TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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Meh, the bigger thing is this prolonged cool down doesn’t look as prolonged or cool as it once did. We got to 80 yesterday, we’ll quite possibly get to 80 again today and tomorrow and maybe fall short on Monday. August heat after whatever cool down we do get could be stifling. I think I saw a 97 at MDT on the EC.
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Yeah, it’s going to be largely the same result over here (57 or 58, not 52 or 53). Models did slightly raise lows this morning over the last couple days, if I recall correctly, and I assume cloud cover was a factor in that.
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Just looked at the 5 min obs for MDT, and there is not a 59 anywhere in there. Looks like the scenario I posed yesterday is the reality on the ground.
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I feel like 6 degrees is a lot to miss the mark by, except in the obvious situations where there is uncertainty as to where a front will set up, or the amount of cloud cover is way over or underdone (not after a decisive frontal passage where the cold front is several states south).
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Forecast of 74 here today. It has reached 80.
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How bad was the point and click on your high temperature? I feel like the NWS point and click forecasts struggle badly with the highs in a dry, post-frontal environment and almost always overperform, sometimes significantly. Trying to determine if it’s a Pittsburgh thing or an everywhere thing.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Seems we nearly always overperform on these days following a summer cold front, but rarely by a whole 6 degrees. Point & click at PIT is for a high of 74 today, but lo and behold, it’s currently 80: Edit: still clinched our below normal July for the first time in 7 years. -
Until I get bold and post some Pens-Caps highlights from just about any year but 2018 in there (no offense).
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I thought I recently read them complaining about how the pavement at BWI artificially inflates temps way too much. And don’t they also regularly whine about DCA’s snow measurement techniques?
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LOL.
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By then the basketball team will have possibly fallen short of a gold medal, I’ll have clogged up the MA forum with observations from the vacation spot they stole from Pittsburgh, the baseball trade deadline will have passed, and maybe Dwayne Haskins will have seen his first preseason action as a Steeler.
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Yeah, that gets ugly. Doesn’t translate to anything extreme, but a prolonged period of garden variety heat is just as bad.
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Maybe those are the thugs @candersonmentioned yesterday.
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You can almost see the relief from the cold front:
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Hmm, it doesn’t say if someone was in the port-a-potty at the time.
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Ah, good old Nanty Glo, metropolis of the Route 22 corridor. My grandparents lived in Altoona so I used to go through that area regularly on my way there.
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The more pertinent question is, does MDT actually get into the 50s for the first time this July?
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They beat up on Iran the other day, they’re fine. /s
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Yeah, it does look like maybe it stopped a split second before the power went out.
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I think I heard 5 injuries but no deaths that I’m aware of, so a small silver lining.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Nothing big today in the immediate Pittsburgh area for anyone who wanted it, but there are some spectacular days/nights ahead. Been looking forward to the 5-7 day stretch starting tomorrow since it first showed up on the models. -
“Bust” might be harsh. Yeah, central PA was highlighted early as a possible epicenter, so they got the location wrong, but the storm reports map isn’t all that dead:
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It seems to have a little more staying power than it did a few days ago, but the 18z also has consecutive days where MDT is at a (rain induced) 68 and 63 in the middle of the afternoon (though the two days before that are hot).
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There’s fantasy heat but it’s nothing extreme (for me).
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Looking ahead, after a few torchy runs, heat is back to being relegated to deep GFS fantasyland as of 12z and 18z. No serious ridging until late and the other models are pretty troughy.
