TimB

12z guidance so far seems to be showing that we’ve crashed into the low teens or single digits by that timeframe.

Yeah, looks like the front comes through early enough that at least we don’t get midnighted on Saturday. I’m just concerned that we overperform if we get any sunshine and no snow cover. I didn’t realize the low max for Christmas Eve was so attainable (13). I knew about the 0 on Christmas 1983, but I didn’t realize just how impressive that was. Looks like the next coldest December high in the last 100 years was 7.

Am I the only one who isn’t all that impressed with the magnitude of the cold even behind the frontal passage? With the lack of snow cover, NWS is already going high on temps for the holiday weekend. Highs in the upper teens and lows in the upper single digits. Meh. We got cold of that magnitude pretty much every winter up until the last few winters when it became nearly impossible to get a high below 20.

The Euro solution has us dry slotting just in time for the potential snow. GFS also has the dry slot feature, but it’s still in a location where we can get some snow.

The problem I’m seeing with the back end snow potential is that the Euro, which sniffed out the cutter in the first place long before the GFS did, has started a disturbing trend of virtually no snow on the back end (about 1” on the 0z). For what it’s worth, the UKMET agrees with this garbage. So do the It’s probably prudent to lower our expectations yet again. Edit: with the exception of the GEFS, the ensembles are on board with this solution too. Probably the biggest gut punch since 1/19/19.

Yeah, I’d like to air a grievance about how we need to have absolutely perfect conditions to get a decent snowstorm around here these days. I feel like it wasn’t always this way. Everything cuts now. Hope our 3 days of cold is fun for everyone and then we get to watch the MJO slog through 4-5-6 for a few weeks.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday will be cold with an inch of snow on the ground. What, you wanted more from this winter?

3” would be acceptable. 1-2 would be a gut punch.

We’ll always take the bonus snow, plus decent model trends.

Well yeah, prevailing wisdom seems to be that February could be ugly so hoping we can have a solid January.

So how long do yinz think the warm spell that’s coming a few days after Christmas is going to last?

True. We were in the same boat last Dec. 17 and we made it.

I guess at the end of the day, maybe we just need to be happy with the fact that we managed to get two above normal snow seasons out of 3 Niñas in a row.

When I look at any of these snow depth maps for 12z Christmas morning all I can see is blades of grass poking through the snow and bare spots in any areas that may have gotten any degree of sun on Saturday or where the wind behind the Arctic front drifted the snow.

18z GFS looks like it’s coming in with the most boring depiction of this thing yet.

I like the “maybe it’ll shift back east” mentality better than the 1/19/19 “we may have lost the storm but at least we’ll get a couple inches on the back end with the Arctic front” mentality. Not sure the east shift is something we should count on, but getting some snow on the back end that the grass is still poking through is hardly a silver lining. Edit: Euro has barely any precip on the back end after the changeover. Maybe an inch. That’s probably the most likely scenario, not an advisory level amount.

GFS becomes the next domino to fall. Absolutely comical.

I would assume “it happened once on a GFS run” is more than enough to say it’s possible.

Unfortunately, we have to accept that it’ll probably cut further west than that. But it’s fun to look at for the next few hours. Kuchera is up over 30”.

Think we might have to cash in on our one opportunity.

Euro’s gonna be bad.

Compare and contrast TWC with the shitty new Apple weather app. One is very obviously leaning on the GFS and the other is very obviously leaning on the cutter/Arctic front solutions.

Almost identical. Scary. Maybe an even sharper temp gradient on the ICON.

CMC has that stupid cutter/Arctic front solution. Spits out a scenario where it’s 0 here and 60 in Philly on Friday morning.

Borderline cutter doesn’t sound too bad as long as it doesn’t cut too hard.