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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    The GFS and CMC show some crazy stuff sometimes, but I no longer see them as inferior.
  2. TimB
    Things have gone back to normal, back to rooting against the Euro.
  3. TimB
    I’ll also add that it’s probably dependent on who is doing the forecasting. I would guess that the NWS is a lot less likely to pull the trigger and forecast 90 when it’s going to be close but they’re only confident in 89, but local news media outlets will forecast 90 in more of those situations. Just a hunch.
  4. TimB
    Maybe give him and these politicians an all-expenses-paid trip to the Tri-Cities area in Washington state for the next few days and put them up in a place without a/c and then have them report back to us with their thoughts on climate change.
  5. TimB
    It’s an interesting point, definitely something I’d be curious about. Not that such statistics probably exist or are kept, but I’d be intrigued to see a statistical analysis of where our highs typically end up on days when we’re forecast and/or modeled to hit exactly 90, and see if that average is lower or higher or about 90 exactly.
  6. TimB
    True, I suppose technically there is an invisible force that makes it more likely to get to 89 than 90. That invisible force is probability. But I wouldn’t say we underperform any more often than we overperform either.
  7. TimB
    Well yes, but then again it would make sense that when the normals are 82 or 83, then 88 would be more common than 89, which would be more common than 90, which would be more common than 91, etc., right?
  8. TimB
    We hit 90 many, many times last summer. It looks like 17 times to be exact (including one in early June). We topped out at 88/89 a total of 13 times. Which is more typical? As I’ve said before, if we get to a day where my options are 99 and drenched in sweat or 100 and drenched in sweat, I’ll be right there with you rooting for it.
  9. TimB
    Indeed, 88 today at PIT. AGC also topped out at 88, so a slight underperformance at both.
  10. TimB
    Airmass looks a little more supportive of it tomorrow and/or Tuesday.
  11. TimB
    New record at Portland, 109, 13 degrees warmer than same time yesterday...
  12. TimB
    Well we’re 5 degrees ahead of yesterday at this hour and we topped out at 84 yesterday, so we could top out at your favorite number today.
  13. TimB
    Definitely changes the narrative on what we think of as possible when it comes to extreme temperatures, though I would guess that due to geography, Portland has a little more variability in summer temperatures and therefore a little more capacity to break an all time heat record by 8 degrees than we would (though if it comes to pass, it’s still very shocking). Meanwhile, we have a ridge of our own in our neck of the woods and a few shots at that 90 degree day you’ve been craving.
  14. TimB
    It’s extremely unlikely, every July day in Pittsburgh’s history except 7/5/1972 (high of 59) has made it to at least 63.
  15. TimB
    Portland has tied their all time heat record as of 5pm PDT.
  16. TimB
    70s at MDT on Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon PM.
  17. TimB
    We’re definitely in one of those areas on the fringes of different air masses in this pattern, so there’s still a wide range of possibilities for how this all plays out. The 12z GFS takes out the weekend rain so it’s definitely a little warmer but still a bit below average and relatively comfortable dew points, gives us a 4th of July weekend where everybody wins. (Though the entire pattern beyond midweek looks pretty trough-y.)
  18. TimB
    That’s the key, I would assume there will be some compromise between models like there always is and we get into the 70s most if not all days. That said, a dry and warm 4th of July weekend seems less likely than it once did. But models have struggled to get a grasp on pattern evolution lately.
  19. TimB
    Easier to cope with the heat through midweek when we know there’s a decent chance of light at the end of the tunnel.
  20. TimB
    Imagine breaking an all time heat record by 8 degrees, which is a possibility for both Portland and Seattle. To put that into perspective, Harrisburg’s record is the same as Portland’s at 107, so this is the equivalent of central PA getting to 115. At this juncture, all models show Portland breaking the 107 on both Sunday and Monday, and the high end of guidance (GFS) takes them to 118 on Monday.
  21. TimB
    Well then you’d like that run. Verbatim there are even afternoons in the upper 50s.
  22. TimB
    GFS actually, but with rain.
  23. TimB
    There are 7(!) days on that run out of the first 8 days of July where I don’t get to 70, and a few of them I don’t even get to 60. Again, a high in the 50s in July has occurred once in Pittsburgh. What that run actually does is it sets up that trough, but then reinforces it with a second, stronger trough out of the upper Midwest. But clearly it’s not without rain, so that gets in the way of the 4th. CMC is on board with the trough too.
  24. TimB
    At this point, I’ve concluded that Portland, Seattle, etc. will break all time heat records. The question is whether it will only be by a degree or two or by 5-8.
  25. TimB
    Then the trough advances enough to rain out the holiday weekend but not enough to suck out the humidity.
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