TimB
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Everything posted by TimB
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Other dude looks like he got knocked the F out. Guilty by association?
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The experience seems to be, we often underperform when forecast to hit 90 or 91, and overperform when forecast to hit 78 or 79. So that tells you everything you need to know. Getting to 90+ 5 days in a row here is hard, even in the middle of July.
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Yeah, I don’t think 5 days in a row of 93+ is in the cards at MDT. It becomes a more interesting case for me, as the average high here is 81, which would mean a high of 90 Tues-Sat. I don’t think that’s out of the question.
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Does JB use the antiquated “three days of 90 degrees or above” definition of a heatwave, or the official WMO definition? If it’s the former, then it’s well within the realm of possibility.
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Yeah, this “back end of August will be hot” prediction will unfortunately be true. Unfortunate because I don’t want heat, but also unfortunate because as I recall, it came from Joe Bastardi and that means he’ll be right on something.
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At your service. Ocala, October 2006:
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I remember that being an incredibly cold month in Madison, WI (where I was at the time). Data backs that up. Could see how one of those arctic fronts could blast into Florida.
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Wait, hold up a minute. It snowed in Ocala, Florida in October?!
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I can even deal with that, given that it’ll still be well into the 80s there in October, so it’ll never really feel like Halloween.
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That’s a little different from having Halloween decorations in my house on September 2nd. (She does wait a little longer on the outside ones.)
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Might help keep my wife from putting up Halloween decorations ridiculously early.
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Yeah, that GFS run looked better.
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Yeah, but take that with a grain of salt. That model is known for doing that.
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Not saying I’m buying what the 3k NAM is selling, but that is a monster.
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That might be a bridge too far. Haskins is 100% my guy in 2021 if Ben gets hurt. Mason Rudolph is a high floor, low ceiling quarterback. Neither is the permanent solution IMO.
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Just like winter, when the models start to go sour you have to pretend you’re not seeing it. Until it shows up on several runs, and several models. Could this be the start of that?
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Hidden messages in any of my posts? Never!
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(But also, it could be argued that climate change would make weather more uncertain, at least in the short run.)
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No, that was actually a comment on science and technology advancing. But I fully enjoy that interpretation.
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And that’s the fun in it. As I’ve said before, this hobby will suck someday when we as a human race make it less uncertain.
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I’m not a hurricane expert, but wouldn’t Henri’s current location and projected path make rapid intensification a bit more difficult? That said, all kinds of hurricanes have rapidly intensified in recent years, so you can never rule anything out.
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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021
TimB replied to Ahoff's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I’m thinking yesterday was close. We also got a sneaky 82 on Tuesday, and I think we made 80 on a day behind a cold front a few weeks back that was only supposed to get to 74-75. -
Absolutely correct. I don’t think heat is the biggest part of that equation, or even top 10. Pretty sure Africa and the Middle East aren’t the way they are exclusively or even mostly due to heat.
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https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/feeling-hot-can-fuel-rage/
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I would actually rank the likelihood of those three items in the order you just mentioned.
