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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Oh man, it loads up a near-repeat of that pattern in fantasy land. Nothing but net from downtown.
  2. TimB
    Being between that trough and the massive ridge could be a home run for consistent rain chances, especially for me.
  3. TimB
    @Bubbler86that is quite the trough on the GFS. Doesn’t provide a ton of relief except maybe NE PA, but the 540 line enters Maine.
  4. TimB
    Correct. Highmark Stadium, looks roughly like a high school stadium. Perfect venue for a second tier American soccer team, IMO. As you can guess, the season tickets were fairly inexpensive.
  5. TimB
    Nope, that’s me. A Pittsburgh Riverhounds season ticket holder, as a matter of fact. LOL.
  6. TimB
    It really seems to only happen occasionally, mostly in the warm season, somewhere between morning observations/forecasts for the day and the 12z model runs and not every day.
  7. TimB
    To keep the sports talk consolidated to the same part of the thread, I guess this is the time to note the USA basketball team finally won a game.
  8. TimB
    After that cool June you guys had, I’m sure everyone is ready for the heat.
  9. TimB
    I just don’t follow severe the way I did when I was in Wisconsin, so I rarely look at the short range models for severe (unless there’s a rare blockbuster event in PA) and don’t even read the SPC discussions as much as I used to. As you said, at this point if I’m interested in knowing what’s going to happen during a severe event anywhere, I would trust any of the severe weenies on this forum.
  10. TimB
    “Event” of the season. Savor it if it happens. Good luck!
  11. TimB
    Unfortunately you’re probably right. Depending on the day, it could mean they’re fairly certain storms will develop and could but more likely won’t reach severe levels, or it could mean there’s a solid chance storms don’t develop but if they do, look out.
  12. TimB
    You gotta be careful with those MRGL risk days from the SPC. I say either you get severe thunderstorms everywhere or you don’t see a drop of rain. Nothing in between.
  13. TimB
    And hopefully that infamous Mount Joy rain shadow can be overcome too. I’m learning all kinds of things about the geography and microclimates of the hinterlands of this state.
  14. TimB
    Fingers crossed that you get the best rains out of that one. Those of us that are living in a tropical jungle, however...
  15. TimB
    Obligatory post after looking at the overnight mid to long range models. GFS doesn’t look as trough-y in the D7-10 period as the others and more ridging than troughing on both the 0z and 6z. Mostly garden variety heat and no prolonged heat signal, though the hottest day (7/26) on the 0z GFS is pretty darn hot (94 at PIT and MDT at 18z and triple digits as close as northern Maryland). But if that stuff keeps getting kicked into fantasyland, maybe we can run out the clock.
  16. TimB
    By the 1991-2020 normals, our normal high/low since Sunday has been 83/64, which is the highest it goes and runs through the 28th. On the 29th, it goes back to 83/63. Which means... the day when normal temps start dropping is within GFS range.
  17. TimB
    There’s optimism for your dry period going into next week, depending on how and where the ridge sets up.
  18. TimB
    Well you were spot on with the “our climo doesn’t allow for droughts” comment awhile back.
  19. TimB
    Pouring rain and some wind here. Looks like that storm got a warning after it passed over me.
  20. TimB
    But the map in question was this, so yeah, major brain fart. Some things just scream northerly flow.
  21. TimB
    Hypothetically there could and probably will come a day when this hobby is ruined by technology and, well, science. I’m glad I’ll be dead long before then.
  22. TimB
    And that’s true too. Presumably if two days hypothetically had the exact same atmospheric conditions at the exact same time of the year, they would always be exactly identical RE: observed weather.
  23. TimB
    Add to that, I should know better. The flow has W PA on the eastern edge of that ridge so of course the winds would be out of the north. Damn work getting in the way of hobbies again. LOL.
  24. TimB
    Bingo. Light NNW wind. I knew I was missing something. Thanks!
  25. TimB
    Just not sure I’m buying a situation where there are 594 heights (disclaimer: in western PA), and it’s sunny and 83 in the mid-afternoon.
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