TimB

If there’s a week this summer I’d like to be above average, it’s next week (I’ll be at Deep Creek). But if that’s not in the cards, and it doesn’t appear to be, dry is definitely a bonus. Revisiting your “we won’t hit 90 this summer” comment, it actually hasn’t been far off. Sure, we hit 90 a couple times before the end of June, but I don’t see any way we get there more than once (tomorrow) in July, and even that is very iffy.

We don’t need a heat wave anyway, that’ll make the upcoming return to masking quite uncomfortable.

At PIT, the period of record is 1871-2021, with 1948-2021 being at the airport, so it’s literally divided almost in half. The number of top 10 months that occurred prior to 1948 is as follows: Jan-7. Feb-8. Mar-7. Apr-7. May-7. Jun-10. Jul-9. Aug-7. Sep-10. Oct-7. Nov-5. Dec-7. That’s 91 out of 120 record warm months in half of the period of record, and only one month with less than 7. That’s why I’m skeptical of PIT’s data. Notably, I don’t think MDT has this issue.

That sounds about right. Of the 18 dates Pittsburgh has hit 100, 8 of them are still to come. Not sure how much I believe the 101, 102, 100, 97 from 9/5-9/8/1881, but that’s what’s in the record book.

Oh right, isn’t this the magic date where the tipping point is reached between “dates where MDT has hit 100” and “dates where MDT hasn’t hit 100”?

The other team still has all 3 timeouts, but we’re approaching the two minute warning on big heat.

Looks like a quiet, mostly warm and dry transitioning to cool and dry week ahead, so the only semi-interesting questions would be do we hit 90 and do we finish July above or below normal? I’m taking the under on both (at PIT) as it stands now, though it’ll be close.

That depiction looks like an incredible, several day period of cool days and chilly nights.

Pirates won’t get the sweep today, but won a series against the MLB-best Giants.

Still, I’m encouraged by the idea that warm and dry may soon be replaced with cool and dry. I won’t be spending a lot of time in the lake with the look the models are giving, but should be great weather for any other outdoor activity if it stays fairly dry.

NWS doesn’t seem too keen on it for you guys, that’s for sure.

Only downside is this 240 hour QPF map from the CMC where no location in PA gets even an inch of rain (and some areas much less):

Actually a fair number of dews in the 30s in central PA with that look.

Even the Euro is in on the action. This is NOT rain aided, with dews in the 40s:

Big 3rd down conversion on the 12z GFS.

I’d say replace it with AstroTurf but wouldn’t want someone to tear an ACL. Just need a few first downs. That’s all.

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Sounds like we just got the ball back with a one score lead and about 5 minutes of playing time remaining.

I was excited because the D7-10 period looked a lot better again. Just have to hope the fantasyland thing is a mirage.

And that fantasyland GFS. Verbatim I’d see temperatures that have only occurred here in one year since 1995.

An opportunity to gamble? I’m not against it. Wonder if anything exciting is happening in Paw Paw that week. Maybe can take a few days off this coming week to squeeze in a trip to the Pillow Carnival.

Forgot I’ll be posting in there for the week.

Saturday-Saturday on the rental. The wife and I haven’t ruled out not staying the whole week, depending on how much family drama comes with us all being in a house together. But yeah, it’s shaping up to be an unsettled week weather-wise. But you really can’t go down there for a week and not get rained out a day or two, from my recollection of my youth.

Interestingly, the front stalls in such a location that if it occurred as depicted (which I’m very sure it won’t), PIT would miss out on a record low max only because of a midnight high, but it would stay warm enough in eminent domain land not to spoil my vacation.

What’s more, this is the pattern on that day: it’s rain induced, but 40s in northern PA in mid-afternoon in August?