George001
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Everything posted by George001
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I don’t buy that the ridge rolls over from that depiction.
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Positive PNA, weakening negative NAO, northern energy diving down and the TPV in eastern Canada. Yeah it would be nice to see that blue near Alaska a bit more west, but overall I thought this looked great.
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Obviously it’s not a guarantee, but the blizzard talk isn’t “bullshit”. If the ridge doesn’t roll over, that would allow the intense northern energy phase with the southern energy. This setup has a strong high to to the north, the contrast between the high and low pressure if the storm phases would lead to intense winds as well as heavy snow. There absolutely is blizzard potential if things come together for this threat.
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Nothing has changed, I still believe in this threat. I am convinced the amplified pattern will not allow the ridge to roll over. If anything, my confidence in this threat has increased over the past couple of days. The h5 looks great.
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March 13th 2018 was ots even like 5 days out, then it trended hundreds of miles west last min. My forecast was for 2-4 a couple days out, then it got bumped up to 4-8, then 6-12, then 12-18, then I ended up with 2 feet of snow. It’s way too early to give up on this threat.
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I’m not buying the gfs at all because it has the ridge rolling over. I could be wrong but I’m sticking to my guns, I’m convinced we see a drastic shift west on all guidance in 2-3 days. I’m all in on this threat, and plan to make a snow forecast tomorrow for this Miller B nor’easter/blizzard threat.
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Jan 2015 had multiple 50+ days and I’m pretty sure it had a couple 60s the first half of the month. In Feb 2017 we had a blizzard days after 70 degree weather. Calling for +8 for an entire month based on a projected mild first week (still far enough out to possibly change) is ridiculous. The pattern early Jan on the models is obviously not a cold one, but it’s not record warm either. It looks like the -NAO reloads while the pacific is bad (+EPO) early month. It’s not a great pattern but closing the shades? Nah, positive NAO and EPO with a negative PNA is close the shades.
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I noticed the western ridge was rolling over late causing the phase to miss. Since the models often rush pattern changes, I would think it’s possible the ridge never does roll over until after the storm. Isn’t that something that happens in a progressive pattern/fast flow regime? I don’t really buy that the pattern is progressive at all with Fridays low deepening to the 960s buckling the flow even more.
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That’s a valid point you bring up, I’d take the 984mb due to the contrast between the low and high pressures. That’s a blizzard for sure.
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Shades remain wide open, yes it gets a little mild if the models are right but slightly above normal temps could still be snow in January in New England. The Mid Atlantic is probably cooked if this is right, but New England isn’t. Besides there’s the Miller B nor’easter/blizzard threat the 27th-29th. yeah I said it, and I stand by it looking at the 500 mb pattern. This isn’t some moderate 6-12 inch storm threat (not that there is anything wrong with that, hell I was hoping we would get a couple earlier in the month). The Euro is hinting at the incredibly rare triple phaser setup. Now I wouldn’t expect us to actually get a triple phaser. Just a normal phase would still be one hell of a storm, a triple phaser would lead to this suddenly becoming one of the snowiest Decembers on record. However, despite the triple phase being extremely unlikely, the fact that the best guidance we have is even hinting at that shows how much potential this storm has.
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Last storm trended 1000 miles west. This storm is exactly what I want to see at this lead time. Well offshore, with a 500 mb pattern that argues for a farther west track. Hell, the Euro hinted at triple phaser potential. Looking at the surface yeah it look like there isn’t a threat, but there is a lot of energy flying around. The ingredients are all there, good airmass, ideally placed PNA ridge and weakening NAO blocking. Honestly, I’m kind of glad the Friday storm is going to cut and blow up rather than just be like a 990mb low over Boston or something. Really the difference for coastal areas is 55 vs 45 degree rain, but the monster cutter sets up the next threat better than a 990mb low over Boston would.
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2nd half of December, Jan, Feb, and March. We’re heading into the 3rd week of December and the last week of March is very unfavorable, so I guess it’s more like 3 months of winter. Still, the point remains. There is a lot of winter left, hell winter hasn’t even officially started yet (it starts tomorrow, December 21st). I know some people say on here March isn’t a winter month, but I strongly disagree with that. March is more favorable than December for massive blizzards.
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I don’t get writing off early January. The models were wrong about the epic pattern, they could easily be wrong about the expected garbage pattern. Just shift that vortex in AK a few hundred miles west and things look a lot different. The Friday storm, yeah that’s gonna cut. But after that in my opinion we will have more chances. The models are showing signs of the blocking reloading, but the Pac is bad similar to the first half of December. Even if the models are right, the shutout look only lasts like a week at most on most guidance. Besides, isn’t there a lot more room for error with a bad pac in January than December? The pac still matters don’t get me wrong, but maybe we can work with a bad pac+good Atlantic when climo is more favorable.
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That is so close to a big solution, it barely misses the phase this run. The models have been trending west with the northern piece, if that phases in that low is not going out to sea. Not with the PNA ridge axis centered over Montana. The models often rush pattern changes, if the ridge breaks down just a bit slower than modeled right now we could have a slow moving Miller B on our hands.
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I get the frustration, I’m frustrated too. It sucks that Fridays storm is going to cut, but it is what it is. We got a lot of posters having big melts, myself included. There’s nothing wrong with expressing frustration, but there’s still 3 and a half months of winter left! Is this threat a slam dunk? No, but it’s a legitimate threat with a high ceiling. We track, then yes, it looks like a mild stretch is coming. However, we can get big snows in bad patterns especially in January, so the shades remain open.
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Canadian has the storm a couple days later
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I know the models aren’t showing hits yet, but the 500s tell a different story. This look is REALLY close to something big for the shortwave diving down for the 27th threat after the big cutter. The western ridge axis is still quite far west, but it’s not offshore anymore. The NAO isn’t super negative but it is still negative which argues against a progressive solution (why I’m not buying the wave spacing issues, I’m thinking the northern energy will be much slower to enter the country). If that ridge pokes up a bit more and links up with the decaying block, I bet we will start seeing big solutions on the models. It’s really not far from doing so, it only needs a couple minor adjustments. This is a legitimate big dog Miller B nor’easter threat. That northern stream energy is quite powerful, and the teleconnections are in a transitory state.
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Snow east of the low? Nah no way -
Verbatim too progressive but it’s worth it watching this storm. This will likely change a lot until after the inland runner on Friday. The pieces need to come together, but if they do this storm has big potential, there is a lot of energy there.
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It’s not looking great right now but just like how the models were wrong about the epic pattern, they could easily be wrong about the nasty +epo look. We track
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Yep even my snow goggles aren’t strong enough to make this look good. A strong low in Michigan just isn’t what we want to see when looking for snow.
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March 2018 was amazing. It can snow in December, but climo is really unfavorable for anything big. March is more prone to massive blizzards. People can say im exaggerating, but that’s what March 13th 2018 was. I got so much snow it caused a gigantic tree in my backyard to collapse under the weight of the snow. It was also extremely windy, that was no ordinary nor’easter, that was 12+ hours of blizzard conditions.
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Shades are wide open. Nothing is showing right now but something could easily pop up and bury all of SNE. I don’t think the pattern is great but who knows maybe we can get lucky.
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Ukie showing a foot+ well east of the low? Either it’s on to something unprecedented happening, or Uncle has been drinking again. That foot+ in south Jersey has me convinced Uncle is back on the hard liquor!
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Yeah it should be we need a bigger boat not a bigger plow haha
