Volcanic Winter

12z GFS didn’t look terrible to me honestly. Looks like there’s room for favorable trends, taking just the idea of each wave. How do the ensembles look right now? That big blown up coastal with rain far inland fits this season to a T. Offshore track, rains hundreds of miles inland in every direction from the coast. If that doesn’t turn into a cutter perhaps there’s room to make that workable? Gathering cold would be the, ahem, issue.

Was just reading there are two other “pine barrens” in LI and MA, that’s very cool. Somehow I’ve lived down here for ten years and never really paid much mind or given much thought to it, but always felt it got a little ‘extra’ chilly here at night. Regarding the Jersey Devil, I grew up in central Monmouth and have fun memories playing in the woods with friends as a kid hunting the Jersey Devil. We’d tell each other crazy stories and go out at night and especially around Halloween. I remember one time someone deliberately threw a black garbage bag up in a tree deep in the woods to scare the crap out of us . Ahh, good times. Now let’s get some damn snow, eh? Finally my local forecast app doesn’t read like November beyond the next few days…

This is really fascinating to me, I'm actually down to 24F right now and temp is still falling. I knew I'm "near" the Pine barrens but didn't realize I'm technically on the border of it, as per the map here I'm right on the northeast line: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_Pine_Barrens Also didn't realize, according to this lows can be up to 10f lower than surrounding areas. That seems absolutely nuts to me but in line with what I've been noticing on certain nights comparing my Tempest to other locations around the state.

UHI in NYC is insane sometimes. Way worse than I ever realized. I’m already at 27F right now 47 miles due south:

My expectations couldn't be any more cratered, so I suppose there's only room for a pleasant surprise.

I genuinely can’t even fathom how crazy some Little Ice Age winters would seem to us today, all through the northeast and even down through DC. As best I can tell, winters could be absolutely Day After Tomorrow level down to North Carolina. The things people would do with a Time Machine… I’d be going back to a few key volcanic eruptions then promptly checking out the big LIA winters in NA and Europe…

What I imagine Bluewave is like away from his computer:

Thank you, I had that sort of backwards. Alarming…

Couldn’t the slowing AMOC eventually override this warming signal by the overall reduced volume of warm water transported poleward? Granted, this is likely not an “in our lifetimes” kind of thing, merely something I’m curious about.

By then all future northeast snow weenies will have built a city on one of the NNE mountains and it’ll be known as ‘Mt Weenie.’

Does that mean our toilettes will flush the other way like Australia now?

I guess the Jan 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga is why we haven’t had a cold winter since 2016. Makes sense . Nothing else in that timeframe has come even close to the kind of water vapor dump into the climate system that would have any impact at all.

We needed another sulfurous Pinatoobs, not a water vapor laden Hunga Tonga. Now we’re even doing large eruptions wrong. Meh.

I had 16 inches down here in my part of NJ from 1/29, was a nice storm and 22f at time of peak snowfall which isn’t typical down by me. We’re more typically upper 20’s to 32 at time of snowfall for storms that stay frozen down here. But was my first exposure to the NE crew reading your threads on this storm, was extremely interesting / informative and fun. Was happy for those that got crushed.

We'd have to drop down to absolute zero to avoid finishing the month AN. What a month, lol.

Probably thinking the New England magma body erupts early. Probably won’t be a good time for the area… in a few million years. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171130094142.htm

When I was younger and first learning about the Koppen climate classification I remember NYC most certainly was still in DFa Humid Continental. So was most of NJ. From my memory only Cape May through about ACY was considered CFa Humid Subtropical. Regardless, things are quite different now. But I’ve seen maps suggesting SEMA along the Cape and even up to BOS along the coast is beginning to fall into CFa classification as well. It’s not just us, and that’s only going to worsen. Also remember the line between DFa and CFa is very marginal; it comes down to whether at least one month averages above or below 32F. We’ll still (I think) have some months that hit that mark, though it’s more about averages for the classification system of course. Still, that inherently doesn’t mean much IMHO. Whole area is still near the border of two climate zones, but of course it will continue shifting with time. I find this stuff very fascinating though.

Eh, speaking honestly I have nothing but amazing snow memories here. Granted I grew up through a very good era in Central NJ and I’ve worked since 09 due west of NYC. I don’t have SNE snow climo by any means but when it’s not a torch and storms take favorable tracks I normally do well before it moves into SNE / CNE, like 1/29/22 where I got 16 inches before it crushed you guys. I lived in north Central NJ for Boxing Day and cleaned up there, and there’s been quite a few big storms here and there that are satisfying to a starved weenie. It’s more the moderate events I’ll often miss out on or anything with a hard north south gradient. We’ve had some really fun years though and in full recognition of my otherwise not great snow climo I fully appreciate what I’ve gotten over the years. My wife and I are in the process of considering a move into either north NJ, southern HV, or western CT for various reasons. Remains to be seen if that happens and when, but I’ll take nothing but good memories with me (of course, a few very frustrating ones too).

Winter 2023

Yeah, remember watching the radar and looking at the precipitation shield struggle to push back onto the Jersey coast. Was like, “yeahhhhh this isn’t happening.” Definitely the most prominent negative bust in my memory. We’ve really had some fun storms though, bad years be damned. Nothing but amazing memories of NJ snow (obligatory yes I grew up during a good period, there were other good periods in the past it’s more likely the unholy era people refer to so frequently was just bad IMO). Sorry, had a few tonight. Resin Double IPA, good stuff! Drowning away my sorrows while it’s drowning rain outside and, *checks Tempest*, 52 degrees.

Yeah I got something like 5 1/2" from that one down here (Toms River / Manchester border), and then 16 inches on 1/29. Frustratingly I was too far north for the big ACY storm at the very beginning of the month and sucked virga after being forecasted to get moderate amounts.

May be an unpopular sentiment in today's day and age, but give the kids a damn break. They study / work hard enough in school, let them have a couple days per winter where they get to stay home and go outside with their friends and family. Being able to have classes at home is a tremendous advancement, but it can be taken too far IMHO.

Wow they cancelled school in Sparta? Itching to burn some snow days I guess, lol. I have a good friend up in Montague, wondering what she'll even see. It's good to be cautious though, no doubt.

6z GFS put in a snowy run for the whole of the northeast, which is what he was referring to. From us through SNE / CNE etc all showing something. Again just an OP run at range, but better than showing nothing right? Hopefully a few systems with potential for all, but I feel pretty good that SNE will start to do well through early Feb. Down by me is TBD (as always, of course).

Hoping it trends favorably for you guys. I'll be west of the city at time of snowfall but not expecting to see anything.