TimB

I would assume that’s the case. But it’s not really a surprise when the GFS makes massive run to run changes beyond D7, so I have no desire to really look too far into it. If it were a pattern shift from a cold, snowy pattern in winter to a torch pattern, I might be more tempted to look at the details.

I know this is way late, but why in the world would there be any tears if, despite all the evidence for it, it turns out that scientists were wrong about one of the greatest threats to humanity?

GFS is back to spitting out a different look beyond 7 days with every run. It had a nice consistent look going for awhile.

Had this thought awhile back but I feel the two main issues would be 1) not much buy-in or 2) it wouldn’t work anyway because things devolve into off-topic banter without much warning and it’d be hard to contain. But wouldn’t be against giving it a shot. Would still have to be very careful with topics like covid because of how divisive they are. It would, however, potentially prevent people from having to read about the USA basketball team or the Pirates or Orioles or Steelers or Cowboys or masks or vaccines or the Pillow carnival if they don’t want to.

I don’t often look at CTP’s social media, or NWS social media pages in general, because of the aforementioned issue of the clueless masses chewing out mets.

@Itstrainingtime, exactly. Thanks for the correction.

I mean weather enthusiasts with even a moderate amount of understanding of the topic. I’m not talking about the jackasses who comment on NWS Facebook/Twitter posts. Pittsburghers bitch about weather, sports, anything more than most.

As with all politics-adjacent topics, the discourse is controlled by people who have spent their whole lives telling the people who cast votes for them what they want to hear.

Not saying it doesn’t happen, but in general I’m not a fan of criticizing people who are “experts” in their field when they are wrong about something we as a human race don’t fully understand or that inherently has a lot of uncertainty. I would argue that weather and covid are very similar in that regard.

The only thing I’ll say to this is, we don’t bash meteorologists when they’re wrong or reverse course on something.

Correct, some models significantly weaken the MCS coming out of the Upper Midwest (which makes sense given timing), while others don’t weaken it as much.

CTP seems a little more bullish on the severe potential tomorrow than PBZ. They even have the severe wording in point/zone forecasts. PBZ says primarily showers with a few thunderstorms.

Speaking of things that snuck up on me. Wonder if tomorrow goes ENH for anyone.

July 19-20, 2019 immediately popped into my mind. Similar?

No, and it was a sneaky dry stretch. I was actually kind of surprised to realize this morning that we’ve gone 10 days with almost no rain. I checked 3 weather stations close to me, and none of them had more than .10” for that entire stretch.

To beat a serious gold medal contender like Iran by such a wide margin is big. I see no way the USA doesn’t take gold now! /s

I hadn’t really thought about it, but my grass is a little crunchy now. I think I got a pop-up storm at some point in the past 10 days, so mine would be a bit higher, but PIT’s past 10 day precip total stands at 0.01”.

Not being in D3 and D4 could be the thing that saves us easterners from any ridiculous heat. I mean I know you’re in a somewhat dry period, but it’s got nothing on the situation west of the Mississippi. Especially in Pittsburgh, which I’ve been told just doesn’t get droughts.

Still no indication that heat really wins on the GFS or any other model. This time it’s the 0z that has a little more of it, for those who believe in that stuff.

As far as the heat in other parts of the country that we may or may not see in these parts, the NWS currently has an uninterrupted area of heat advisories and warnings stretching from the Canadian border in Montana to the Gulf coast in Mississippi, including all or parts of 16 states.

Still gets swept away later in fantasy land.

And it’s the one from the midwest more so than the Atlantic one.

I went to Michigan two days after my second jab when they were spiking and even ate in a restaurant (twice!) and didn’t get covid. But that’s certainly not reason not to be cautious, and I fully realize I was lucky.

Well said. I think we all hope/wish this was over. Unfortunately it’s not. A lot of us will probably get covid at some point. For those of us who are vaccinated and/or young and healthy, we can hope it’ll be a mild illness (though not a guarantee). For those who are not vaccinated, a risk is being taken. I worry about what the future holds with all of this.

My sympathies, @Ahoff. Just looked at the 5-min obs at KPIT and I don’t see anything above 86 as of 3pm.