TimB

That is a well defined frontal boundary. Maybe if it stalls out we can get some rain.

By then there will have been days upon days of cool temperatures and sub-60 dewpoints. Will be interesting to see how that pattern evolves and how far onshore that ridge axis can get.

Not often you see that kind of blocking pattern in summer. I will relish every minute of it.

Meh, still day 12 fantasy land as far as I’m concerned.

The fact that anyone is talking about any fair other than the Pillow carnival right now is blasphemy! (but yes, late summer to early fall)

Ah, I only read “medical issue.” Didn’t read too deeply into it. Unless the virus particles landed awkwardly in her lungs, it can’t be covid.

The way I’m reading it, could it be covid?

It’s looking pretty consistent. I don’t think MDT can pull it off, but PIT may squeak out its 4th negative temp departure month of 2021, aided of course by the new normals.

I just looked at the 0z and it is very similar to the 6z. If that trough hangs on as long as depicted, I’m not sure I would complain about a few days of 90s following it.

It’s that, and we still have yet to string together more than 10 days of even 80+. (Which I’m okay with, and on the balance it’s been a summer of normal to just a hair above.)

No big heat at all. Just a more progressive pattern that brings the WA ridge closer.

Looks a bit more ridgy overall. Still not bad.

Hopefully those lines don’t persist for the next 240 hours straight.

Definitely a good laugh, but remember September 2019 (excluding the first and last days)?

I’ve noticed that too. There’s always at least a day or two of fantasy heat, but as the days and weeks pass it stays in fantasy land.

The more times this occurs on run after run, model after model (to varying degrees), the more I’m believing it isn’t a mirage.

GFS looks like it’s going to pick up another first down and stay in bounds on the 12z.

To the extent that the elevation thing could actually even negate the UHI effect, which I would assume was rather minimal in 1881. As I said, it’s more an issue of the location of official weather observations being moved from one place to a vastly different place. (But isn’t that true at MDT too?)

It’s very possible that there’s both a UHI and elevation component. Downtown is at about 800 feet, the airport is at about 1200 feet and 15+ miles west of downtown. That’s why I can’t just dismiss that old data entirely, which it’s my understanding was taken at “various locations in the city” (I should know where and when, but I’m afraid I don’t). And I guess that’s the rub here. It’s not necessarily that I think the data is invalid, but I don’t think it’s all that useful to compare the data for the reasons listed above.

If there’s a week this summer I’d like to be above average, it’s next week (I’ll be at Deep Creek). But if that’s not in the cards, and it doesn’t appear to be, dry is definitely a bonus. Revisiting your “we won’t hit 90 this summer” comment, it actually hasn’t been far off. Sure, we hit 90 a couple times before the end of June, but I don’t see any way we get there more than once (tomorrow) in July, and even that is very iffy.

We don’t need a heat wave anyway, that’ll make the upcoming return to masking quite uncomfortable.

At PIT, the period of record is 1871-2021, with 1948-2021 being at the airport, so it’s literally divided almost in half. The number of top 10 months that occurred prior to 1948 is as follows: Jan-7. Feb-8. Mar-7. Apr-7. May-7. Jun-10. Jul-9. Aug-7. Sep-10. Oct-7. Nov-5. Dec-7. That’s 91 out of 120 record warm months in half of the period of record, and only one month with less than 7. That’s why I’m skeptical of PIT’s data. Notably, I don’t think MDT has this issue.

That sounds about right. Of the 18 dates Pittsburgh has hit 100, 8 of them are still to come. Not sure how much I believe the 101, 102, 100, 97 from 9/5-9/8/1881, but that’s what’s in the record book.

Oh right, isn’t this the magic date where the tipping point is reached between “dates where MDT has hit 100” and “dates where MDT hasn’t hit 100”?

The other team still has all 3 timeouts, but we’re approaching the two minute warning on big heat.