storm into short range. Not predictive at all or has any bearing on right now, was just thinking about it.