TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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@Bubbler86 Looks like I’m hoping the CMC is onto something the other models aren’t for next week. But 59 here now and 71 later. Life is good.
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This is a family friendly site. 12z GFS also kills the heat as fast as it builds it.
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Tough to break that morning routine of waking up and doing a quick look at the models, even if my reaction at the moment is “Oh, it’s going to be hot next week? Who cares, this week looks fantastic.”
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Having 9 July days with highs in the 70s and 10 July nights with lows in the 50s was delightful, regardless of what happens in August. -
I know the EC isn’t your model of choice, but there’s a panel on it where it’s 97 imby. Still, going to enjoy a day at the lake today with a high near 70 and not think about next week. It looks ugly.
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@Bubbler86, the voice of reason. Heat looks much more transient the last couple GFS runs.
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Looks like MDT should finish July at +0.2 or 0.3, powered mostly by........ overnight lows.
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Don’t forget it also includes Leap Day!
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There weren’t many bright spots in the 12z GFS for those looking to avoid heat, but lock this (rain induced) fantasyland clown map in!
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MDT picked up 5.5” on Saturday, 10/29/2011.
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Cut off the first 5 days and that looks like an incredible September.
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Your first two weeks of September 2016 at MDT went 82, 80, 81, 83, 89, 91, 93, 94, 91, 94, 82, 81, 88, 90.
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Snowiest October day in PIT history is 10/31/1993 (6.6”). The last day without snow ever being recorded at PIT is 10/8. Last day without measurable is 10/17. Earliest is 9/23/1989, though I’m trying to confirm it wasn’t hail (67/41, and it dropped to 36 the next morning). But we know a mix can occur at 41.
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What is MDT’s earliest T on record?
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October in the south, late September in the north?
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Reminds me of an NCAA tournament now years ago, but Wisconsin went down 25-7 early against a 15 seed in the first round. I was never worried they’d lose that game, but sure enough they lost their second round game.
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I can’t see how they lose to the Czech Republic, but they should be completely overwhelming teams like that right out of the gate.
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I’m certainly not sold on the major sites in PA hitting milestones like 95 or 100 with any frequency, but I think the week of heat will be overall the hottest week of summer.
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Hopefully, as long as September isn’t like 2015... or 2016, or 2018, or 2019.
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Meh, the bigger thing is this prolonged cool down doesn’t look as prolonged or cool as it once did. We got to 80 yesterday, we’ll quite possibly get to 80 again today and tomorrow and maybe fall short on Monday. August heat after whatever cool down we do get could be stifling. I think I saw a 97 at MDT on the EC.
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Yeah, it’s going to be largely the same result over here (57 or 58, not 52 or 53). Models did slightly raise lows this morning over the last couple days, if I recall correctly, and I assume cloud cover was a factor in that.
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Just looked at the 5 min obs for MDT, and there is not a 59 anywhere in there. Looks like the scenario I posed yesterday is the reality on the ground.
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I feel like 6 degrees is a lot to miss the mark by, except in the obvious situations where there is uncertainty as to where a front will set up, or the amount of cloud cover is way over or underdone (not after a decisive frontal passage where the cold front is several states south).
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Forecast of 74 here today. It has reached 80.
