Volcanic Winter

Same man, I let it ride until mid-lower 40’s start showing up. Our bedroom holds onto warmth well so we don’t have to blast the heat until it gets actually cold outside.

First 30’s of the season! Hit 38 this morning.

So happy it’s October! Beginning to feel the joy of looking to the holidays and looming winter beyond, best part of the year (IMHO of course). There’s something about that Nov-Jan stretch that I just find magical, it probably goes back to how much I loved the holiday period as a kid (as well as snow, my parents had to drag me inside after hours outside in the 96 blizzard lol).

Fuggedaboutit

Event total @ 4.41 inches currently.

Pretty wild how little what was the core of Ophelia has moved since landfall. Assuming because of the blocking it really had nowhere to go and little steering flow?

Man, I’m checking in at 3.72 inches for an event total thus far. Interesting as my location was one of the drier counties through the summer deluge. I remember a lot of the rain and storms being north, south, and west of me as everyone else got soaked.

Yeah that checks out. Ocean Co bullseye for this so far. Thanks for posting.

Good luck, safe travels man.

Bit of a break finally, but quite gusty at the moment. Strongest winds coming through now. Overall: I’m located on the western border of Toms River tucked right in by Manchester.

2.63 now. Really a bullseye here.

Just hit 2.0 inches.

Wow, since I last posted we shot up to 1.32 inches. Been coming down heavily.

Yep, roughly same. Been coming down very steadily now since about 7:15 (I woke up at 6:30).

Half an inch down by me already.

Really putting the ‘spaghetti’ in ‘spaghetti plot.’

Do what I do and start appreciating liquid snow! We get lots of that!

Regarding Gunung Agung and the 1960’s: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/10379/2019/ “We followed the estimated emission profiles and assumed for the first eruption on 17 March an injection rate of 4.7 Tg SO2 and 2.3 Tg SO2 for the second eruption on 16 May. ” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanic_eruptions_1500–1999 The 1960’s had a tight clustering of VEI 4 level events, though not traditionally capable of a climate impact individually, this temporal clustering around Agung almost certainly added to the overall SO2 / volcanic forcing for this decade. The 20/21 eruption of Soufriere at VEI 4 level ejected about .4Tg/Mt of SO2. Replicate that a few more times and add on the end of a significant VEI 5 (Agung) and it sounds to me like the 60’s had considerable volcanic forcing in the mix.

Nice cool low of 48 this AM. I’ve been running about 6-7 degrees below forecasted lows for the TR station, where I am tucked into the Manchester border of TR radiates extremely well and is the northern edge of the pine lands.

Two hour commute in to Hillside this morning on the Garden State Shartway. Thanks perfectly timed rain to make for an insufferable drive… After 12 years of doing this I think I’m ready to move back north (wife and I lived in North Brunswick before moving to the TR / Manchester area). @bluewaveI think I’m going to be following in your footsteps man.

Also made it to 52 this AM. Beautiful weather.

Come to where I am on the northern edge of the pine barrens and get your fill of wasps and European Hornets. They’re all over my property, was stung by a Paper wasp last week.

“And what are your credentials again?” ” I post on AmericanWX, the foremost gathering of meteorological minds in America!” (only half kidding ❤️)

Not gonna lie, even though it’s meaningless in September hearing about a -PNA spike is like triggering PTSD for me. Being that this is NJ/NY, can’t we find someone to just kill it? Somebody’s gotta know a guy who knows a guy, right?

Still too early to be fully declarative but it seems to be quite a long shot. I’d be more concerned in Maine or Cape Cod, or more likely Atl Canada. I’m definitely following every update though, I just don’t see how it does a classic coast rake without some big changes to the set up.