George001

If the storm slows down just a few hours more than the Euro has it, this will be a large scale burial. It’s a tricky forecast though, because if it speeds up a couple hours, it’s a minor event. The middle ground solution is a high end moderate to low end major event. We need the storm to slow down so the strong high to the north has time to build in. Before anyone asks, yes I saw the 12z Navy. The Navy is way more north than the gfs is, which is a big red flag.

I am on board with this developing into a major storm. There are some timing issues, but the ingredients are there. Very amplified western ridge axis, strong southern energy, a piece diving in late trying to phase, and most importantly a mid 1030s mb high to the north trying to build in. That matters to me more than any qpf maps or snow maps, those are always wrong anyways. It’s a progressive pattern yes, but you can get big storms in progressive patterns. Gun to head, I’m taking the over on the EPS mean.

Can we get one god damn BN winter month?

Pope says no

We need the northern energy to phase in and not be a kicker.

deeper low? How much deeper are we talking here, 980s? If so, we may need to have an open mind towards 1 foot+ solutions if that does indeed happen.

Low location is good but I want a stronger low.

We have a decent chance at getting a big nina next year, after strong or super ninos Ninas often follow the year after, and often those Ninas gain a lot of strength. A good example is the 2010-2011 La Niña event. It came off a strong nino, and this Nina developed into one of the strongest La Niña events in history. That combination of a strong blocking, a strong La Niña pattern combined with an active southern jet (leftover from nino?) produced an one of the snowiest winters on record that year. That winter had 3 blizzards. I think a lot of people will be concerned about the strength of this coming La Niña. But I won’t be. La nina is not as bad of an enso state to be in as a lot of people make it out to be.

I would take 2014-2015 over everything else, but 2013-2014 is up there with 2010-2011 for my favorite winters.

I’m not entirely sure, I think around 20 or so inches?

30 is aggressive, but possible if we don’t waste more than 1 week in Feb. I’m leaning more towards the pattern remains bad until mid Feb based on current long range guidance.

Bos needs 2 warning events or one biggie to get up to 25.

Even 2022 although we got the biggie, it got warm and melted after. That wasn’t a sustained cold and snow stretch, we got big snow but it was sandwiched between warmth. Overall, it’s been mostly bad since 2016. My area getting a little lucky snow wise in winters like 2022 doesn’t change that. I want to see COLD and snow. Something like 2013-2014 even. That winter wasn’t the snowiest, it was moderately above average snow and very cold here. I understand that 2014-2015 is an anomaly, but a solidly BN temp AN snow winter would be nice.

For BOS maybe around 25 inches is what I’m thinking right now for the season. The upcoming pattern and threat appears to favor the interior again. I don’t think it will be an awful snow season for say Ray Will and others living more inland, but I do think the coast is cooked. I’m thinking there’s a sharp gradient somewhere 20 or so miles NW of me.

I think areas that got hammered in the big interior storm earlier in the month have a shot, but we are screwed. I average around 50-55 I think, it would take a very big second half to get there.

Jan 2022 was the last big one for me, I’d like to see a true big snow and cold month that is remembered fondly like Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Feb 2013, Mar 2018, etc. Its been a while.

Hm, that’s actually not as bad as I expected. BOS Probably ends up with 10 inches for Jan, which is below average but not a complete trainwreck like Dec. Im not excited about the models right now, but hopefully things change and we finish with a cold and snowy Feb and Mar.

Yes we toss, it will keep ticking north. 10-20 miles each run, at first the north ticks will be a good thing, but eventually we will want it to stop and it will keep going. Before you know it, I’m east of the low. There is no way in hell Barnstable is getting near a foot.

I know a lot of people here don’t like the Pope because he gets angry sometimes, but we need him. When the weenies get carried away hyping up the next potential blizzard, you can always count on the Pope to show up and smack us down with a heavy dose of reality. I said we would get 100 inches of snow last year, but the Pope smacked that idea down by simply observing the presence of geese in late November. He does things a little differently than most, and yes he has been quite cranky the past couple of years, but he is an excellent long range forecaster.

Looks like I’ll be needing to grab an umbrella if the Euro is right. Btw, I thought a bit more about the therapy and decided that I’m happy being a little nuts. If I ever decide I don’t want to be crazy anymore, I’ll PM you and seek therapy.

The Pope is angry today! Looks like that low is about to plow into SNE

Yeah, I would think CC warming would screw us on the coastal plain since we already battle temps more to begin with. Areas that would have gotten say half a foot of 34 degree paste years ago could easily rain in that same setup now, where as areas farther west may go from like 22 to 24 degrees. You have competing factors here, it’s getting both warmer (negative factor) and wetter (positive factor). There is a point where the increased precip no longer outweighs the warmer temps for snow potential, and us on the coastal plain are closer to that tipping point. Some areas farther south like DC are already seeing a decline in average snowfall, while say Bostons average snowfall over the past 2 decades has not declined at all (if anything I’m pretty sure it increased a bit). Whether or not the tipping point has been reached yet is unclear. However, I suspect that given how rapidly CC is accelerating, if we aren’t already there in Boston, it’s close. That said, even if this bad stretch is the start of a real decline in average snowfall, that doesn’t mean we can’t get great winters. Where I would guess we will “lose” most of our snow would be in average and below average winters with lots of marginal events, not in those 3+ BN epic winters.

Are you rooting for it to come more north?

Blue cross blue shield

Idk if you are being serious or not, but I looked into it a bit and I actually think dialectical behavioral therapy would significantly improve my quality of life. The not so small fees are gonna be a pain in the ass, but unlike the Red Sox, I’m willing to spend money. I think I’m going to take you up on this.