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George001

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Everything posted by George001

  1. George001
    Mixing getting into SNE is absolutely possible. In huge storms like this it can and does happen a lot, and the trough axis is pretty far west. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I’m keeping an open mind about the possibility given the setup and model trends. That said, if it happens it is what it is. I will be happy for the north.
  2. George001
    But….. it’s following the canonical front loaded Nina script, therefore I gotta ignore all guidance, stick to my guns, and continue being a raging insufferable asshole to everyone who disagrees with me.
  3. George001
    when the debate is whether we “only get 8-12” vs 18 ish, that’s a great spot to be in.
  4. George001
    Things change. A more northern track does introduce the risk for sleet/mix, it’s very common for SE Mass/cape to mix in these setups.
  5. George001
    Snows east of the low?
  6. George001
    Canadian looks even more north
  7. George001
    Gfs looks more amplified
  8. George001
    Ah I see what you are getting at. The STJ got active at times last winter too, and it was a La Niña with a La Niña subsurface. Point taken, It’s other factors that are driving the pattern, not ENSO. And that includes STJ activity.
  9. George001
    I don’t think Tony is entirely off base about the La Niña collapsing. While it is true that the surface is still solidly La Niña, the subsurface has warmed rapidly and is now warm neutral. I remember Chuck highlighted the importance of the subsurface a while ago. How big or small of a role do you think that is playing in terms of the now active STJ?
  10. George001
    It is looking increasingly likely that this upcoming blizzard will be the biggest region wide event since Jan 29th 2022.
  11. George001
    I agree, something big is going to happen.
  12. George001
    Bernie Rayno is favoring more of a northern track. He said in his video he’s not really buying what the gfs suite is selling.
  13. George001
    I’m not sure about the wagons south thing, it’s a massive storm. There is a lot of energy flying around.
  14. George001
    I just asked in the other thread how much you got, wow this ended up being a nice storm. I figured you got a lot, I was just outside the heaviest banding and got 5-6 inches. You were right in the middle of it, so this does not surprise me.
  15. George001
    Even non AI guidance has moved north. It’s still a whiff, but I like where we sit for this one. Btw how much snow did you end up getting?
  16. George001
    Looks like around 5 inches out there. I was a bit worried yesterday afternoon, but fortunately looks like the storm played out as expected here. Plowable snow + Pats W, what a weekend!
  17. George001
    I’m not getting anywhere near 8
  18. George001
    Isn’t he expected to get a plowable snow tomorrow
  19. George001
    Nah, it goes deeper than that. I literally spent time in the nuthouse and do not have this issue (I have literally told exes that I was severely mentally ill, and they became MORE attracted to me) so severe mental illness doesn’t justify being unable to pull. Dude needs to learn to work with what he’s got and lean into the hot+crazy vibe like I did. There are plenty of hot and crazy women out there for him, he just needs to accept himself and play the cards he was dealt.
  20. George001
    Completely different setup. The pattern is more progressive.
  21. George001
    I continue to stand with the Pope on this one.
  22. George001
    Great start to 0z.
  23. George001
    Yeah it did, I was kinda pissed when that one skunked my area, but that didn’t last. The next storm alone more than made up for the entire first half of winter, then we all know what happened. That truly was a once in a lifetime winter. Anyways, how are you feeling about this one? I like where we are at with this. There is a decent amount of support for a moderate event right now on guidance, with some upside if things break right.
  24. George001
    That kickoff system was modeled as a 12-16 incher in the mid range, and bumped NW last min leading to mixing and changeover to rain cutting down on totals in eastern areas. The follow up threat…. That went from 0-100 on guidance inside 5 days.
  25. George001
    I wouldn’t write this one off. The last one had serious wave spacing issues. The gfs isn’t the only model with a storm, AI guidance and Canadian are also on board. It’s a deep trough and there is a lot of energy.
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