TimB

...and now the Euro brings another rain/mix storm across the region late next week, and is some 40 degrees higher than the last run for that timeframe. What’s more, there are only two days (Monday and Monday) where the low temperature drops below 15. Simply put, we’re not getting a cold snap and we’re not getting much snow this month. Unbelievable.

GFS seems to be a more active pattern but no significant snow events. The Euro puts us close to -10 Fri/Sat, the 6z GFS puts us there Sat/Sun before dragging yet another system with more rain/mix than snow up the coast early the following week. Edit: I lied, not rain since temps will be below freezing based on that model. But a half inch of snow and not that much QPF.

Alas, that magnitude of cold disappeared from the models (though I think we get at least one subzero morning at some point. What day or days that will be is anyone’s guess). And confidence seems to be increasing that we finally get a colder than average February after several unseasonably warm ones. And maybe some good snow! (Though, again, when and how much seems to widely vary.)

Incredibly rare in February, considering both of the February outbreaks in that table were actually the same cold wave.

I could take or leave extreme heat, but I was rooting for 100 when the models were showing it for a time this past summer.

Someone can probably verify this but I’m going to say anecdotally we haven’t been below -10 since that infamous day in 1994.

GFS is showing three days in a row from Feb. 14-16 that have PIT colder than any temperature ever recorded so late in the winter season. Obviously a long way to go until then and it will change about 100 times, but -15 on Valentine’s Day is unprecedented (at this juncture, the Euro also shows negative double digits that morning).

I’m aware that February 2015 was one of the coldest months relative to normal ever recorded at PIT outside of those ridiculous winters of the ‘70s, and that it’s still recent history. To be fair, I also thought we’d never see another May below normal and I was proven wrong last year (though we still almost ended up above normal despite an absurdly cold first half of the month).

And yet, even in that time period, there were never consecutive winters where the temperature never went below 8. What’s more concerning to me is that for the past 5 years, February has been basically the first month of spring (about 5 degrees above normal on average), and I’m concerned that it’s not going to change this year. Or that we’re in the midst of a second stretch in less than 6 years of 18 consecutive months above normal.

My apologies, I agree that it’s absurd. That was just me, a self-proclaimed unapologetic cold weather enthusiast venting my frustration that our shot at a true Arctic blast, and probably our last shot at subzero temperatures this winter, vanished right before our eyes. With that being said, the 1981-2010 average absolute minimum for DJF at PIT is 0, which would indicate that in approximately half of winters, the temperature drops below that at least once, so I wouldn’t say we dropped below zero “just” two years ago, as it’s statistically expected that would occur every two years. In fact, it’s very possible with this new trend in models that we could hit 3 years since the temperature even dropped to 5F at PIT (1/31/19 - _/_/22), and I’m wondering if that would be a record.

I like your optimism. I could even live with 47 on Tuesday if it’s followed by -15 by Saturday.

I would say more likely denied than delayed, as that’s what almost always happens in Pittsburgh. I firmly believe we’ll never see another subzero temperature here, or another February that averages below the calculated normals.

Yes, drives a low from the MO/AR/TN border to Lake Erie, which would put us firmly in the warm sector.

Is this level of model spread typical of Arctic outbreaks in this region?

Why is the latest Euro showing 47 for next Tuesday at Pittsburgh? What is happening?!?!?!