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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    Yeah, there’s the whole timing of soundings/balloon launches thing. But if the initial data doesn’t change much, then why does the model result sometimes change wildly? That’s what I’m confused about.
  2. TimB
    Most of CTP, unfortunately.
  3. TimB
    I don’t buy them either, but devil’s advocate and all. And yes, I do think the two overnight GFS runs were almost identical.
  4. TimB
    God, I hope buffets are largely a casualty of covid. Places where you can not only increase your risk of getting covid, but increase your risk of death if you do get covid.
  5. TimB
    Also, if the CMC puts any ridge close to us the first weekend of August, it won’t be the Atlantic ridge but the Midwest one.
  6. TimB
    Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z.
  7. TimB
    Same old, same old. Pattern we’ve had all summer.
  8. TimB
    If this sets up in winter:
  9. TimB
    8/7 precip. Definitely not a good look for many, except a bullseye very close to a certain location:
  10. TimB
    That is a well defined frontal boundary. Maybe if it stalls out we can get some rain.
  11. TimB
    By then there will have been days upon days of cool temperatures and sub-60 dewpoints. Will be interesting to see how that pattern evolves and how far onshore that ridge axis can get.
  12. TimB
    Not often you see that kind of blocking pattern in summer. I will relish every minute of it.
  13. TimB
    Meh, still day 12 fantasy land as far as I’m concerned.
  14. TimB
    The fact that anyone is talking about any fair other than the Pillow carnival right now is blasphemy! (but yes, late summer to early fall)
  15. TimB
    Ah, I only read “medical issue.” Didn’t read too deeply into it. Unless the virus particles landed awkwardly in her lungs, it can’t be covid.
  16. TimB
    The way I’m reading it, could it be covid?
  17. TimB
    It’s looking pretty consistent. I don’t think MDT can pull it off, but PIT may squeak out its 4th negative temp departure month of 2021, aided of course by the new normals.
  18. TimB
    I just looked at the 0z and it is very similar to the 6z. If that trough hangs on as long as depicted, I’m not sure I would complain about a few days of 90s following it.
  19. TimB
    It’s that, and we still have yet to string together more than 10 days of even 80+. (Which I’m okay with, and on the balance it’s been a summer of normal to just a hair above.)
  20. TimB
    No big heat at all. Just a more progressive pattern that brings the WA ridge closer.
  21. TimB
    Looks a bit more ridgy overall. Still not bad.
  22. TimB
    Hopefully those lines don’t persist for the next 240 hours straight.
  23. TimB
    Definitely a good laugh, but remember September 2019 (excluding the first and last days)?
  24. TimB
    I’ve noticed that too. There’s always at least a day or two of fantasy heat, but as the days and weeks pass it stays in fantasy land.
  25. TimB
    The more times this occurs on run after run, model after model (to varying degrees), the more I’m believing it isn’t a mirage.
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