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Volcanic Winter

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  1. Volcanic Winter
    Yeah, I'd take that. Excuse me while I go have a cigarette.
  2. Volcanic Winter
    Absolute nuke. That's bonkers. We should only be so lucky.
  3. Volcanic Winter
    Thanks, was focusing too much on surface temp and didn’t check the 850’s. That does look great and looks better than what we saw all winter. So the surface will cool with a coastal low ripping snow from cold low/mid levels basically.
  4. Volcanic Winter
    Just curious about temp expectations if the favorable heights progression occurs. Looking at 3/13/22 for example here in Hillside and we were 35/21 on the day. Would expect we’d need to see temps move in that direction and start to adjust lower as we move forward? Just curious and asking, not suggesting an issue.
  5. Volcanic Winter
    Alternative title: Revenge of the Weenie I especially love that one for the epic duel between Nosnowbi Juan Niñaobi and Anafront Snowwalker.
  6. Volcanic Winter
    Nothing like good old-fashioned NJ ‘cookies n’ cream’ snowpiles. Just beautiful!
  7. Volcanic Winter
    Look at it from the perspective that most of us stayed engaged all winter despite being in a warm shutout post December. We still followed the low probability thread the needle threats that ultimately had little to no chance of succeeding. Now we actually might get the chessboard with the pieces where we want them, why not finish the game? Best look since December, sure it doesn’t guarantee anything, but at least the probabilities of a favorable outcome are increased again for the last time this season. Hoping for one solid east coast hit here, and would be thrilled to see the DC area score. You guys are certainly due.
  8. Volcanic Winter
    Damn near all gone in Hillside. Been standing out here watching it melt, lol. Happy to have it all though, certainly.
  9. Volcanic Winter
    Does KU imply anything about track? I think I assumed it also implied a coastal nor’easter with sort of a textbook track for the east coast. If it’s just based on qualifying for NESIS that makes more sense actually.
  10. Volcanic Winter
    I think the best takeaway here is that there’s finally some cause to be cautiously or reasonably excited for the first time since Dec. We’ve been in nearly an eight week shutout (finally broken for the northern half of the metro), even if snow climo will begin deteriorating, even if there are no guarantees which obviously applies at all times with this sort of results driven hobby, there’s very clearly a reason to be at least somewhat excited again. I’ll take it, personally. Lot of knowledgeable people across all the eastern forums saying similar things. This is it, this is our shot. March is always a depressing month for me, not because of deteriorating snow climo or sun angle or any of that, but because it signifies having to wade through the seventh circle of hell (our extended summer climo) to get back to the cold season, which is frankly the only weather season I care about here. I track severe in the plains and south, sure. I track hurricanes, sure. But aside from the infrequent tropical system to hit us, all of my investment lies in the cold season. In some ways I envy @LibertyBell and his love of summer heat waves. They make me fantasize about a two month trip to Antarctica. With all that said, I didn’t hear no stinkin’ bell, let’s grab a cold one on the way out, yeah?
  11. Volcanic Winter
    Yup, the impact of a volcanic winter may not be felt equally among all regions at the same time, and one year of Pinatubo’s cooling episode was somewhat offset by ENSO conditions or so I’ve read for much of NA. Would have to refresh on that. Still, caused a significant global drop in average temperature (see here: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/1510/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo). Just difficult to link to individual, regional weather events. It’s more of a broad diffuse influence on global circulation patterns as best I understand that may express more or less strongly in different regions at different times. Still an interesting phenomenon that can have some profound effects, not unlike a SSW but for a much longer duration (usually 2-3 years, but larger eruptions than Pinatubo that have some constructive additional forcing have been theorized to last for a decade or longer. Subject of research wrt the LIA whereas volcanism was believed to be a large component due to a very large clustering of large explosive events).
  12. Volcanic Winter
    Just wait until the next VEI 6 explosive dacitic to rhyolitic eruption on land that isn’t buried deep in the pacific (though thankfully HTHH was in terms of human impact, for sure), you’ll understand why in the era of modern photography. The images of Pinatubo’s main mega blast were obscured by the incoming typhoon and the hasty evacuation of the military base there. It would blow your mind the scale and raw power. The photos that do exist of Pinatubo’s climactic blast are already insane. Do note that the majority of common images of that event are from its precursory plinian eruptions or “throat clearing” episodes. The main event caused a gigantic cascading pyroclastic flow underneath a monstrous eruptive column. And Pinatubo was only a borderline or otherwise “small” 6 (yet it still caused a true volcanic winter as it was highly, extremely sulfurous). (Whatever that time stamp is this is known to be from June 15th, the day of the climactic blast) Not to stray too far off topic, but I always connect back to how Pinatubo caused a significant volcanic cooling episode, as has happened numerous times throughout history. Interesting how that article links this to shifts in the AMO and other oceanic patterns, if only I’ll be able to read it, lol. I would wonder how HTHH may fit into that, however anomalous it was it certainly was of the size necessary for global scale impacts.
  13. Volcanic Winter
    https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abc5810 I know what I’m reading today. From the AMO wiki page, a section mentioned this 2021 paper theorizing past AMO flips have been instigated by volcanic forcing. Edit: Sigh. As long as I can access the article, I’ll have to do some digging. This type of science should never be paywalled IMO.
  14. Volcanic Winter
    @psuhoffman has also been talking about the possibility of us being in a new -PDO period for a couple decades, and how the prior -PDO period in the middle of last century often featured a crappy Pac that was offset by Atlantic blocking that functionally produced snow in a pattern we would recognize as less than stellar today. I’ve read all his posts, he has some very interesting thoughts on the state of things. He’s suggested the last few years that blocking has begun to fail more frequently and if we’re truly going -PDO for a while (on average, I know it still does oscillate back and forth a bit), it could signal trouble. Not suggesting he’s 100% right, and he isn’t either. But he’s a very interesting and informative poster. His series of charts on the 1960’s showing the patterns that produced snow was very enlightening. Lots of -PNA but also -NAO blocking.
  15. Volcanic Winter
    Congrats guys! Just getting up to Hillside for work, gonna check out what fell around here. Thinking an inch or two (just west of Newark).
  16. Volcanic Winter
    Hopefully this works out and portends a shift in our fortunes for March. No guarantees, but having some level of potential again is refreshing.
  17. Volcanic Winter
    Sitting this one out (at home at least), but super pumped you guys will be seeing respectable snow. Enjoy it after this horrific excuse of a winter. I’ll at least get to play for a bit in it working where I do west of NYC. Hoping we bust high but keeping expectations modest. 1-2” would be amazing after all of this crap. Just hoping for one snow event making it down my ways, but I normally need a 1/29/22 type deal with a strong coastal with well entrenched cold air, something that’s been entirely absent this year. Hoping upcoming prospects might offer at least one table scrap but, as mentioned, can always enjoy what I can while at work. Certainly better than nothing! cheers guys
  18. Volcanic Winter
    On the subject of warmth; is it true that CFa Humid Subtropical climate zoning has reached the Cape and even as far north as Boston along the immediate Mass coastline? I saw some suggestion those locations have begun to surpass the 32F coldest month average for the CFa / DFa (Humid Continental) cutoff. I’ve even seen maps reflecting this. If so, that’s absolutely bewildering. Of course it also depends on the year / season, and I’m not sure how many years get factored into when they make these adjustments / shifts for various locations. Of course this winter many DFa locations would surpass criteria for CFa, but wouldn’t be shifted off a single year. I clearly recall quite a while ago when I first learned of the Koppen climate classification system (perhaps 15-20 years ago?) that CFa only extended into extreme southern NJ (Cape May) and certainly not up to NYC. Now I’ve read the whole lower HV technically qualifies in addition to Boston (again, if true which is why I’m asking). Wild.
  19. Volcanic Winter
    Duly noted friend, but still an improvement upon my current location. Have been planning to move for years and not just solely for climate reasons. But with the wifey on board, north we go! I’m also hedging against the upward creep of the southern inferno. Good lord has it been getting insufferable here in the summer time with heat and dews for days and days and days. Even a few degrees is an improvement, so I’ll take it! Where do I sign? Hehe.
  20. Volcanic Winter
    Absolutely spot on. I genuinely fetishize cold and snow. Living where I am now, the goods come quite a bit rarer than for most of you, though occasionally I partake in the big ones with you. 1/29/22 brought me 16 inches before it clobbered many of you, and I was genuinely up early just hanging out in it outside, savoring every flake falling at a perfect 22f. We do enjoy winter hiking, was just in Northern interior Iceland for two weeks this past November and the snowpack there in certain spots was just mindblowingly awesome. We’re looking to move into either northwestern Nj, the lower HV, or the Danbury area of CT within the next couple years. Good first steps, have to stay generally in this area for now for several reasons. But in the future? All bets are off and I’ve made my intentions clear that I want to keep moving north, and well we’re still married so that’s a good sign!
  21. Volcanic Winter
    Truly jealous, winter despite the non winter for most even just south of you as you point out. I would genuinely love to live up there. One day, perhaps. I have my retirement sights on moving to NNE. Been slowly warming my wife up to the idea. I’ve gotten her more and more into winter hiking in snowcover (we travel often). Enjoy what many others have been lacking this winter!
  22. Volcanic Winter
    I topped out at 68. Looks to be falling now with precipitation and cloud cover.
  23. Volcanic Winter
    Boxing Day is still my favorite of all time. Dropped mid 20’s in North Brunswick where I lived at the time and about the same where I live now. The perfect coastal snowstorm IMHO. But that one skunked far more people than any of the other major historic storms so I understand why it’s not as universally beloved. And honestly Dec 09 was epic for me too, lived in Long Branch and got absolutely clobbered there. Vivid memories of it.
  24. Volcanic Winter
    I’m at 57 at the moment. About the same in Hillside (west of Newark).
  25. Volcanic Winter
    Nope, not checking it again until next December Lol.
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