George001

Nah, I changed my ways. I like warmer weather now. Sure if we actually get a blizzard I’ll be excited about it, but until there is overwhelming evidence (it’s actually snowing out with all guidance locked in) I’m not going to hype it up. In the long range it makes sense to assume any cold look will trend warmer and less snowy as we close in. Since I’m a warm weenie now, I might start making some torch threads when things are pointing in that direction.

Do these maps count sleet as snow? I would imagine a lot of the blue area to the south gets a decent amount of sleet.

Yeah, those 10:1 ratio maps didn’t work out. Snow ratios were much lower, and I don’t think we got as much QPF as the models said either.

Yeah, the NAM cuts the low to Chicago.

that’s gotta be nearly an inch of QPF as sleet here on the gfs, damn.

18z eps bumped north, gave much of SNE a 50% haircut.

The trough goes neutral over Texas, and then starts gaining latitude even on these 18z runs. The confluence did strengthen a bit, but it enough to stop the storm from gaining latitude out west? No, also these usually trend north in the short range. I think this trends more north, a good 150-200 miles from now until verification.

The shortwave is trending slower and more amplified, so even if the confluence does trend stronger there isn’t much holding it there. The blocking isn’t all that strong and like the Pope said, it’s east based. Strong storms gain latitude, they don’t just move west to east. To get snow for SNE we need the shortwave to not gain latitude from its position in the Midwest which doesn’t seem likely at all. Sure anything can happen, but at this point all signs point towards the north trend continuing.

It isn’t all that difficult to change. Just look at my posts about sports, I used to be very positive about the direction the Red Sox we’re going in, the front office, etc. but then I was faced with reality, and adjusted my expectations. I can easily do that with weather too, and I will do so. Sure, I’ll track winter storms but will do so with the understanding that most of them won’t snow here. I like rain too, so if it cuts to Montreal that’s great.

Well there isn’t anything we can do about it, so it’s illogical to get upset about it. Hobbies are supposed to be enjoyable, so why not make the choice to enjoy the weather we will get? Post 2016 winters have been dominated for the most part by extreme warmth, and I don’t see any reason why that will stop. There isn’t anything wrong with liking warmer weather.

Nah, I like rain and warmer weather now. Deep down, we know warmth will win out in the end so why not embrace it?

That is if it holds, there is no signs of the north trend stopping. Encouraging 12z runs today for us rain enthusiasts.

Yep, north trend continues.

Yeah, there is a lot of variation in climo even within New England. It’s kind of cool how I can drive even 20-30 minutes NW and go from 8 inches to nearly 2 feet of snow. Hasn’t really happened this winter, but it’s a fairly common occurrence. A good trend for one area leads to other areas getting screwed.

Yeah, like the Pope mentioned early the shortwave gains latitude.

Gfs has a low in Chicago

Not all of us, I like the way this one is trending.

EPS will be interesting, looks like the mid Atlantic special is becoming less and less likely. No snow for Philly and DC, and there is enough time for even more north shifts.

I haven’t seen the gefs yet, I’m interested to see where most members have the low location. I don’t think it will be in Chicago, but am expecting a bump north. Possibly over Buffalo.

Gfs made a big jump north, low in Chicago.

Agree, if anything the other models are trending more north. Imo this has room to trend even more north, the trough is going negative over the midwest. The gfs has a low over SNE, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up over Buffalo in the end. The gfs isn’t the best model but just looking at the overall setup and the ensemble guidance, a more north solution makes sense.

The Pope is right. That weak blocking isn’t going to be enough to stop a 975mb low from gaining latitude. Stronger storms move poleward, that’s what they do. The gfs isn’t really an outlier, the EPS made a big shift north the past couple of cycles and so has the Canadian. And when you take into account that guidance underestimates the WAR at this range, it can be argued that there is room for this to trend even more north. I guess it’s possible it goes back south, but I’m really liking this setup. Hopefully the Euro makes a bump north at 0z.

Yeah, I overhyped storms but you know what? We have been getting quite a bit of extreme, record breaking weather especially post 2016. Blizzards? Not really, we had a couple sure but record warmth has been the dominating theme. Reality has actually been the exact opposite of the cold and snow I have been hyping, and with our changing climate the record warmth will continue. There isn’t anything we can do about it, so I’m going to embrace it. Enjoy your coating to 2 inches of snow on Tuesday and heavy rain on 3/4. Im really excited about it, I hope the gfs is right about 3/4 and you pour.

Good start to the 0z suite, big shift north.