TimB

The official NHC number is 150, though their latest update basically says this very well could become a Cat 5 before landfall.

Hard to tell if PBZ isn’t too keen on that scenario coming to fruition (I for one hope it doesn’t), if their forecast discussion is just bare bones as we know it so often is, or if they’re hedging their bets because we’re still 60-72 hours out from the onset of rain in our area from this storm. I’m leaning towards hedging their bets, as they do seem to have more to say about tomorrow’s event than they do about the remnants of Ida. But they’re not carrying anything more than 70% chances of rain when Ida moves through. CTP, as usual, has more to say on the matter. Beyond all that, I’m really worried that this will be a catastrophic event in Louisiana. It’s now up to a high end Cat 4.

Seems like a mixed bag of model solutions but a lot of them give us some taste of fall behind the remnants.

Well, Steelers fans, I think Haskins played his way off the roster tonight. It was a fun ride.

540 line approaching far upstate NY at hour 288 on the 12z GFS. Edit: it also delivers these goods later on, though these are the remnants of a second major hurricane that landfalls in Louisiana:

Any rain in Pillow?

This is nasty. I can see where there’d be flooding issues in areas where it’s sat for a long time. Also, daily climate report does confirm 90 was reached. I believe that’s #5 for the summer.

Knocking on the door of 90. The 25th was our hottest day of August last year as well.

Beat me to it. Love it!

Think it was a 4 day stretch last year with a 38, a 39, and 2 40’s. I looked at it the other day.

I feel like I did the research on 9/23/1989 at PIT and concluded that the T we recorded on that day was likely real. So the bar is higher for me.

An interesting point. In theory, a T would be enough for that to happen. Problem is, to get the +8 departure, the part of the month where a T is even conceivable would have to be hot.

I can tell you one thing. It won’t be below normal!

I think it’s good stuff, personally. But I feel like it might be much like debating whether September will be above, at, or below normal snowfall.

We probably shouldn’t be debating something that will almost certainly not happen anyway. Not sure about MDT, but there is exactly ONE September here that achieved a +8 departure (+12.4 to be exact), and it’s probably the most suspect weather record I’ve ever seen. I will never believe that September 1881 had the same average temperature as July 2020 here.

Your point is a good one, though I calculated the number needed from 9/8 to 9/30 in your scenario to be about +14: +8*30 = 240 -12*7 = -84 240 + 84 = 324 324 / 23 = ~14 Still extremely hard to do over a 23 day span.

Correct. 10 of the remaining days were +15 or more, and 3 were +25 or more. Pretty sure a +25 departure on just about any September day is basically impossible. That would be 107/88 on the 1st and 97/78 on the 30th at MDT.

What if I told you this was the first half of a February at PIT that ended up at +7.7?

So +8 on the late September low would be 61. Not exactly sweltering or far-fetched.

It’s not impossible. May 2018 was +8.9 at PIT relative to the old normals and looked like this: I would say if PIT can do it in May, MDT can do it in September. (Note that all 31 days were above normal.)

Going +8 on normals that increased by over a degree with the recent update would be a real feat.

And that’s saying something. On another note: Even not being an O’s fan, I’m confident that I know exactly what it’s like to be one.

It’s the only thing about Florida that can be safely discussed in this forum right now.

I would take a string of dry days with highs in the 60s/70s here over any digital snow at some other location, even if it’s 10 feet in Florida.

0z GFS Kuch snow map (look how close it is to the states):