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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    This far out that’s doable, also you if the low deepens as much as the Euro says it will we don’t need a perfect track. The storm will create its own cold air, and the rain snow line would crash south. It can snow east of the low.
  2. George001
    Greenland blocking showing up on the Euro, this threat looks interesting.
  3. George001
    I need to see a few more favorable changes in the pattern before I start talking blizzards, right now the western ridge axis is west of ideal, so an inland runner is possible. However there are signs of weak North Atlantic blocking starting to form, which could turn it into a Miller B. If we see the blocking strengthen on the guidance, then I’m all in.
  4. George001
    Eps looks decent, geps is also trying for a Miller B. That’s what the models look to be hinting at right now, a low initially cuts to our west, but then redevelops and bombs out just a little too late. Get that redevelopment to happen a little earlier and all of a sudden we have a big nor’easter.
  5. George001
    Is that North Atlantic blocking over Greenland? Wow
  6. George001
    that’s a very strong signal this far out
  7. George001
    I’m rooting for that to be right. I’d like to see a late March early April nor’easter/blizzard, and it looks like we could have a shot at it this year.
  8. George001
    I agree, if the NAO is raging positive, it’s not ideal but it can work (like 2014-2015). If there is a trough out west it is a lot harder to get big storms.
  9. George001
    The polar vortex reconsolidates over the North Pole? Ah damn it, I thought we were having a polar vortex split just in time for a big finish. We need the pacific to improve.
  10. George001
    Possible PV split, there is some lag so we won’t feel the effects until mid to late March and early April.
  11. George001
    Yep. Still have a month left of threats, possibly a bit longer if the pattern looks great in early April. It’s going to get mild but the mild stretch looks to be short lived, with the rapid weakening of polar vortex and MJO wave dying off in the COD. Way to early to give up on winter.
  12. George001
    Congrats Montreal?
  13. George001
    Im not a fan of the look on the models for early month. I hate seeing a trough out west and a lack of blocking. We could still snow in a bad pattern because we live in New England not DC where you need a perfect pattern to snow, but probably nothing big. There are positive signs for mid month though. The polar vortex is expected to weaken a lot as well as a more favorable MJO projected mid to late March. Hopefully that leads to the pattern improving with a big storm before spring.
  14. George001
    Hopefully a weak one. Moderate and stronger not good for my area (though in NYC they can be better). Weak west based ninos are where we get most of our truly epic winters. 77-78, 2014-2015, 2004-2005 all had weak west based ninos. It’s been a while since we had an epic region wide winter with well above normal snow in all of New England.
  15. George001
    What do you think about the March 7th threat? SE ridge too strong at that point or is there room for it to turn into an swfe or Miller B? I would think we need that vortex over Greenland a bit farther south to force secondary redevelopment.
  16. George001
    Looks like maybe a few smaller storms early March, maybe we can get something big the second week? Models are showing a cutter, but it wouldn’t take much to turn that into a SWFE or even Miller B.
  17. George001
    We’ve had a tough stretch the past few years. Last 3 years in particular were horrendous in se areas, this is the first real winter we have had since 2018.
  18. George001
    Yeah we definitely have gotten lucky. Usually there’s at least 1 or 2 events that screw se ma and clobber NW zones, like that early Feb storm last year where I got 8 or so inches, Boston got barely anything and just NW got like 18+. As much as I hope we keep getting lucky this year, climo especially March climo favors a storm that screws us and clobbers NW areas. There’s a reason NW areas average more than us in se ma. I still think we could see something like that in March or even early April this year.
  19. George001
    Boston over 50 inches for the winter now, how high do you guys think the seasonal total gets? I still think there’s one more big storm before winter ends, so I could see an outside shot at Boston making a late run at 70-80 inches if things break our way with the pattern. Even without a big storm, doesn’t look like a shutout pattern is coming anytime soon so 60+ seems reasonable.
  20. George001
    Snow rates are starting to pick up some here. Maybe another inch or 2 before the storm ends?
  21. George001
    Yeah some of the areas that the Euro had getting 9-10 inches even last night ended up with like 2-3 with mostly sleet.
  22. George001
    As much shit as I gave the NAM, it was pretty good especially close in. Too amped with the warm layer a couple days ago, but the other models were too far south with it. Big bust for my big 3 and my forecast, the mid level warmth was more aggressive than I thought it would be. Rays final call looks like it’s going to verify fairly well.
  23. George001
    The euro even last night gave me 9-10 inches. I don’t see 9-10 inches out there, shitty storm.
  24. George001
    Welp onto the next storm, hopefully the next one doesn’t underperform like this piece of shit. Early March the pattern looks better, still think the March 3-4 window can turn into a Miller B. Just too much warm air aloft for this one.
  25. George001
    Foxboro
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