TimB

The green pixels don’t show up on pivotal, lol. But the temp is 20 degrees at that point.

The euro is one of them, it just puts the storm in a shitty place for us. But it has a storm.

Some stupid cold front. Good luck, lol.

Lock it in. What could possibly go wrong or change in the next 12 days?

The HRRR nailed it. I was skeptical, but hopeful.

Various regional forums on the website? NYC, where they just set a record for latest first measurable snow (if they see any at all)? The Mid-Atlantic, where the major observing sites are also currently at zero for the winter, and still have a shot at their first snowless winter in history? Or this one, where even the “haves” are at 50% of normal and the rest are closer to the first two places I mentioned? Yes, a comeback is possible. But in many places where a lot of people post on these forums, this is a historically bad start to winter.

We just have to accept the fact that this just isn’t going to be our winter. If we get a lucky break and catch a storm or two that turns an abysmal winter into a just kinda crappy one, great. If not, then hopefully we can nickel and dime our way out of being historically bad.

Indeed, snowing pretty good here. NWS didn’t seem too keen on this being a snow event, but it’s working out. Not much sticking to the warm ground.

Could we pick up a nice inch or so tonight or is this going to be a freezing drizzlefest?

Whole thing has been pretty meh today, despite the lake being wide open. We just can’t get the right parameters for anything to perform this winter.

You mean the term that’s forbidden (lol) in the regional weather forums here?

NWS has updated the grids from snow showers to “snow likely” for several hours this afternoon/evening.

Hard to take the later one seriously, it’s 9 days away and has positive 500 height anomalies up against well below normal temperatures, so it has mixing in areas with single digit temps.

Euro seems to give us our chances. A couple inches today, a minor system mid next week, and some weird looking system at the end of its run.

February is a short month, so spring is only 34 days away. And our snow total is 11.4” but probably a majority of the county has received less than half that.

If by astronomical winter you mean astronomical(ly bad) then I agree.

I’ll believe it when it goes away for more than 4 days.

Someone has to play the KPIT role. But yeah, I have no idea why this storm that we knew was going to be a fail pushed me over the edge.

Even when it’s over we’ll still have a permanent southeast ridge. That feature is set in stone for decades.

Once one model shows bad it’s over. Every. Single. Time.

Well I mean that’s the ensemble, not the long range operational model.

18z GFS proves the 12z wasn’t just a one off and still has us locked in an endless torch hellscape with cutter after cutter instead of what is supposed to be a cold pattern. Ensemble is on board too. Next Saturday now has positive height anomalies here. Unbelievable.

A quick calculation seems to indicate that we should finish January about +8 on temps and be in the running with 1998 for 2nd warmest January since official obs moved to the airport. Don’t think we can catch 2006.

The snow futility record for Pittsburgh is 8.8” in 1918-19, so we’re out of the running for that. What we do still have a shot at is the modern snow futility record of 16.6” in 1973-74 if you don’t trust the records from over a century ago. There’s also the 17.2” in 1990-91, 21.7” in 1988-89, and 22.4” in 2019-20 to round out the list of worst winters in modern history.

Sunday-Monday put PIT up to 10.3” so officially no, but I’m sure there are plenty of places in the county that are below 10” or maybe even below 5”. Looks like the NWS obs for today is going to be 1.1”, so we’d be at 11.4 officially.