TheClimateChanger

Interesting. I can't really make heads or tails of this stratospheric water vapor stuff. You would think if the stratosphere is cooling (as it is), then water vapor would decrease since colder air holds less moisture. Alternatively, if water vapor was increasing, you would think the stratosphere would warm since water vapor is a greenhouse gas. Yet observational data shows temperature is decreasing but water vapor is increasing. This seems to be a bit of a paradox.

Interesting. I have been very skeptical of claims that HTHH caused climate warming. Never heard of a volcanic eruption producing a significant warming effect prior to 2022.

I don't buy it. Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai was a VEI of 6 [or at least high end 5]. Prior to 2022, all available science said strong volcanic eruptions cause cooling, not warming. I have read in the past where a series of eruptions or flood basalt eruptions can lead to climate warming over time, but not ephemeral warming. Instead, they lead to sustained warming over long [geological] timescales from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Unless someone can provide proof from the geological record of a volcanic eruption causing warming, I am going to assume HTHH led to climate cooling and it would have been even warmer over the past couple of years in the absence of the volcano.

It has been a glorious spring for much of the subforum, on the heels of one of the mildest winters of record. Only a couple analogs - 2012 was a bit warmer region wide, 2010 was similar, 1878 looks like a close historical match. Detroit Chicago Milwaukee Cleveland Columbus Toledo Indianapolis Louisville

And these are the same people who made a huge deal over "Mike's nature trick." Like Chesco, they all take SOOO many liberties with the data to try and limit the warming trend. Incredible hypocrisy.

Do you have any source for this, Chuck? One thing I always wondered about this contrail thing, is why there is no effort to change the fuel or engine design, etc., to limit them? Nobody asked us if we wanted our skies covered with this junk.

No, I don't believe the government. They have consistently downplayed this for decades. The data shows it has warmed much more than the government statistics claim.

Willful ignorance. If you change the mix of stations over time (i.e., remove warmer locations or add in cooler locations), you can get a scenario where every single station has a warming trend, but the aggregate is a cooling trend (or, as in this case, less of a warming trend than any of the individual sites).

Not to be argumentative, but it’s been nearly 10F warmer than normal so far. Doesn’t look to change much by the 10th. If it’s +10F on the 10th, it would need to average nearly 5F below normal the rest of the month just to hit normal. So both of those forecasts could be correct.

Third warmest (35.4F) behind 1921 (35.9F) and 1880 (35.5F).

Currently, second warmest year to date in the threaded record for the Pittsburgh area. I remember looking at these numbers and the old city office records seemed insurmountable. Like 1998 was widely regarded as the hottest year ever and we weren't even close. Yet here we are, in the year of our Lord 2024, and right near the top of those. Very impressive IMO. Actually in first place for average high temperature year to date. Unlike a lot of locations, PIT actually does a little better on high temperatures relative to low temperatures since the latter were more impacted by the urban heat island effect at the downtown office site. I will say it's a bit harder to keep pace with the old years in the warm season, as the warm bias has a greater impact on the rankings during that period when seasonal variability is at its annual minimum. But it does look like the next week or so should be well above normal on the whole.

Record highs set or tied today in Harrisburg, Williamsport, Altoona and DuBois.

Current forecast would make the first week of May sixth warmest in the threaded record, and second only to 2012 at the airport.

Best climate. Looking like another historically warm year across the region. Pretty much all long-term climate sites are in the top 5 for YTD through the first 1/3rd of 2024. If this outlook for May is correct, looks like some locations may climb even higher in the record books [especially in the eastern parts of the subforum]. Here is Dayton: Let's hope this continues through the summer and you get to ring up some high double-digit 90+ days!

Detroit finished as 5th warmest on record.

Looking forward to May, odds favor above normal temperatures with equal odds of above, below or near normal precipitation, per the CPC.

April finished off as 5th warmest and 2nd wettest on record [3rd wettest if you include the Allegheny Arsenal records back to 1836 - there was reportedly over 9 inches in 1852]. While the month finished off in a solid 5th place for temperature, it was quite close to the record high, finishing just 0.4F below 2017. Precipitation fell in an interesting pattern, with the first half of the month easily the wettest on record. The second half of the month was actually the 7th driest such period with just 0.30" of precipitation. For the first 1/3 of the year, the mean temperature is 3rd warmest in the threaded record. Easily warmest at the airport site, being nearly a full degree warmer than 2017. The average high temperature for the year to date is 2nd warmest in the threaded record.

Sorry, meant to post in the western Pennsylvania thread.

Gets even more depressing when you look at the cold years. It used to be common for the first 4 months of the year to average 36-39F in the 19th century and early 20th century. This isn't too dissimilar to recent years in Bradford, Pennsylvania. Elevation over 2000 feet on the border with New York surrounded by the Allegheny National Forest, with an average snowfall over 100 inches per year. A better comparison might be to Elkins, West Virginia, which is at a similar latitude but near 2000 feet of elevation. Many recent years have been several degrees warmer in the winter and early spring than many of these early years in Washington, DC. I don't think anyone would believe if you said the ridges are now several degrees warmer than DC used to be in the winter and early spring. But that is in fact what the actual data reveals. Obviously, a bit misleading to just look at specific years. But the most recent 9 years at Elkins - a location with an average annual snowfall of nearly 70 inches - matches the 30-year average from 1875 to 1904 in Washington, DC. DC (1875-1904) Elkins, WV (last 9 years) Obviously some of the warming at DC might be attributable to urban heat island effect. But there is no UHI in Bradford or Elkins. There were far, far more people living in DC in 1900 than there are in the entirety of Randolph County, West Virginia (pop: 27k) or McKean County, Pennsylvania (pop: 40k) in the year of our lord 2024. So really if anything the old DC numbers would be inflated relative to the readings at these locations today.

Also 4th warmest first 4 months on record. This shows 5th but doesn't include today. With today factored in, it will increase by at least the requisite 0.1F. I didn't run the numbers myself, so I don't know the exact number. But it will certainly increase to at least 49.0F. On the same token, it's only 4th warmest in the past 13 years.

The bad thing is like every other month, 4 warmer Aprils have occurred from 2010. So it's only the 5th warmest in the last 15 years. 2009 or earlier, this would have been 6th warmest and certainly would have got a prominent mention on the NWS website and Facebook. Now it probably won't even get noted. And recent transplants just think it's normal because 4 recent years have been even warmer.

For the record, DuBois also set a record high yesterday. 000SXUS71 KPBZ 300540RERDUJRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA0137 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2024...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DUBOIS...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES WAS SET AT DUBOIS YESTERDAY.THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 80 DEGREES SET IN 1970.$$TC

Yeah, maybe I'm misremembering, but I never recall sustained 70s and 80s like this until June growing up. I remember going up to Erie regularly on Memorial Day and it would be freezing every time. Like 55F and cold breeze off the frigid water. What I don't get is there's many - not in this thread - but elsewhere saying this is normal April weather. I don't get it. And don't get me started on the Redditors still complaining about clouds. I mean Pittsburgh basically has a 20th century northern Sun Belt climate now, except with somewhat milder summers. These are through yesterday. Will probably come up a bit when today is factored in. Can you imagine if they still took temperature records downtown? Probably on par with mid to late 20th Century Knoxville over the past two years. PIT AGC Bristol / Johnson City, Tennessee (1956-1985)

Wait a second. Why do they artificially warm old Canadian temperatures? Is there an explanation for this?