TheClimateChanger

That would be pretty incredible, as its only happened one time on record dating back to the early 1870s in the Milwaukee area record. In fact, after December 8, there are only 12 days later in the month where it has reached 60 or better [many of them right at the 60F mark]. Current numbers to beat for Friday, December 8th:

Great post, Don. I wouldn't necessarily discount the possibility of a 2015-esque month, however. Obviously, we are only 3 days into the month, but 2023 is running 0.8F warmer than 2015 in those 3 days. So, we are certainly off to a running start.

Very short period (just three days), but this is not the warmest first three days of December on record. In fact, it's not particularly close. 1982 averaged an incredible 59.2F over that stretch. Still, good for fourth place in the threaded record. In more recent decades, 2012 & 1998 saw similar temperatures to this year.

Sorry, I didn't see you had already shared this. I have to admit when I first saw the number I had to do a doubletake. Wasn't sure if Spencer gave the anomalies in degrees C or F. The 0.91 value was so high compared to the 1991-2020 mean - which is, by far, the warmest possible base period one could select - that I was thinking at first it must have been Fahrenheit!

It will be interesting to see where 2023 ends up in the rankings. Currently tied for 19th place. A couple of years have a considerable amount of missing data and could be inflated if those missing days are clustered in the cool season [since the values shown below are calculated by averaging all available days]. Obviously, the majority of the years were from the downtown station which averaged around 2 1/2 degrees warmer than the PIT airport until its termination in 1979. Looking at the airport data, only 2016, 1991, 2017, 2012 and 1949 (at AGC) were warmer to date. Here are the current annual records, shown with two different methods of averaging (by month and by day). Averaging by month is preferable when there is missing data, since it ameliorates the effect of the missing days being clustered in the cold or warm months. But with few missing days, averaging by day is more precise. I think we have a fair shot at climbing into the top 10, despite the 19th rank to date. Averaged by monthly mean Averaged by daily mean For comparison, here is AGC to date. If the official site was still there, several recent years would be quite a bit higher in the threaded record.

November came in at +0.91C on the UAH satellite data set. YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2022 Jan +0.03 +0.07 -0.00 -0.23 -0.12 +0.68 +0.10 2022 Feb -0.00 +0.01 -0.01 -0.24 -0.04 -0.30 -0.49 2022 Mar +0.15 +0.28 +0.03 -0.07 +0.23 +0.74 +0.03 2022 Apr +0.27 +0.35 +0.18 -0.04 -0.25 +0.45 +0.61 2022 May +0.18 +0.25 +0.10 +0.01 +0.60 +0.23 +0.20 2022 Jun +0.06 +0.08 +0.05 -0.36 +0.47 +0.33 +0.11 2022 Jul +0.36 +0.37 +0.35 +0.13 +0.84 +0.56 +0.65 2022 Aug +0.28 +0.32 +0.24 -0.03 +0.60 +0.51 -0.00 2022 Sep +0.25 +0.43 +0.06 +0.03 +0.88 +0.69 -0.28 2022 Oct +0.32 +0.43 +0.21 +0.05 +0.16 +0.94 +0.04 2022 Nov +0.17 +0.21 +0.13 -0.16 -0.51 +0.51 -0.56 2022 Dec +0.05 +0.13 -0.03 -0.35 -0.21 +0.80 -0.38 2023 Jan -0.04 +0.05 -0.14 -0.38 +0.12 -0.12 -0.50 2023 Feb +0.09 +0.17 0.00 -0.11 +0.68 -0.24 -0.11 2023 Mar +0.20 +0.24 +0.16 -0.13 -1.44 +0.17 +0.40 2023 Apr +0.18 +0.11 +0.25 -0.03 -0.38 +0.53 +0.21 2023 May +0.37 +0.30 +0.44 +0.39 +0.57 +0.66 -0.09 2023 June +0.38 +0.47 +0.29 +0.55 -0.35 +0.45 +0.06 2023 July +0.64 +0.73 +0.56 +0.87 +0.53 +0.91 +1.44 2023 Aug +0.70 +0.88 +0.51 +0.86 +0.94 +1.54 +1.25 2023 Sep +0.90 +0.94 +0.86 +0.93 +0.40 +1.13 +1.17 2023 Oct +0.93 +1.02 +0.83 +1.00 +0.99 +0.92 +0.62 2023 Nov +0.91 +1.01 +0.82 +1.03 +0.65 +1.16 +0.42

Got the weather station up and running at my place on Friday. Had a 25.1 mph gust today with the thundershowers, which I think is pretty good for a home station.

Second lightning delay for the Steelers.

Here’s what the local office is saying:

Marginal risk today. ...Upper OH Valley... Despite early period cloudiness and showers, the airmass across the Upper OH Valley is expected to destabilize by the afternoon, with temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 50s across western PA. Low-level moisture will be modest, with dewpoints likely in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled with cooling temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected foster thunderstorm development as it interacts with this limited buoyancy. Low-level flow will be modest, but strong mid and upper-level flow will encourage fast storm motions and the potential for a few stronger gusts with any robust storms. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear, some hail is possible as well.

Careful. Some of these folks don’t like when I bring up DuBois weather stats, for some reason.

Here is change in snowfall over the same time frame by season. Looks good for northern Canada. Not so much elsewhere.

Doubtful. More and more precipitation is falling in forms other than snow for most of the continental U.S. Places like Pittsburgh, Columbus, Indianapolis, and St. Louis are seeing greater than 25% less precipitation falling as snow in the cold season relative to the early-mid 1970s. So even with a small increase in precipitation over that interval, snowfall has decreased somewhat.

I agree. This is a free speech board. We've always managed fine without moderation, and I certainly don't want to cause any problems. I just feel like I'm being unfairly singled out and persecuted by my fellow statesmen.

Look, I'm not trying to cause problems. I don't have any sock puppets. And, like I said above, I'm not a leftist rabblerouser. I like to think I'm of good mixed Pennsylvania German stock. I just like to keep abreast of the situation here in the Commonwealth and share interesting climate and weather observations. I have had trouble getting banned in the past from weather forums due to posting about climate change, that's why I only post statistics without commentary and try to avoid mentioning climate change. I was just sharing a few items here, since the western PA thread is so dead. I don't want any problems, because it will result in me being suspended or banned even though I didn't start anything. In any event, let's just let bygones be bygones and get back to discussing the weather. As the famous keystoner Joe Bastardi likes to say: "Enjoy the weather, because it's the only weather you got."

No, I don't know who that is.

I should add, showing up on only a single run of ONE model at Day 9. And as @mitchnickhimself observes, not supported by the ensembles.

I already gave my thoughts. Why do I need to give any more justification other than the fact that I don't think a low-probability, thread-the-needle storm showing up on Day 9 is likely to happen? I also simply pointed out that the forecast snowfall accumulation values were actually normal to below normal (in some cases, well below) for much of the Commonwealth outside of a narrow corridor in the south. So, like I said, let's wait and see who is right on December 9 before we accuse someone of trolling. In fact, you are the one trying to stifle weather discussion.

Temperatures are delivering just fine. With one month left in 2023, it's been 3rd warmest at Toledo, 7th warmest at Cleveland, 10th warmest at Youngstown, and 12th warmest at Mansfield and Canton/Akron. Would be even higher in the ranks if not for a number of recent, even warmer, years at most of these locations. And these are based on even longer PORs than the snowfall numbers, with 150 years at Toledo and 153 years at Cleveland. That's a predicted exceedance of about once every 75 years at Toledo, and about once every 25- or 26-years at Cleveland. So I would say temperatures are performing VERY well.

How about we wait until December 9 and see what actually happens?

Not too impressed with this setup. 0.9" at Pittsburgh is below normal for that period, and 0.5" at Erie is WAY below normal. Outside of the mountains, I think the numbers shown in the Mid Atlantic are inflated and a lot of that isn't actually snow (or certainly not a 10:1 ratio).

Where the heck is that? Clearly, nowhere near New York City.

I think it's mostly mean reversion. Some of the months showing less warming tendencies in recent years [March, April, November] have historically warmed the most. At NYC, March has warmed at an average of 4.8F/century; April, 4.0F/century; and November, 3.7F/century. By contrast, the annual mean has risen only 2.8F/century. These months are actually among the months which show the most warming since the late 19th century. Note that, while the values presented above may be affected by UHI, the findings are robust in that I've seen the same pattern at many locations - with early spring and November being among the times of the year that have warmed the most since the 19th/early 20th century.