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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    Yep track and strength of the low. If the low is to our se and is as strong as depicted on guidance (eps mean in the 980s) this could get really interesting even for the coast. Even your area in NYC is in the game of the euro has the right idea with the low location.
  2. George001
    Around half of those would be a good track for SNE as well
  3. George001
    Good low location
  4. George001
    That second low off the SE coast is interesting. When there are 2 lows like that, weird shit can happen like one of the lows absorbing the other. Doesn’t happen often, but I do remember one storm where it did. I was forecast to get 4-8 inches of snow and ended up with 2 feet.
  5. George001
    I know I’m grasping at straws a bit here, but it’s a strong storm and not that far NW. What are a couple of wild card factors that could change things so us in eastern mass are in the game for big snows as well? Something like the energy closing off maybe?
  6. George001
    Yeah that is ideal for east coast cyclogenesis, I’m rooting for the ridge to trend more amplified to give the storm more room to dig and get farther se areas in the game.
  7. George001
    Quite a few slightly offshore lows
  8. George001
    this is worth watching even if the surface shows rain.
  9. George001
    984 mb is fairly strong, would like to see the deepening happen a little sooner though. Also need the overall evolution to slow down a bit so the cold air has more time to establish itself.
  10. George001
    Huh? The low only needs to shift 50 miles east, still 5 days out.
  11. George001
    That is very close, the airmass isn’t great but the low is strong enough to create its own cold air. Need to get the low to track a little farther east and game on for a rain to heavy snow scenario.
  12. George001
    Too early to write it off, it looks bad but there’s still a couple weeks left for us to possibly get lucky and get a big storm and snow in a bad pattern. There’s no way we get shut out for the entire month….
  13. George001
    Ensembles look good for mid month, I’m not giving up until early-mid April.
  14. George001
    Also despite the surface trending worse from 0z, the upper levels trended better, there was hardly any blocking at 0z. We need that to continue to get the storm to redevelop farther south.
  15. George001
    This far out that’s doable, also you if the low deepens as much as the Euro says it will we don’t need a perfect track. The storm will create its own cold air, and the rain snow line would crash south. It can snow east of the low.
  16. George001
    Greenland blocking showing up on the Euro, this threat looks interesting.
  17. George001
    I need to see a few more favorable changes in the pattern before I start talking blizzards, right now the western ridge axis is west of ideal, so an inland runner is possible. However there are signs of weak North Atlantic blocking starting to form, which could turn it into a Miller B. If we see the blocking strengthen on the guidance, then I’m all in.
  18. George001
    Eps looks decent, geps is also trying for a Miller B. That’s what the models look to be hinting at right now, a low initially cuts to our west, but then redevelops and bombs out just a little too late. Get that redevelopment to happen a little earlier and all of a sudden we have a big nor’easter.
  19. George001
    Is that North Atlantic blocking over Greenland? Wow
  20. George001
    that’s a very strong signal this far out
  21. George001
    I’m rooting for that to be right. I’d like to see a late March early April nor’easter/blizzard, and it looks like we could have a shot at it this year.
  22. George001
    I agree, if the NAO is raging positive, it’s not ideal but it can work (like 2014-2015). If there is a trough out west it is a lot harder to get big storms.
  23. George001
    The polar vortex reconsolidates over the North Pole? Ah damn it, I thought we were having a polar vortex split just in time for a big finish. We need the pacific to improve.
  24. George001
    Possible PV split, there is some lag so we won’t feel the effects until mid to late March and early April.
  25. George001
    Yep. Still have a month left of threats, possibly a bit longer if the pattern looks great in early April. It’s going to get mild but the mild stretch looks to be short lived, with the rapid weakening of polar vortex and MJO wave dying off in the COD. Way to early to give up on winter.
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