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TimB

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Everything posted by TimB

  1. TimB
    There’s always the hope against hope that maybe, just maybe the one run (so far) of the operational GFS that makes it cold from the 18th on (and differs wildly from the ensemble at this juncture) is right.
  2. TimB
    Toss. 1” area needs to be about 10 miles north.
  3. TimB
    So true. In this case, just a weak cutoff low that meanders through the southeast for days.
  4. TimB
    That is one ugly look next week on the Euro:
  5. TimB
    As strongly as I feel Ben needs to retire, it was nostalgic to see him play like his old self in the 4th quarter. We won’t see that many more times.
  6. TimB
    It’s a cruel world we live in, where both El Niño and La Niña happen to create garbage winters in our region.
  7. TimB
    Also, yet another ridge is building over the Midwest on that panel.
  8. TimB
    So it’s come to not only posting a 384 hour GFS map, but having to extrapolate it, to have any hope in December.
  9. TimB
    I’m curious what @Blizzard of 93’s thoughts are on the 12z GFS.
  10. TimB
    Our last 2” snowfall was February 9th. Today will be day #299 without a 2 inch or more snowfall, which will rank 24th all time. Get to 316 and we crack the top 10, which currently includes 4 different times this century.
  11. TimB
    Wednesday looks DOA at this point. And it’s hard to buy what some runs of the operational models are trying to sell for the upcoming weekend when they are so badly out of sync with the ensembles. We need a massive pattern change.
  12. TimB
    In short, yes. And it’s a downgrade from 0z.
  13. TimB
    It’s slipping away, unless one believes the GFS. I’m hesitant to buy what the Euro is trying to sell me for next weekend, because the general pattern just doesn’t seem conducive to it.
  14. TimB
    Best yet, the weekend is now in play…
  15. TimB
    I mean if this thing does end up sliding south, I’d rather it slide way south so the MA folks don’t steal all the snow.
  16. TimB
    Way too early to give up when some models still show a decent snowfall.
  17. TimB
    The coldinista in me would take 30s and dry over 50s-60s and rainy (and maybe even over 50s-60s and dry), and a colder solution does cut into any chance of a +8 December.
  18. TimB
    Maybe it can trend 500 miles SE too. 6z GFS has the front clear through by then.
  19. TimB
    Indeed, I almost forgot how many times I’ve been worried about a storm being rain and then it ultimately misses south. I think the last real storm of last winter did that (the one in late Feb following the storm that badly missed north). With that being said, as you stated, the GFS still presents an interesting solution and has been extremely consistent on nearly the entire pattern for days.
  20. TimB
    That’s a massive shift. Saw that on the Ukie as well. A cold but dry midweek looks very possible. Which will be good for canderson’s cat and Ahoff’s flight.
  21. TimB
    Wait, did this thing more or less disappear from the Euro last night?
  22. TimB
    For what it’s worth, CPC’s week 3-4 outlook is .
  23. TimB
    Euro jams that weekend cutter through the Midwest and ensures the warm weekend everyone else is on board with, though it’s quite cold on the back end.
  24. TimB
    Still, no indications of much good over the next two weeks.
  25. TimB
    At the end of the day it’s not as horrible as some runs have been.
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