TheClimateChanger

I think people are still in denial mode here. The change from 2011-2013 era to the last 36 months or so has been on the order of .5C. The 1990s are about as cold globally compared to the present, as the 1800s were to the 1990s. It makes little sense to run a linear regression back to the 1800s, when there was a relatively stable climate [only comparatively modest increase] from 1880 to 1970. Not even getting into site changes and changes in protocol. A lot of river cities saw moves to suburban airports with elevation increases of 300 to 500 feet versus downtown. With that said, in many cases, going back further to 1960 or 1970 would, in the majority of cases, increase the decline, by including snowier years from the 1960s to early 1980s. My analysis actually starts with a few notoriously low snow winters, a fact that @LibertyBellsaid was "ironic."

You are incorrect. The last several winters have been well below the trendline, suggesting an accelerating decrease. It would actually take a couple of somewhat above trend years just to keep the trendline at the same slope. If the next few winters were way above normal, then, yes, the trendline would increase. But I don't believe that will happen. Certainly, the occasional year could be way above normal. I mean Charleston, West Virginia had 106" of snow in 1995-96, which is more than 2 feet more than the most observed in Pittsburgh. But the 1961-1990 average at Charleston was ~31" versus ~42" at Pittsburgh.

I didn't say that. I pointed out first order sites have a warm bias from that era, which is well supported by actual research.

I didn't say the atmosphere doesn't hold moisture. Just that there's only a modest positive trend in total precipitation in the winter months. I went back and looked at DJFM and there's actually a decreasing trend further south (DC & Baltimore) over those four months. An increase in moisture tells us little about snowfall, without considering temperature. The atmosphere over Charlotte, North Carolina holds, on average, more moisture in the winter than New York City - but obviously Charlotte doesn't get more snowfall.

It's now "cherrypicking" to end a trend using all available data up through the most recent year rather than cutting off over a decade ago? And you used your backyard when I looked at dozens of sites across the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and East Coast.

No need to call someone a troll for having a different opinion than you.

Snowfall is down across the board since 1989-1990, as shown by linear regression. So I don't think we need to posit some sort of "increase in moisture" was causing increased snowfall. I don't believe there is much evidence to support this hypothesis anyways. Winter precipitation is up less than one inch in most places since the 1800s, so that could only explain at most ~10-12" of additional snow since the 1800s [if temperatures permit], and the difference since the late 19th century is negligible. It was simply a period of natural variability favoring higher snowfall superimposed over a long term downward trend. Here is Boston, just for an example. At BOS, the linear regression goes from 52.5 -> 38.7. NYC has been a little luckier but still downward [maybe not statistically significant though]: 28.9 -> 25.9 PHL: 22.8 -> 19.9 DCA: 14.9 -> 11.2 BWI: 20.9 -> 15.1 A few additional inland sites: MDT: 33.0 -> 22.7 IPT: 42.1 -> 25.7 AVP: 47.4 -> 30.5 Why do we need to blame everything on climate change? The higher snowfall period in the 2000s & 2010s, like the one in the mid 90s, was likely natural variability imposed on a downward trend. Recent years show natural variability acting in the same direction as trend, amplifying low snowfall years.

I didn’t start the discussion. Why don’t you instead call out the person or persons who did?

Recent winters have been rather mild, although the most recent winter was colder. But in +1.5C world, they might actually be fairly ordinary winters. For all we know, last winter is as good as it gets in a +1.5C world. A warm winter in that world might bring even milder conditions. We just don't have enough data to say what a typical winter looks like in a +1.5C world, since we've only been at those levels for a couple of years. I mean the last glacial maximum was only ~6C colder, and that had mountains of ice burying many of these cities. Summer temperatures would have been hardpressed to get much above freezing for any extended periods of time, and snowfall would have been probable in every month of the calendar year. These days summers are warm and humid, with highs regularly in the 80s, and occasionally in the 90s. So, I don't think it should be controversial to say an increase of about 1/4 of the difference between pre-industrial average and glacial maximum is capable of causing a decrease in winter snowfall?

Is there a mechanism by which snowfall can increase? I just don't understand what magical change is going to take place that we "cycle" into a snowier period. Makes zero sense in a rapidly warming world. Laughably stupid. Sure, there can still be snowier and colder winters from time to time, but I just don't see the current trend reversing? But maybe I am missing something?

Cherrypicked? Please. Linear regressions from 1990 to the present show decreased snowfall at all of the closest stations. Say what you want about it being too short of a period, but the data clearly shows snowfall has decreased in my lifetime in the region. Regression of last 36 years (1989-1990 to 2024-2025), showing starting predicted value and ending predicted value. Toledo 39.0 -> 29.7 [excludes 1997/98 where only limited data is available; also, several years are missing altogether and there is other missing data, particularly 2003-2004, with no snow report prior to 1/1/04]. Erie, PA 109.9 -> 84.7 Mansfield, OH 53.6 -> 36.3 [excluding partial data in 97-98] Akron/Canton, OH 48.6 -> 41.3 [no data for 96-97] Pittsburgh, PA 44.2 -> 39.6 Even Buffalo, NY shows a negative trend over that period: 98.8 -> 90.1 Columbus, OH 29.0 -> 22.3 Dayton, OH 24.9 -> 23.4 Fort Wayne, IN 34.2 -> 28.7 Rochester, NY: 113.7 -> 80.4 Syracuse, NY: 151.1 -> 92.2 Cleveland, OH: 76.8 -> 44.0 Elkins, WV: 88.5 -> 45.4 Charleston, WV: 36.9 -> 18.6

I thought you wanted it hotter. Also, not sure about drier summers, volcanos typically cause colder, wetter summers, no? 1992 was the 3rd wettest summer on record following the Pinatubo eruption.

I don't know what trough was over the Ohio Valley last summer. The region saw the worst drought since the Drought Monitor began in 2000 for many areas, with the most 90+ days in decades [and hottest temps in decades in some spots].

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 302 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 PAC125-161915- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-250516T1915Z/ Washington PA- 302 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY... At 302 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 10 miles north of Waynesburg, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Deemston, Marianna, Scenery Hill and Amity. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4002 8024 4007 8024 4013 8011 4009 8008 4001 8006 4001 8020 TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 260DEG 31KT 4003 8025 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ Rackley

Clearly the coldest spring on record in Nashua! Oh wait, if the month ended today, it would be 11th warmest [of 157 years] in nearby Concord. And 5th warmest out of a shortened 67-year hit-or-miss POR at Manchester. 1998's average is missing the entire month of March and tossed.

Anyways, I digress. Look at this carbon capture scam. They couldn't even capture enough carbon to offset their own emissions!

Not to mention, with no air conditioning or refrigeration, for that matter, climate change would have been much more devastating. There probably would've been billions of deaths already, so I think it would be viewed with much greater urgency. Of course, climate change wouldn't have progressed as it did without all of these modern amenities of industrial society in the first place.

This might be controversial, but I'm not sure air conditioning has been a net positive. It has resulted in a huge rush of population to the so-called sunbelt. These places used to be backwoods hillbillies. I don't think most people realize this, but just 100 years ago, a sizable number of southern white people were illiterate. Not even talking about freed slaves, but the white population. This caused great harm to the interior northeast and Midwest, with a flight of companies to the south where there are laxer labor laws, low taxes, anti-Unionism, etc. If, after the defeat of the South and the freeing of the slaves, we had let them leave the Union, history would have been significantly different. We would have likely had more pro-Socialist politicians. Perhaps instead of a Georgia peanut farmer, a pro-labor Mafioso from Chicago or Detroit would have become president in 1976. Reagan would have stood no chance. The Southerners had nothing to lose since poor education and poverty was endemic to the region, so they just wrapped themselves in a flag (often, ironically, not even the American flag) and a bible. Can you imagine the megalopolitan paradise that an independent North, Midwest and West would have established without this flight to the bottom of the barrel on taxes and labor protections? It's somewhat problematic when a region responsible for 400k American deaths - that has always been unrepentant - can be allowed to become a region of growth at the expense of places who fought against the Southern War of Aggression. I mean the South's biggest exports in the mid 20th century were what - cotton and the KKK? Kind of like Hank Williams, Jr. "If the South Woulda Won" but instead the North wins and kicks the South out after freeing all of the slaves. In this hypothetical, the Great Depression probably doesn't occur - at least not with the same ferocity - and so Roosevelt is not elected to 4 consecutive terms. With no term limits, Bernie Sanders (or another left-leaning populist) may have become essentially president for life.

Not sure the heat was the cause of the power outage. Sounds like severe thunderstorms took out two high voltage lines at a major power plant. And the riots were caused by opportunistic criminals, likely poisoned by the proliferation of leaded gasoline.

By mean temperature, it is typically the hottest in the CWA. Maybe other portions of New Jersey outside of the Upton CWA are warmer. The siting near the Bay probably elevates overnight lows enough to offset the slight cooling effect on daytime maxima.

Upstate data confirms 1977 as a cold summer. Syracuse - mean temp of 66.9F, which is 11th coldest on record. Last matched in 2000, and exceeded in 1992 - both recognized as extremely cold summers. Albany - mean temp of 68.0F, which is 16th coldest on record. As in the case of Syracuse, not seen since 2000. Pittsburgh - mean of 67.9F, second coldest on record. There hasn't been a year since that was even close to it. Perplexing how Central Park could reach 104F, when places upstream barely topped 90F that summer? What generated that heat? As you said, it can't get hot on southerly wind... so it must have come from the west? Yet there were no hot temperatures to the west.

1977 would be a summer of yore [in terms of cold, not heat] today. Freezing cold compared to most summers nowadays. Sorry, I don't buy all of those 100s at Central Park. Central Park is typically one of the cooler spots, not the absolute hottest spot. That makes zero sense. Why would a park be hotter than an asphalt-ridden airport? 74.8F mean at EWR is COLD compared to most summers. This is not believable:

Yeah, but like I said in the other thread, that might actually be a cold summer for a +1.5C world. Imagine when the weather gods bless us with the right pattern to maximize heat. It might blow way by those levels.

Don't forget about natural variability. Like recent summers - well above historical norms - might actually be unusually cold summers for a +1.5C world. You need at least 30-50 years of data to get a full sense of what the climate of a given region is capable of producing in terms of extremes. Right now, we only have a couple of years' worth of data at +1.5C. It might be that, given the right pattern, we could see a summer far exceeding anything ever recorded.

NCEI has last summer as the warmest on record for the Northern District of New Jersey, which is well supported by that data. 1993 was very hot, no doubt, but overall mean temperatures were somewhat higher last summer. So, it's funny to argue there's been a lack of recent heat waves when just last summer was one of the hottest on record in that area.