TimB

God, I hope buffets are largely a casualty of covid. Places where you can not only increase your risk of getting covid, but increase your risk of death if you do get covid.

Also, if the CMC puts any ridge close to us the first weekend of August, it won’t be the Atlantic ridge but the Midwest one.

Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z.

Same old, same old. Pattern we’ve had all summer.

If this sets up in winter:

8/7 precip. Definitely not a good look for many, except a bullseye very close to a certain location:

That is a well defined frontal boundary. Maybe if it stalls out we can get some rain.

By then there will have been days upon days of cool temperatures and sub-60 dewpoints. Will be interesting to see how that pattern evolves and how far onshore that ridge axis can get.

Not often you see that kind of blocking pattern in summer. I will relish every minute of it.

Meh, still day 12 fantasy land as far as I’m concerned.

The fact that anyone is talking about any fair other than the Pillow carnival right now is blasphemy! (but yes, late summer to early fall)

Ah, I only read “medical issue.” Didn’t read too deeply into it. Unless the virus particles landed awkwardly in her lungs, it can’t be covid.

The way I’m reading it, could it be covid?

It’s looking pretty consistent. I don’t think MDT can pull it off, but PIT may squeak out its 4th negative temp departure month of 2021, aided of course by the new normals.

I just looked at the 0z and it is very similar to the 6z. If that trough hangs on as long as depicted, I’m not sure I would complain about a few days of 90s following it.

It’s that, and we still have yet to string together more than 10 days of even 80+. (Which I’m okay with, and on the balance it’s been a summer of normal to just a hair above.)

No big heat at all. Just a more progressive pattern that brings the WA ridge closer.

Looks a bit more ridgy overall. Still not bad.

Hopefully those lines don’t persist for the next 240 hours straight.

Definitely a good laugh, but remember September 2019 (excluding the first and last days)?

I’ve noticed that too. There’s always at least a day or two of fantasy heat, but as the days and weeks pass it stays in fantasy land.

The more times this occurs on run after run, model after model (to varying degrees), the more I’m believing it isn’t a mirage.

GFS looks like it’s going to pick up another first down and stay in bounds on the 12z.

To the extent that the elevation thing could actually even negate the UHI effect, which I would assume was rather minimal in 1881. As I said, it’s more an issue of the location of official weather observations being moved from one place to a vastly different place. (But isn’t that true at MDT too?)

It’s very possible that there’s both a UHI and elevation component. Downtown is at about 800 feet, the airport is at about 1200 feet and 15+ miles west of downtown. That’s why I can’t just dismiss that old data entirely, which it’s my understanding was taken at “various locations in the city” (I should know where and when, but I’m afraid I don’t). And I guess that’s the rub here. It’s not necessarily that I think the data is invalid, but I don’t think it’s all that useful to compare the data for the reasons listed above.