George001

The implication on later in the season is the part that interests me. Even if the NAO is negative for the reasons you mentioned I am leaning mild, but if we do get blocking in Jan-Feb that could derail my winter outlook (called for a big +NAO in Jan-Feb). Im not abandoning my forecast and jumping on board with a snowier winter just yet. However, as someone who is trying to become a more objective poster, I have to acknowledge that the latest polar polar vortex guidance is pretty much the opposite of what I expected to see.

It started as east based but is now basinwide.

Yeah, reading your outlook we are on the same page about the strength of the El Niño. It could be a bit stronger, but I don’t think it matters too much. It’s not going to be 2015-2016 or 1997-1998 strong, it’s going to be more 1965-1966 to 1972-1973 strong. I hear a lot of talk about the forcing, but I question how big of a driver it truly is on our temp profiles compared to the raw strength of the nino and -PDO. The plot that Raindance showed earlier of snowfall totals in Boston during El Niño winters for varying PDO values shows a clear correlation. I haven’t seen anything like that about the relationship between VP forcing and eastern US temps.

That’s true, he did say there would be a window. Hopefully we can cash in when the pattern becomes more favorable later in the month.

Paul said this is going to be a big one as early as late last winter, and welp here we are. It’s a big one, and Paul has been dead on about its evolution. He said it would build from east to west, and it did just that. It’s ok to admit that he was right. Yes, it’s not a pure east based nino, it’s now basin wide. But….. so was 2015-2016, the strength does matter.

This is why we shouldn’t think for ourselves and instead let Paul Roundy tell us what to think. Paul Roundy told me the nino would be super. I listened to him initially, then backed off based on my own observations and analysis. If I didn’t bother to do any of that and just waited for Paul Roundy to tell me what to think, I would have stuck to my guns and doubled down on this nino growing into a super event. Now, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening. It looked for a bit like it might top at strong, but it’s going super.

It’s possible, but betting on dynamics to overcome a marginal airmass is a losing proposition more often than not. The return rate for these marginal types of events is much lower than it is when we have a better airmass in place. The problem is a stronger more phased storm will be more tucked, and draw in more mild air. There is a window where it’s just phased enough to dynamically cool the column but also not so phased the low tucks in to much, but that window is very small.

With the December Atlantic ssts I need to see surface temps in the mid to upper 20s before jumping on board. Marginal events do not work for us in December. When you have marginal thermal profiles at this time of year, take the under on those 10:1 maps. That said, I’m glad ski areas are getting hit.

Solid threat for ski areas, but temps look too marginal for the coastal plain. In December I’d like to see modeled temps in the mid to upper 20s instead of low to mid 30s before I jump on board for my area.

938… holy shit

Yeah that’s ugly

Yeah the modeled jet stream configuration in early December is typical for stronger ninos.

Yeah idk what the whole Nina background state nonsense is about. All guidance has the southern jet strengthening in early December. That doesn’t happen in Ninas, this is a strong El Niño pattern.

I would be shocked if the winter pattern was even remotely nina like. This nino isn’t weak or even moderate, it’s borderline super.

I stand corrected. Yeah, looks like I’ll have to reassess the whole +NAO December idea.

I’m not entirely sure what I’m looking at here so feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but the forcing is the blue and purple right? Basically blue and purples = El Niño forcing, and you would expect more purple and for the blue and purple area to be more expansive in stronger events? The forcing looks to be weaker than 97 and 82, but it isn’t weak. It’s definitely farther west, but it’s stronger than 02 and 09.

I agree with Snowman here, and would agree with Tony in the scenario you mentioned. Even 7 days out is iffy, we monster blizzards 7 days out disappearing all the time in winter. On the other hand, some of our biggest blizzards were complete whiffs or inland runners 7 days out. The modeled blocking doesn’t show up until what 9-10 days out? You know it’s going to change a lot for better or worse, so why shouldn’t we be asking why it could be wrong?

That’s a great point. The guidance that is forecasting the big -NAO is 10+ days out. It’s always good to take any pattern on the models more than like 5 days out with a grain of salt. The models just aren’t accurate that far out. I also was on the +NAO torch December train. I am sticking to that forecast for now, if the big -NAO is still there 5 days out then I’ll have to reassess.

If it was Feb and the models looked like this I would be going big. In early December I’m betting on climo, the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, the -PDO, and the raw strength of the nino winning out. December typically sucks in coastal SNE especially during ninos. Even in our good stronger ninos, we got hit in Jan-Feb not Dec.

That said, those same extremely mild atlantic SSTs will help juice up storms. That could pay off during the heart of winter if the pattern is favorable enough. Definitely seems to be a boom or bust factor with climate change. I’m not very optimistic about this winter, but if I’m wrong it’s probably going to be Jan-Feb we get rocked, not Dec. Generally that is the case in El Niños, especially stronger ones like this one.

Trough over Alaska. I don’t like seeing that, makes me concerned that it won’t be cold enough. Is it possible that my concerns end up being overblown and I end up with a foot of snow by mid-late December? Yeah, but I don’t think that is likely. Hopefully the trough over Alaska ends up being west and weaker than that. That’s a valid point though, it’s not digging into the west coast like last year. The issue is marginal events straight up don’t work in December anymore. Not with those Atlantic SSTs, I would honestly rather see this pattern in mid March than early December. It’s not even that the pattern sucks, I’m kind of nitpicking. It’s just too early. It’s a good pattern, not a perfect one, and with the mild atlantic SSTs we need just about perfect.

This is not a coastal snow pattern. It’s not as deep as last December, but I don’t like seeing that trough out west. The pacific is honestly bad enough that even parts of New England such as Boston would likely be skunked verbatim. My gut feeling is the the I-95 corridor (mainly from Boston to DC) and SE of that has to wait until January. I could be wrong, I’m not a meteorologist, but the similarities to last December are making me highly skeptical of this pattern.

I’m not saying it’s going to be a full blown torch for the entire east coast, but it looks like an up and in pattern, not a coastal one. Lots of huggers, inland runners, SWFEs, etc. Nothing wrong with that, but with the -PDO and western troughing it’s looking more like a slightly more favorable version of last years pattern. Especially with the extremely mild Atlantic SSTs, I would bet against any snow in eastern mass. Elevation, CNE and NNE is a different story. For me to get excited about snow prospects closer to the coast in December, I need to see 2m temps in the -3 to -2 range and a favorable 500mb pattern inside of 7 days. For early Dec, it’s more -5 to -4.

It could work out, but I heard the same things last December. I fell for it and bought in last time, I’m not falling for it this time. Especially with the really warm ocean temps im not expecting much of anything for my area in December. Yes it’s a strong nino and not a Nina, but strong ninos especially -PDO ones have their own set of issues.

some of these maps being posted look like last years December pattern. I like seeing the -NAO, but I’m not buying in unless the pacific cooperates. Just not cold enough